1. Today’s Market Comments Copper prices experienced a breakthrough rise this week, breaking through the shock range in August. On Monday, Shanghai Copper opened higher in the London market due to the summer bank holiday. Copper prices achieved a breakthrough in one fell swoop. Shanghai copper adjusted slightly on Tuesday and continued its upward trend on Wednesday, favorably affected by the rebound in China's official purchasing managers' index in August. That night, Lun copper also rose sharply following Shanghai copper, breaking through the shock range in August and hitting a new rebound high since April. The main Shanghai copper contract CU1012 closed at 59900 on Friday, up 2070 points from last Friday's closing, with 194406 positions held and an increase of about 35000 positions. Shanghai Copper's trading volume for the whole week was 1.832 million lots, a decrease of 43,650 lots from the previous week, and positions were 346,000 lots, a decrease of 5,784 lots. This week, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory decreased by 4,665 tons to 105,917 tons. LME March copper price closed at US$7,692, up US$247 for the whole week. 2. Basic data 1. Copper spot data Domestic spot market price statistics (copper) ———————————————————————————————— Date Shanghai Stock Exchange Futures Price Yangtze River spot price Huatong spot price Guangdong spot price———————————————————————————————— August 30 59060 59000 59050 59350 08 September 31st 58680 58650 58680 58850 September 01st 59500 59600 59540 59750 September 02nd 59920 59800 59800 59950 September 03rd 59770 59700 59650 59800 —————————— ———————— -------------------- Monthly copper (USD) 7692 47 Previous day's LME copper inventory (tons) 397675 -1800 Previous day's crude oil (USD) 74.60 -0.28 Previous day's US dollar index 82.01 -0.40 CRB index 506.95 3.73 US Dow 10447.93 127.83 Shanghai Composite Index 2655.39 -0.39 3. Important economic data and events: The August employment report released by the U.S. government on Friday showed that non-farm employment fell for the third consecutive month, with a decline of 54,000, but the decline was significantly lower than market expectations of 110,000. The U.S. in July Nonfarm payroll employment was revised down to a decline of 54,000, compared with a preliminary decrease of 131,000. The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 9.6% in August as expected, after remaining at 9.5% in the previous two months. In August 2010, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) released China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) at 51.7%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The new orders index rebounded. This month's new orders index was 53.1%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month. The new export orders index rebounded. This month's new export orders index was 52.2%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month. The finished goods inventory index continued to decline, and the decline expanded. The inventory index of finished goods this month was 46.9%, down 3.0 percentage points from the previous month. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) announced on Wednesday that the manufacturing index in August was 56.3, which was expected to be 53.0. The manufacturing index in July was 55.5. The US Department of Commerce announced on Wednesday that US construction spending decreased by 1.0% in July to US$805.2 billion, which was expected to decrease by 0.5%. The June data was revised to decrease by 0.8%, and the previous value was an increase of 0.1%. The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on Thursday that U.S. factory orders increased by 0.1% in July, while market expectations were for a 0.3% increase. Durable goods (durable goods) orders in July were revised to a rise of 0.4%, compared with the initially reported increase of 0.3%. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced on Thursday that the pending home sales index in the United States in July increased 5.2% from the previous month to 79.4, down 19.1% from the same period last year. The U.S. Department of Labor announced on Thursday that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell to 472,000 in the week of August 28 (estimated to be 475,000), which was revised to 478,000 the previous week (initial value was 473,000). The four-week average of initial jobless claims in the United States fell to 485,500 in the week of August 28, which was revised to 488,000 the previous week (the initial value was 486,750). The number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States fell to 4.456 million in the week ending August 21 (estimated to be 4.44 million), from a revised 4.479 million the previous week (previous value was 4.456 million). 4. Technical Analysis Copper prices fluctuated slightly on Friday. The fact that the price does not fall is a sign of strength and a confirmation of a pullback after the breakthrough of the 60,000 yuan mark. At present, the bears have not significantly suppressed them. On the contrary, the bulls are in a relatively active position. As the traditional consumption peak season approaches, copper prices are expected to perform better.

The non-farm payrolls data released by the United States on Friday was stronger than market expectations. LME Copper continued to rise, and the US Dow Jones Industrial Average also rose by more than 100 points. The index price returned to the middle track of the Bollinger Band, which indicates that the US stock market will remain strong. It will maintain a good trend of fluctuation in the short term, and the market outlook will not become a stumbling block to the strengthening of copper prices. From the daily K-line chart of the domestic Shanghai Composite Index, we can see that the index currently stands above the moving average system. Although the Bollinger Bands are currently tightening, the index is above the middle track, and the MACD indicator shows green. Continuing to shorten, the index fluctuates and strengthens, which provides a better external environment for copper prices to rise. Judging from the current trend chart of Lun Copper, the opening of the Bollinger Bands has begun to expand, indicating that a new round of rebound will occur and prices will rise. The MACD and KDJ indicators also continue to improve, and the moving average system also has good support for copper prices. effect. From the perspective of the external macro-financial environment, the US Dow Jones Industrial Average is in the midst of a volatile rebound, and the domestic stock market has not shown any obvious signs of decline. Therefore, the current trend of the US dollar is more critical. The current trend of the US dollar has seen a sharp correction in the index. The current moving average has fallen below the moving average system and the middle track of the Bollinger Band, indicating that the price is expected to fall further. The current red column of the MACD indicator continues to shorten, indicating that the index will also fall further in the future. . China is about to release CPI data for August, which may be a negative factor. Therefore, copper prices may fluctuate upward in the several trading days before the data is released. Shanghai copper fell slightly on Friday, but the price was still near the upper track of the Bollinger Bands and also stood above the moving average system. The technical indicators still remained good. The two small negative lines on Thursday and Friday did not break the positive line on Wednesday, indicating that the price It is still in a strong position. The negative line in these two trading days is just a high adjustment. The price is still expected to continue to rebound, but the rebound process will not be smooth sailing, so you need to pay attention to the rhythm during operation. If the central bank raises interest rates after the CPI data is released, it will have a certain negative impact on prices. However, if the central bank still does not act, then the negative data may also become a bullish stimulus. When inflation comes, copper will become an excellent If there are value-preserving varieties, the price of copper will rise further. So the key to data is how the market interprets it. Judging from the weekly K-line chart of Shanghai Copper, the copper price this week broke through the previous shock range, and the price also stood above the moving average system. In the moving average system, except for the 20-week moving average, which is still downward, other short-term and medium-term weekly K-line moving averages have been The hook is upward, and the MACD indicator still maintains the red column, indicating that the price is still rising.

5. Suggestions for market outlook operations Global Metal Network www.ometal.com/ Based on the above analysis, I personally believe that copper prices are still expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in the market outlook. Therefore, in operation, you can still mainly go long on dips, but when the price rises sharply, Long orders should still take profits and exit first, and continue to cover their positions when the price falls