At present, the price increase range and category of agricultural and sideline products are rare over the years. Experts believe that there are five reasons for the overall increase in the prices of agricultural and sideline products.
The provincial development and reform commission collected the information and data of the price changes of agricultural and sideline products and agricultural means of production in our province in early May, and compared it with the average price of agricultural and sideline products in the whole province in late April. The conclusion is that the prices of agricultural means of production such as grain, cash crops, livestock and poultry, vegetables, aquatic products, chemical fertilizers and pesticides have increased greatly. Among them, the prices of wheat, corn and dried potato increased by 4.67%, 1.33% and 44.44% respectively. However, the prices of soybeans, mung beans, special flour and special flour decreased, and the average price of flour decreased by about 6%.
Among cash crops and processed products, the price increases of peanuts, peanut oil and flue-cured tobacco all exceeded 20%, exceeding the average increase of sesame and peanuts 16.4%, with the highest increase in April.
The most direct price changes affecting residents are pork, mutton, rabbit meat and chicken and duck eggs, which have increased by 10%, 13.43%, 5%, 24.565, 438+0%, 20.37% and 23.6% respectively. After a slight increase in the price of eggs in mid-April, it has recently shown a rapid and sharp upward trend, and the price increase covers all parts of the province. It is preliminarily estimated that the price of eggs in the whole province will increase between 1 yuan-1.3 yuan per kilogram. Since May, pork prices have been rising all the way, with the increase of Jinan, Qingdao and other big cities exceeding 16%. The increase of meat prices in supermarkets, specialty stores, rural markets and farmers' markets throughout the province is generally between 13%-8%, which is higher than during major festivals.
The data shows that the prices of Chinese cabbage, Chinese cabbage, spinach, rape, cucumber, pumpkin, carrot, mung bean sprouts and chrysanthemum have also increased to varying degrees. Experts believe that seasonal vegetable prices are generally lower, and it is normal for anti-seasonal vegetable prices to be high. The phenomenon of seasonal vegetable prices rising this year is beyond the normal range and deserves attention.
In seafood, the prices of small yellow croaker, large yellow croaker, black herring, grass carp and silver carp increased by 4.09%, 92.6 1%, 90.54%, 3.67% and 20% respectively. The prices of carp, crucian carp, hairtail and laver increased by 1. 19%, 28.59%, 5.89% and 54.68% respectively, which is also a rare increase this year.
Recently, the price increase of agricultural means of production is also relatively high. The prices of domestic urea, ammonium bicarbonate, phosphate fertilizer and compound fertilizer increased by 5%, 6. 12%, 65% and 7.95% respectively. The prices of trichlorfon, dichlorvos and omethoate in pesticides increased by 4.55%, 10.84% and 2.38% respectively.
In view of the rising prices of agricultural and sideline products, the provincial development and reform commission conducted a follow-up survey on the market and found that the supply of grain and oil, meat and eggs, vegetables and agricultural means of production was tight in all kinds of markets in the province. Whether it is sufficient and whether the purchase and sale order is normal. So far, there has been no panic buying. In addition, the reporter learned from relevant parties that at present, 60% of the goods on the market are in a balance between supply and demand, and 40% are in oversupply, and there is basically no shortage of supply.
Why are the prices of agricultural and sideline products generally rising? Many experts interviewed by the reporter analyzed that the prices of agricultural and sideline products have risen sharply recently due to five major reasons.
First of all, the policy of benefiting farmers has led to a "recovery" increase in food prices. The general view is that the price increase of agricultural and sideline products is the normal return of China's agricultural products prices hovering at low prices for a long time. Now the rising prices of agricultural products are a positive response to the policy of benefiting farmers.
Second, the sharp increase in demand for agricultural products has pushed up prices. Due to the development and utilization of bioenergy, the demand for agricultural products such as corn has increased greatly, which has led to the rise of corn prices, which in turn has led to changes in the prices of agricultural products such as feed and caused a chain reaction.
The third is that the appreciation of the renminbi has led to an increase in the prices of agricultural products. The appreciation of RMB not only increases the export cost of agricultural and sideline products, but also attracts a large amount of foreign exchange to be converted into RMB for domestic circulation. Under the condition that the quantity of agricultural and sideline products remains unchanged, the rise of RMB means the general increase of agricultural and sideline products prices.
Fourth, the overall rising factors drive the prices of agricultural and sideline products to rise. In fact, this round of price increase is not only agricultural and sideline products, but also the rise of house prices, stocks, gas and oil prices, which has driven the general price increase of other products; The price increase of agricultural means of production will inevitably lead to the price increase of agricultural and sideline products.
Fifth, the international market is related to the rising prices of agricultural and sideline products. At this point, the futures prices of major international agricultural products have risen sharply for many months in a row, driving up the prices of domestic agricultural and sideline products.
Despite this, experts believe that there are no commodities that are in short supply and overheated consumption in the current market, and the prices of most agricultural and sideline products have risen within a reasonable range.
Two. The view of financial crisis! Basically, next year will be more serious. I don't know much about leather clothes, but I have an acquaintance who is in the handbag business, mainly in Europe. Since August this year, business has been very slow, and more than half the employees in the factory have been laid off. But it's not that there is no loan at all, but it's much less than usual, and it can barely break even.
The financial crisis mainly devalued the currencies of these countries. Compared with us, it means that the RMB has appreciated, and doing business with us will lose a lot.
The suggestion now is to save money, control the production quantity and not expand reproduction in the short term. For some old customers, try to keep trading. Financial crisis, also known as financial storm, means that all or most financial indicators of a country or several countries and regions (such as short-term interest rates, monetary assets, securities, real estate, land (price), the number of commercial bankruptcies and the number of financial institution failures) are sharp, short-lived and super-cyclical.
Its characteristic is that people's expectations of the future economy are more pessimistic, the currency of the whole region has depreciated sharply, and the economic aggregate and scale have lost a lot, which has hit economic growth. It is often accompanied by a large number of business failures, rising unemployment rate, general economic depression in society, and sometimes even social unrest or national political turmoil.
Financial crisis can be divided into currency crisis, debt crisis and banking crisis. In recent years, the financial crisis has increasingly presented some mixed forms of crisis.
Before the American economic crisis, America seemed to be a prosperous scene. In fact, it is mainly driven by the false prosperity of the real estate market, and the real estate transactions in the United States are over-speculative. This phenomenon can be described by an example that we can easily understand:
It is said that we all speculate in stocks to make money, but it is not enough to invest all our money. We still want to borrow money to make money, so we mortgage our own stocks and continue to buy stocks, and some banks even give you financing without your mortgage.
This has accumulated a lot of risks.
One day, the crazy stock market fever showed signs of fading, and the stock also fell. Many people cut their meat and leave because they can't pay back their loans, and many people take mortgaged properties because they can't pay back their money. Many banks have to admit compensation when lenders can't repay their debts because they don't have enough collateral. Chain reaction, personal bankruptcy, bankruptcy of credit institutions, economic depression, inflation.
The American government wants to curb excessive investment, reduce the scale of credit, and control the pushed up prices, so it has adopted a policy of tightening monetary policy, including raising interest rates, raising bank deposit reserves, issuing bills to absorb money market funds, and so on.
In fact, American political and economic circles are all politicians. They really dare not compliment their ability to manage the national economy. They don't know the patients in their own country. The rapid and sustained policy of raising interest rates is actually the fuse of this crisis. This measure led to a large number of loans that could not be repaid, triggered a series of bad debts, and led to the domino collapse of many financial companies in the United States.
Stock value is wealth on paper, and it only refers to the transaction price, not the value of actual assets. His ups and downs lost the "money" of the participants in the transaction, but did not damage the assets in the listed company.
The money issued for the first time enters the company and becomes an asset. After that, there will be no asset exchange, unless it is a new rights issue and dividend.
In future transactions, all of them are virtual wealth. If the company's net assets per share are 1.5 yuan, the stock trading price in the market is 10 yuan, and the circulating shareholders enjoy 1.5 yuan assets at the price of 10 yuan. After the stock price fell, the lost money went into the hands of the penultimate holders of government taxes, exchange commissions and stocks. Because all three kinds of people are cashing in cash. People holding stocks will continue to face the test of rising or falling.
To sum up, the money went to the company, the government, the exchange and the "penultimate former shareholder". Among them, the company is one-off, the government and the exchange are pumping water repeatedly, and shareholders are playing a game between the old and the new. The world wealth is still 65,438+the company's 0.5 yuan assets per share.
Finally, whether the money is really gone. In fact, there is still money (cash), but everyone is afraid of the development of the crisis and has not taken it out. The market liquidity is insufficient, and the banking systems in various countries are short of funds. The state wants to supplement the liquidity of funds in the market with financial funds, so there is a phenomenon that the state continues to invest trillions in the market. When everyone thinks that the crisis has passed or is about to pass, the money in the market will increase again, because everyone dares to invest.
Because all financial institutions in the world will not just put money there, they will only put some loans, not all of them, and they can't even put them out if they want to. In addition, they need to "diversify their investments", so they always invest in each other among financial institutions in various countries. US Treasury bonds, corporate bonds, stocks and real estate are the investment targets of financial institutions in various countries. Once there is a crisis in the United States, all foreign investors will suffer, and it will sweep the world.
The bankruptcy of enterprises in China had already started before this, which was caused by the passive appreciation of RMB exchange rate.
With the appreciation of RMB, the export competitiveness of China's products is reduced, and then' the export of China enterprises is reduced, the benefits of enterprises are reduced, the living environment of enterprises is deteriorated, and bankruptcy and unemployment follow one after another'.
There's only one way. First of all, the government should resolutely and decisively stop the trend of RMB appreciation and protect the international competitiveness of China products. Secondly, we should increase the stimulation of domestic consumption, and use domestic consumption to alleviate the serious pressure brought by the reduction of foreign exports to enterprises, that is, to alleviate the pressure on people's lives.
Three. The impact on our country! The American subprime mortgage crisis swept the world and became the fuse of the global financial crisis. The experience and lessons are worth pondering.
First, the impact and enlightenment of the international financial crisis on China futures companies.
The financial crisis was first imported, which was caused by the strong dollar policy implemented by the US government to maintain the dollar status after the US subprime mortgage crisis, and then the prices of financial assets, including commodities, fell sharply. In today's highly developed financial industry, financial assets are combined with each other and quickly transmitted between financial departments. This financial risk happened just during the National Day holiday in China. Because the domestic market was closed, the price gap between the domestic and foreign markets was huge during the National Day, which led to a concentrated outbreak of market risks after the National Day. Summarizing the occurrence of this round of risks, I personally think that adjustments should be made in the following aspects:
1. With the margin monitoring center of China Securities Regulatory Commission as the main body and the participation of various exchanges, the systematic risk monitoring center of China futures market will be formed to adjust the basic margin level of the whole market in a timely manner.
2. Before the long holiday, all exchanges should uniformly raise the margin rate of futures trading to avoid the accumulation of price risks caused by price fluctuations in overseas markets during the long holiday.
3. Summarize the successful experience of Shanghai Futures Exchange and Dalian Commodity Exchange in this risk disposal scheme, and form the practice of strengthening and reducing systemic risks, but all risk disposal should be completed on the same day.
4. The futures market shall be closed in line with international standards, or an electronic exchange shall be opened to ensure that the market can still maintain certain liquidity during the long holiday.
5. Further revise and improve clear trading risk control rules to help resolve market risks and prevent them from being maliciously exploited by market manipulators. For example, the margin level charged by the exchange should match the trading rules, and it is suggested to change it to the sum of two daily limit boards. The margin level of futures companies is suggested to increase the number of three board points on the basis of the exchange; Give the exchange greater power to deal with risks, allow the second round of one-way unlimited daily limit or daily limit to take measures to reduce the second board and limit the opening and closing of new positions in a certain direction.
6. When systemic risks occur, the ideas and measures adopted by domestic exchanges should be as consistent as possible, so as to help investors reduce uncertainties and disputes on exchanges when dealing with risks.
7. It is suggested that the "debt-free system of the day" should be given a clearer annotation, so as to guide the implementation of intraday trading with clearer laws and regulations, improve the execution efficiency of futures companies to resolve market risks, and reduce potential disputes.
8. Further strengthen investor education, enhance investors' fund management ability, clarify the motives for entering the market, and formulate feasible plans for entering the market.
9. Actively cultivate and guide the formation of professional investment teams, advocate rational investment, and reduce irrational impulses;
10. in view of the occurrence of systemic risks, the exchange should have a mechanism to use risk funds at any time to prevent the possibility of a greater degree of systemic risks.
1 1. Negotiate with the CBRC to establish a citizen's personal credit information system, open the inquiry port and data submission interface to futures companies, and strengthen the evaluation of investors' personal credit.
One last question! I think it should be a macroeconomic problem. I think the biggest thing is inflation and currency appreciation, which is also in line with international standards. There are too many problems here, which may need to be solved one by one. I think the state will control them.
The answer ends here. If you need anything else, you can contact me directly and I will help you.