From 2022 1 month, the price of live pigs began to fluctuate again. Since the enterprises started construction on February 7th, the hog market has hit record lows, just like when 6 yuan was broken in Northeast and Northwest China.
The depressed price during this period is close to the price trend at the end of September and the beginning of October, 200211,but the difference is that this is the off-season after the Spring Festival, so according to my personal opinion, the current bottom line price has not yet been produced.
Due to the influence of the Spring Festival two weeks ago, the overall expenditure at this time is very limited, and the invasion of COVID-19 epidemic mutant in the fourth quarter of 2002/KLOC-0, both the overall economic situation and the private per capita income level, the tourism and catering industries are in a state of rest. From the fourth quarter of 20021,the overall burnout situation has not improved significantly in the near future.
But the rise in the price of live pigs needs to be stimulated. At this moment, there is neither strong expenditure nor more favorable policy support. At the same time, the number of fertile sows is still high. According to the new introduction of the deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the number of fertile sows in China should be stable at 4 1 10,000, but by June 5438+0, 2026, the number of fertile sows in China had recovered to 40,000.
By the end of 2022 1, there will be 42.9 million sows in China.
It is worth noting that after August 20 18, a non-epidemic situation broke out in China, resulting in heavy losses in pig production capacity. It was not until the end of February 2020 that it gradually recovered to 4 16 10000. However, from August 20021year, the number of fertile sows continued to increase, and the price of live pigs continued to rise. 202 1, 1 -202 1, 12 rebounded at the end of the session, but failed to rebound to the historical high. Because the productivity of pigs recovers very quickly, and the total number of sows that can breed is always above 4 1 10,000. Of course, the pig market began to lose money in June, 20021year (note: at that time, the number of fertile sows in China had reached 45.64 million, which was the highest value after the outbreak of non-plague in August, 20 18), so it was also from that time that the high profits in the past two years gradually fell into a period of low pig prices, resulting in serious losses.
According to the monitoring data of Sou Pig Network, the current pig-grain ratio is lower than 5: 1, which has entered the second warning range of excessive decline.
At this time, the National Development and Reform Commission will start pork storage with relevant departments.
The goal of purchasing and storing in the near future is to reassure farmers. When the prices of live pigs and pork fell sharply on a large scale, the purchasing and storage mode was started one after another to achieve the effect of effectively supporting the market.
How do head enterprises trade?
A number of listed companies specializing in pig breeding business show in the announcement that the company will continue to promote the consolidation of pig breeding business foundation, improve the biosafety prevention and control system, continuously improve the quality of sows on hand, improve the listing rate of pigs, and reduce the cost of pig breeding.
Recently, Mu Yuan proposed in the Restricted Stock Incentive Plan for 2022 (Draft) that the growth rate of live pig sales in 2022 should be no less than 25%.
According to the calculation, the goal of grazing source in 2022 will not be less than 50,238,750.
In addition, in February of 15, Mu Yuan announced that the price of convertible bonds in Mu Yuan was 47.95438+0 yuan/share, and the conversion time was from February 2, 2022 to August 5, 2027.
In addition to Muyuan, Wen's shares are also displayed on the investor interaction platform. The target of selling in 2022 is1.800-20 million, which is 30%-50% higher than that of 1.326 and 5438+0.740 sold in 2026+0.
Tianbang shares also performed in investors' questions. The slaughter in early 2022 is expected to be 6 million, which is 202 1 increase 1.8 million.
Tao Yishan of Tang Renshen put forward the 5 yuan pig price round at the peak of the pig cycle, and later announced that it would increase production to100000 pigs in the future.
It is planned to slaughter 2 million pigs in 2022, which is 457,700 more than that in 20021year.
Guo, secretary of Tiankang Biological Board of Directors, said that at the end of 2002120,000 Tiankang biological sows were on hand120,000.
In 2022, the company's pig breeding business was initially determined to be 2.2 million heads.
How to deal with the soaring price of raw materials?
Recently, under the background of meteorological hype in South America, the price of soybean meal soared, rising by nearly 400 yuan/ton in a short week from February 8 to 15, and the pressure on feed and aquaculture funds suddenly increased.
A number of institutions have lowered their soybean production forecasts in South America again, while the demand for soybeans in the United States is relatively strong, which has led to a sharp rise in oil prices in the United States.
On February 7, Dalian soybean meal futures price also rose sharply. Soybean meal futures main contract 2205 daily limit of 7.99%, reaching an eight-month high of 3636.0 yuan/ton.
Of course, this has also attracted great attention from the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. For details, please click on the following text to patrol to reduce the import of soybeans and develop basic agriculture and rural areas by relying on solid aquaculture. The person in charge of relevant departments talked about the reduction of soybean meal for feed.
Faced with the sharp drop in the price of live pigs and the successive increase in the price of feed raw materials, the industry once again suffered serious deep losses during the same period when the cost of feeding and epidemic prevention continued to increase.
Of course, in pig breeding, raising funds and epidemic prevention and control are the most important and the largest investment places. High funds and low pig prices catch up with the off-season after the Spring Festival. Striving for funds, stabilizing mentality, obtaining channels and ensuring operation are the key points to control the market. .......