There are many factors that affect the fluctuation of grain prices, such as market factors, capital speculation, state regulation, agricultural production costs and so on. It can be said that the fluctuation of food prices is a comprehensive manifestation of these factors.
The production cost of agricultural resources is one of the factors, but it is not the decisive factor, so it is not necessarily related, but it must be related.
① Market factors
This is the most important factor affecting the fluctuation of food prices. Grain is still a commodity in essence, so it has the most basic attributes of commodities, and its price fluctuation is also greatly affected by the relationship between supply and demand.
(1) domestic market supply
Take corn as an example. From last year to this year, the price of corn rose sharply compared with previous years. The core is that we really lack corn.
According to the statistical data, in 2020-202 1, the corn deficit was about 28 million tons, and scarcity is the most precious thing. As a result, the prices of corn and soybeans have risen again. Everyone knows this truth, and I don't need to say anything more.
But let's look at rice and wheat. In fact, the price increase is not large, and even the price of rice has not risen. Why?
Because the supply exceeds the demand, the rations in China are sufficient, but there is indeed a huge gap between feed grain and industrial grain.
(2) international market supply
International food prices have also become an important factor affecting domestic food prices. In 2020, the World Food and Agriculture Organization warned many times that the world was in a state of food shortage.
Coupled with the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, many food exporting countries began to restrict their own food exports, which also contributed to the rise of domestic food prices.
Today, with the rapid development of global economy, the impact of international futures market food prices on domestic food prices is becoming more and more obvious.
② Capital speculation
In fact, the rise in the prices of non-staple foods such as corn and soybeans this year is also closely related to the speculation of capital. One is the speculation of domestic idle funds, and the other is the speculation of international grain giants.
Whenever there is a big fluctuation in grain, more idle funds will enter the market. After all, everyone wants to fish in troubled waters and get a piece of the action.
In addition, we don't know, in fact, international grain resources are only in the hands of a few giants, among which ADM, Bunge, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus are the four most famous grain merchants. They can say that the rise and fall of global food prices has reached the level of absolute monarch.
③ National regulation and control
Grain belongs to strategic reserve resources, and food is the most important thing for the people. So it can't be decided by the market and capital, which is why although imported food is cheaper than domestic food.
However, the reason why the country still implements the policy of "default purchase" is to ensure that our food security is not threatened.
Of course, from the fact, we did ensure the safety of rations, although the quantity of feed and industrial grain is still controlled by people. But there is no way to do this. You can't have your cake and eat it. Take the lesser of the two evils.
(4) agricultural and other production inputs.
For the impact of grain fluctuation, I put the importance of agricultural production input at the end.
Needless to say, there are too many reasons. Let's take the facts as an example. How much has the price of agricultural products increased in recent decades? How much has the price of grain gone up?
It can be seen from this that the impact on food prices is very small, but you can't say that there is no impact, or how can you say that food prices are recovering!