On February 25th, the latest data of the Yangtze River spot and Guangdong spot showed that the copper prices of the two places both exceeded 70,000 yuan/ton, which were 70,260 yuan/ton respectively, up by 20 10 yuan/ton; 70 170 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan/ton.
In terms of futures price, as of noon on February 25th, the copper price of London Metal Exchange (LME) broke through the nearly 9.5-year high since September 20th11to 9498 USD/ton, rising by 248 USD/ton. On Monday (February 22nd), the price just exceeded $9,000/ton.
The data shows that copper prices have increased by more than 50% in the past year. After a brief consolidation at the beginning of February this year, the post-holiday price once again started a new round of rise.
With the copper market "inventory consumption faster than expected", copper prices have soared recently. As early as last June, Standard & Poor's Global warned that the industry was in trouble and there were supply risks. It believes that from 1990 to 2009, 224 copper mines were discovered in the world. However, in the past 10 years, only 16 copper deposits have been discovered. Although there are still a large number of undeveloped copper mines in the world, most of them are small-scale or low-grade mining areas, and there are few high-quality assets available for development.
According to the estimation of Goldman Sachs, the copper market is facing the biggest supply shortage in 10 years, because the output can't keep up with the demand of China and other countries in the world. To this end, Goldman Sachs has raised the copper target price after 12 months to $0/0500 per ton, which will also be the highest level in history. Goldman Sachs specifically pointed out that after the Lunar New Year, China investors bought a lot of copper, which led to a substantial increase in demand, but the supply growth in the copper market was limited.
Another analysis shows that the root cause of this round of copper price increase comes from downstream demand, supply shortage and fiscal policy stimulus of overseas countries. The staff of Jiangxi Copper Securities Department analyzed that from the demand side, the downstream demand for new energy and new infrastructure is strong, including breakthroughs in vaccine research and development, which will accelerate the release of demand for copper products and form price support. In addition, the tight supply of mines and the stimulus of American fiscal policy have led to the current high copper price.
Relevant persons of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. also revealed that from the company's point of view, the back-end and downstream consumption situation is optimistic, especially the current export situation and China's production capacity supply. Refrigerators, color TVs, mechanical and electrical products and other products are exported well. Benefiting from the strong demand of downstream orders, the copper processing business kept on production during the Spring Festival this year.
The surge in copper prices is driving the overall strength of commodities. On the one hand, the whole non-ferrous plate rose strongly, on the other hand, the steel, coal, chemical and other plates continued to strengthen.
Today (Thursday) morning, the non-ferrous metal plate rebounded strongly. As of press time, Hongchuang Holdings and Shenhuo shares had daily limit, followed by China Aluminum, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Jiangxi Copper.
According to the research report released by CICC on February 24th, the oil price has recently returned to $60/barrel. The core of this round of oil price rise lies in the expectation of demand-side recovery, which has a positive correlation with the rise of copper price. Macroscopically, copper prices are expected to continue to rise in the first half of the year.
The soaring copper price has also been transmitted to the automobile industry. Relevant data show that the order delivery time of many enterprises has tripled silently, and the demand for PCB orders of new energy vehicles and other related products has increased greatly. The delivery time of orders has been extended from the original half month to one and a half months, and some orders have been placed in the second quarter.
Copper prices skyrocketed, and copper scrap was crazy. Data from Fu Ying Baichuan show that the price of copper scrap has risen rapidly since February 3rd. Taking red copper as an example, the price rose from 50,700 yuan per ton on February 3 to 58,600 yuan per ton on February 24, with an increase of 15.58%. Especially since February 17, copper prices have entered an accelerated rising period, rising by 10.76% in just seven days.
"I have never made so much money in a day!" Lao Li, who runs a large scrap copper purchasing station in Daxing District, Beijing, said that since the Spring Festival, copper prices have soared and the price of scrap copper has risen. Several tons of copper scrap that could not be sold before the Spring Festival were sold out two days ago. "I made 20 times the profit, and in one day I made the money that I could only make in the last quarter."
Domestic copper scrap consumption accounts for about a quarter of copper consumption, so the price of copper scrap is highly linked to the downstream copper price. After all 12 Shanghai copper futures contracts were listed on February 22nd, the trading enthusiasm of the copper market remained high. According to the data released by Zhuo Chuang Information, the current domestic spot copper trading range is 67,420 yuan to 67,480 yuan per ton.
It is worth mentioning that the drastic change of copper price may lead to a series of chaos in the cable industry. Some analysts pointed out that the short-term surge in copper prices will make unsigned customers start to wait and see, and signed customers may default. At the same time, thanks to the recovery of the domestic economy and the improvement of the export market, the prosperity of the cable industry is currently in a good historical period. The continuous shortage of raw materials may mean that the price increase of copper will not stop in a short time, and the price increase may be more fierce at that time.
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