First, look at gold investment opportunities from the relationship between commodity prices: the value is still underestimated.
According to the relationship between gold price and oil price in the past 20 years, gold price is still undervalued.
"The average price ratio of gold to crude oil in the past 20 years is about 16, reflecting that it takes 16 barrels of crude oil to buy an ounce of gold. At present, the spot price of gold is $550, while the spot price of crude oil is $65, so the ratio is only 8. Therefore, gold needs to rise sharply, or oil prices need to fall back, so that the ratio can return to the long-term average. "
draw
Second, the demand pattern of the world gold market has changed from consumption demand-oriented to investment demand-oriented
At present, the demand pattern of the world gold market has changed from jewelry demand-oriented to investment demand-oriented, and the rising investment demand has become the leading factor to promote the violent fluctuation of international gold prices; Speculative capital is heavily involved.
At present, in the international capital market, trillions of dollars of speculative capital are constantly seeking investment opportunities. They mainly make waves in the commodity market through the futures market.
Private investment in gold is also in the ascendant in China and India. International economic and political uncertainty risks also promote people's investment in gold.
Jim, a famous American investment expert? Jim rogers believes that in the next 15 to 20 years, the best investment target in the world will be commodities.
In recent years, attracted by high returns, various funds have been pouring into the commodity futures market this year. In the past few years, pension funds and mutual funds are increasing their investment in commodity markets, attracted by the strong returns in energy and metal commodity markets.
Three, China, Japan and other countries to adjust the structure of foreign exchange reserves will inevitably increase the demand for gold.
As the foreign exchange reserves of China and Japan used to be dominated by US dollars, the structure of foreign exchange reserves is extremely unreasonable. In the long run, a substantial increase in gold reserves is inevitable. According to the statistics of the International Monetary Fund, as of June 2005, China has 600 tons of gold reserves, accounting for about 1.4% of foreign exchange reserves. In this regard, Tamia Liu, secretary-general of the Expert Committee on Qualification Evaluation of Gold Investment Analysts, said: "Not low, but much lower!"
According to the information provided by the World Gold Council, countries and organizations with gold reserves above 1 000 tons are: the United States, Germany, France, Italy, Switzerland and the International Monetary Fund. Among them, the United States' gold reserves account for 60.4% of its total national strategic reserves.
"At present, there is no strict standard for the proportion of gold reserves in foreign exchange reserves, which needs to be decided according to the different periods of development and change of the international financial situation." Tamia Liu analyzed that under the current specific international economic environment, the risk of low gold reserves in China may become more prominent. "As the prices of oil and major resources continue to rise, the international economy is facing global imported inflationary pressure. In this case, a single country cannot fundamentally solve the problem, and the final result may be global stagflation, which will lead to the chaos of the global economic order and financial order and affect the international monetary system. Therefore, holding the currency of any country will face risks, and holding gold is the safest choice. "
No matter how strong the major currencies such as the US dollar, the euro and the Japanese yen are, they are only a kind of credit currency, and their issuance is reflected in the form that the holder has creditor's rights to the issuing country. As a real currency, gold is completely risk-free. The foreign exchange reserve of 7 10973 billion US dollars is only 600 tons of gold, which is not enough for a developing country like us. The scale ratio of 65,438+0.16% is too small, and it must reach at least 65,438+00% to better resist financial risks.
At present, China is the third largest gold consumer, and the growth of private gold holdings ranks fourth in the world. We can clearly see that the United States, as a world power, has more than 70% (more than 8,000 tons) of foreign exchange reserves, and has been selling gold in some European countries and increasing its gold reserves for so many years.
It is necessary to convert US dollar assets in foreign exchange reserves into gold reserves as soon as possible, and increase the gold reserves from the current 600 tons to 4,000 tons to 5,000 tons, which is in line with China's status. There is an overall shortage of gold reserves in China, which is very urgent. China is different from other countries such as India. Although India's official reserves are not high, its private reserves are high. It is also different from the United States and European countries. European countries (such as Germany) have high gold reserves. If China's private gold reserves are high, there is no need for so many official gold reserves. However, our country's private reserves are very low, and the official reserves are even lower, which should be highly valued by the government.
Because in the next 10 year, China's gold market will be in line with international standards, and RMB capital projects will eventually be freely convertible. In order to ensure the smooth connection between China's gold market and the international gold market, and maintain the strong currency position of RMB in the world, a reasonable gold reserve scale is necessary.
Fourth, gold has become a bargaining chip for international capital.
In the international financial market and futures, there seems to be such a "law": all commodities with the concept of China demand must rise sharply! In the second half of 2003, the agricultural products and copper futures markets represented by soybeans and the high oil price in 2005 repeatedly showed this "law" to the world. China's most abundant rare earth resources have been abused repeatedly. This not only shows that international capital giants have fooled emerging market economies, but also is a deep-seated strategic game between countries. The depreciation of the dollar and the rise in commodity prices seem to be a great weapon for international capital giants to force the appreciation of the renminbi.
In short, the price of gold is in the early stage of cyclical rise, and investment speculation is just the right time.