According to the survey and statistics of USGS (table 1-2- 1), the world nickel reserves are about 46.38 million tons. Cuba ranks first in nickel reserves, about180,000 tons, followed by Russia's 6.6 million tons, Canada's 6.2 million tons, New Caledonia's 4.5 million tons, Indonesia's 3.2 million tons and South Africa's 2.5 million tons.

Table 1-2- 1 world nickel reserve table (metal amount/10,000 tons)

Source: US Geological Survey Mineral Resources Program, 2000.

1999 (table 1-2- 1) statistics show that the world's basic nickel reserves are 654.38+400 million tons. Cuba ranks first, about 23 million tons, followed by Canada/KOOC-0/50,000 tons, New Caledonia/KOOC-0/50,000 tons, Indonesia/KOOC-0/30,000 tons, South Africa/KOOC-0/20,000 tons, and Australia and the Philippines are both/KOOC-0/. China is 7.9 million tons, accounting for about 6%.

According to the Mineral Resources Report of China (1997 ~ 1998), as of 1997, the accumulated proven nickel reserves in China are 873140,000 tons, and the retained reserves are 7,765,438+10,000 tons, in industrial reserve (A+B+C).

Table 1-2-2 Nickel Ore Reserves in China (Metal Amount/10,000 Tons)

Before the promulgation of 1992 General Principles for Geological Exploration of Solid Minerals and 1999 Classification of Solid Mineral Resources/Reserves (GB/T 17766- 1999), the long-term used reserve classification standards in China were quite different from the internationally recognized classification standards, and it was difficult to correspond. The proven reserves or reserves in China are roughly equivalent to the reserve base (basic reserves), and the reserves in industrial reserve or A+B+ (partial) C are roughly equivalent to the international reserves (economic reserves and mineral reserves). On this basis, China ranks eighth in terms of reserves, and China and Australia rank fifth with 3.7 million tons.

There are two types of nickel ores, copper-nickel sulfide ores and nickel oxide ores. The former mainly occurs in magmatic copper-nickel sulfide deposits, while the latter occurs in lateritic nickel deposits. It has been found that 66% of nickel reserves in the world are lateritic and 34% are magmatic copper-nickel sulfide, but the proportion of nickel sulfide is still large, accounting for about 60%. Nickel sulfide ore is the main producing area of nickel ore in China, and its reserves account for 86% of the national nickel reserves.

In addition to land resources, there are huge potential nickel resources in seabed manganese nodules, and the estimated nickel reserves are about 690 million tons. Analysis of typical manganese nodules in the Pacific Ocean shows that they contain 25% manganese, 65,438+0.0% nickel, 65,438+0.0% copper and 0.22% cobalt.

In addition, recovering nickel metal from nickel-containing waste is another important nickel resource. According to the statistics of the world research organization, the annual recovery of nickel is about 350,000 tons, accounting for 1/4 of the consumption. According to the Mineral Yearbook (1994 ~ 1998) issued by the US Geological Survey (USGS), from 1992 ~ 1998, the annual recovery of nickel metal in the United States was 54,000 ~ 69,000 tons, accounting for 32.4% of the consumption. Secondary nickel mainly comes from stainless steel, accounting for about 80%.

Second, the amount of nickel mining (mine output)

The mining amount of mine ore is also translated into mine output. Non-ferrous metal ores are generally expressed by the total metal content in the concentrate obtained after mineral processing.

At present, nickel mines in the world are mainly distributed in Russia, Canada, Cuba, Australia, New Caledonia and other 18 countries. According to the British World Statistical Yearbook of Metals (200 1), the total nickel mining in the world increased from 872,500 tons in 2000 to158,900 tons, with an average annual growth rate of 3.4% (Table 1-0 Russia is the first nickel producer in the world,/kloc.

According to the Report of Mineral Resources in China (1997 ~ 1998), the nickel mining amount in China is 44,800 tons, 43,800 tons and 46,600 tons respectively, and the mining amount has not changed much in recent three years. According to the World Statistical Yearbook of Metals (200 1), from 199 1 to 2000, the output of nickel ore in China increased from 30,400 tons to 51/0000 tons, with an average annual growth rate of 6.3% (table/.

Third, the output of refined nickel.

According to the World Statistical Yearbook of Metals (200 1), from 199 1 to 2000, the world refined nickel output increased from 8418,000 tons to1091. The countries with smelting capacity exceeding 654.38+10,000 tons include Russia, Japan, Canada and Australia, which are the largest producers of refined nickel at present.

Table 1-2-3 Nickel Mining Amount, Output and Consumption in China and the World (Metal Amount/10,000 Tons)

According to the Mineral Resources Report of China (1997 ~ 1998) and the World Statistical Yearbook of Metals (200 1), from 199 1 to 2000, the output of (refined) nickel in China was from. Gansu Jinchuan Nickel Industry Company is the largest nickel mine and smelter in China, and its nickel output accounts for 88% of the national total output.

Comparing the relationship between nickel output and mine nickel output, different countries, such as Russia, Canada, Australia and other countries, have large mining capacity and more refined nickel output; Japan, the United States, Germany and other countries have little nickel resources and little or no mining capacity, but they have great smelting capacity, and rely on imported nickel concentrate to smelt nickel. There are also some countries (regions), such as New Caledonia, Indonesia and the Philippines. Its mining volume is very large, and most of the fine ore obtained is used for export. Nickel mining and (refined) nickel production in China are basically coordinated, almost the same, and are increasing at the same time.

Fourth, the consumption of nickel.

According to the World Statistical Yearbook of Metals (200 1), the world nickel consumption increased from 798,500 tons to11300 tons in 2000, with an average annual growth rate of 4.0% (Table 65438+ The countries or regions with the largest nickel consumption are Japan and Japan. In 2000, Japan consumed 19 17000 tons of nickel (table 1-2-4).

China's nickel consumption is at the middle level in the world. From 199 1 to 2000, the consumption increased from 32,000 tons to 57,600 tons, with an average annual increase of 8.37% (table 1-2-3).

Compared with refined nickel production, the world nickel consumption is basically similar. However, the situation in different countries (regions) is very different. For example, China, Taiwan Province Province and South Korea lack nickel resources, and the output of refined nickel is extremely low, but the consumption of nickel is very large, and nickel is completely dependent on imports. The production and sales of nickel in China are basically balanced, and the annual import quantity is limited.

Verb (the abbreviation of verb) predicts the future market demand and resource guarantee degree.

Nickel is a non-ferrous metal closely related to the iron and steel industry and occupies an important position in modern industrial technology. Many of its direct or indirect uses are related to national defense, so nickel is a strategic control material and has an important economic position.

Although the consumption of nickel in the world fluctuated in the past 10 year, the general trend was increasing. In the past 10 year, the average annual growth rate was 4%, corresponding to the average annual growth rates of nickel mining and refined nickel production in the world of 3.4% and 3.0%. Considering the slowdown of world economic growth in recent years, it is predicted that the average annual growth rate of nickel demand will be 3.0% from 200/kloc-0 to 2020, so the nickel demand in 2020 will be 20 1534000 tons and 1825438+000000 tons.

Table 1-2-4 List of World Refined Nickel Production and Consumption (Metal Amount/10,000 Tons)

The consumption of nickel in China is increasing, with an average annual growth rate of 8.4% from 199 1 to 2000. Accordingly, the average annual growth rate of nickel concentrate (ore mining) is 6.3%, and the average annual growth rate of refined nickel output is 6.9%. In 2002 and 2003, the nickel output in China was 57,000 tons and 65,000 tons respectively, and the nickel sales were 90,000 tons and 1 16000 tons respectively. In two years, the output of nickel increased by 14% and the sales volume increased by 29%. Through the analysis of these data, the average annual growth rate of nickel demand from 200/kloc-0 to 2020 is set at 10%, and it is predicted that the nickel demand in 2013180,000 tons in 1998 and 34,600 tons in 2020.

Table 1-2-5 nickel demand forecast table (metal quantity/10,000 tons)

Compared with 1997 ~ 1996 ~ 2000, the static guarantee period of nickel ore is 77 years, which is 4.2 compared with the cumulative demand of 200 1 ~ 20 10. Compared with the cumulative demand of 200 1 to 20 10, the ratio is 8.7. It can be seen that the nickel resources in China can basically meet the demand in the next 10 year.

Compared with the world nickel reserve 1999 and the current year's output, the static guarantee period of nickel is 43 years, and compared with the cumulative demand of 200 1 to 20 10, the ratio is1.9. It can be seen that the world's demand for nickel resources can be guaranteed in the next 10 year.

Compared with the cumulative nickel demand from 200/kloc-0 to 2020, the industrial reserve of nickel in China is 1.2, and compared with the cumulative nickel demand from 200/kloc-0 to 2020, the value is 2.4. It can be seen that nickel resources can not fully meet the demand in the next 20 years.

According to China Mineral Resources Report (1997 ~ 1998), there are 20 nickel mining areas in China, with 3,027,200 tons of nickel reserves, accounting for 63% of the total reserves. There are 22 mines available, 13 1.65438+. It can be seen that the reserve nickel mine producing areas in China, especially those with medium or above scale, are still in short supply. The report predicts that by 20 10, the output of nickel ore will not meet the demand.

Table 1-2-6 Utilization of Nickel, Copper and Platinum Group Elements in China

As mentioned earlier, 1992 ~ 1998, the secondary recycling of nickel metal in the United States accounted for 32% ~ 36% of nickel consumption, while the recycling of waste nickel in China was only 20 ~ 30,000 tons per year (China Nonferrous Metals Industry Yearbook), accounting for 4% ~ 6% of annual nickel sales. In the above analysis of nickel resource guarantee in the future, the share of recycled nickel is not considered. If we consider recycling the share of nickel in the future demand, the resource guarantee will be better.