1. Carry forward inventory
For all storable goods, carry-over inventory is an important factor, and carry-over inventory is the quantity of remaining goods at the end of a sales year. The size of the carry-over inventory can show the shortage of supply. Insufficient supply will lead to price increase in the near or long term, while sufficient supply will lead to price decrease.
2. Production situation
High output means that supply increases and prices tend to fall. Reducing production means reducing supply and raising prices.
3. Economic development
The economic situation at home and abroad will affect the consumption power of residents, thus affecting commodity prices.
4. Import and export situation
Import and export will also affect the supply and demand of goods.
Imports increase, supply increases, and prices fall; The increase in exports reduced supply, which led to an increase in prices.
5. Supply status of other related commodities
The price changes of related commodities will lead to the substitution relationship between commodities.
6. The national policy on an industry and the change of natural climate will also have an important impact on the supply and demand of the commodity market, thus affecting the price of the futures market.
7. Factors of technological progress. Technological progress, such as simple transportation mode and improvement of production mode, will lead to lower costs and lower prices.
8. Financial market conditions
The increase of money supply and the decrease of money value will naturally lead to the increase of prices, while deflation will lead to the decrease of prices. The situation of financial market has a more important influence on the futures price of financial workers.
The above factors are the basic reasons that affect the market supply and demand, and therefore the basic factors that affect the price of contraband. In addition, there are some random factors, such as international and domestic political situations, wars and the movements of big players in the trading floor, which will affect traders' expectations and thus affect futures prices.