On June 4th, 10, a large number of websites specially planned the first issue of "Looking at the World"-"The Impact of the American Financial Crisis on China's Economy" to discuss the above issues with industry experts.
First of all, Yucheng Hou, deputy director of university of international business and economics Financial Technology Research Center, said that the financial turmoil in the United States eventually turned into a crisis, which was caused by the price bubble, which was mainly reflected in the real estate market. The United States shifted the problem to financial derivatives and confused the concept. The fundamental problem is the excessive expansion of the real estate bubble, which eventually leads to uncontrollable situation.
In recent years, the progress of science and technology and the improvement of productivity in the United States have led to rapid economic development, but at a certain stage, its economic development is supported by rising prices. It is precisely because of this subtle difference that once there is a problem in a certain field, the whole price system will collapse.
Dr Shi Huihong, a researcher at capital university of economics and business Financial Policy Research Center, believes that the root of the financial crisis lies in the American financial mechanism, that is, credit derivatives. The principal and interest of ordinary bonds can be expected. After the derivative, the principal has changed and the interest rate has also changed. If the interest rate can be linked to the exchange rate, then the interest rate can be linked to many factors, which will further expand the risk. Especially in futures, the interest rate is high, and the amount of losses becomes astronomical, which makes the whole economy divided into two poles, one is profiteering, the other is huge loss, and the economic system cannot be balanced.
Faced with this situation, governments all over the world are trying their best to save the financial crisis, but what is the effect? Yucheng Hou said that all the capital injections in Europe and America, including the establishment of various funds, are mainly aimed at stabilizing the market. The overall purpose is to unite central banks to give confidence to the market, stabilize the financial system, and let the real economy operate normally.
Talking about the impact of the current financial crisis on China's economy, Yucheng Hou believes that its main negative impact lies in China's foreign trade export and financial sector, but from another perspective, this crisis may be a huge opportunity-forcing China's export structure to upgrade, which requires the macro-decision-making level to provide a buffer opportunity for small and medium-sized enterprises and large exporters in China.
Lian Jie, investment manager of investment management headquarters of china galaxy Investment Management Co., Ltd., said that in the current environment of insufficient independent motivation in China, the living environment is getting worse and worse, and stronger enterprises can only be born in the process of industrial upgrading and industrial combination. On the other hand, industries supported by rigid domestic demand are very worthy of attention. Our current domestic demand growth is not fast, but this growth is basically rigid and will not suddenly become negative growth, such as agriculture and fast-moving consumer goods, which have good investment opportunities.
Yucheng Hou believes that under the current economic situation, we can pay more attention to domestic demand on the basis of stabilizing or minimizing the impact of exports. From the recent Party Congress, we can find that starting domestic demand or creating domestic demand may become the main economic policy direction of China in the next stage. For agriculture and even the whole field related to agriculture, it may be a point for China to strengthen the development of domestic demand in the future. In the next step, China is likely to give appropriate support and promotion to the science and technology industry. On the one hand, it will develop the foundation of science and technology, on the other hand, it will try to create new consumption hotspots from this field.
What kind of industry can develop well in this crisis, and how can enterprises get away with it in this crisis? Experts put forward suggestions for SMEs:
Yucheng Hou: Small and medium-sized enterprises should make great changes and improvements in their future development ideas. This year and even in the future, relying on the simple intensive and low-cost production methods in the past will gradually encounter development bottlenecks, which requires two preparations for the future development of small and medium-sized enterprises in China. On the one hand, the technology of small and medium-sized enterprises needs to be improved and prepared first. Second, the small and medium-sized enterprises in China, especially the export-oriented ones, need to be equipped with some talents who are familiar with the economic and financial fields in the future.
Lian Jie: When it comes to the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, there is one point to be raised, and that is the financial environment in China. In the case that the overall financial environment in China lags behind the development of the real economy, there are opportunities in the financial industry. In the future, there will be many kinds of small enterprises in the financial industry, which may live well. When choosing an enterprise, an investment company will consider several factors in actual operation. The first is the industry space. Even if it ranks first, there is only one million room for growth in the industry, which is not considered; The second is industry barrier, which is a factor restricting competition. It is very valuable to design barriers so that the latter can't catch up or even enter this field easily.
For the transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises, Shi Huihong believes that on the one hand, we can rely on our own strength, on the other hand, we also need to rely on external forces, and some governments should take responsibility for external forces. Whether abroad or at home, the development of small and medium-sized enterprises often needs corresponding government policies, otherwise they will be very passive in the competition with large enterprises. Yucheng Hou believes that small and medium-sized enterprises must proceed from their own development, and cannot pin their development hopes entirely on the country. Whether it is domestic or international, it is normal for enterprises to survive the fittest.
Finally, when talking about the breakthrough of China enterprises in this financial crisis, three experts said: Under the current situation, SMEs should actively expand other markets outside the United States, including African markets, European markets and even Asian markets. Through crisis training, improve the competitiveness with international enterprises and the ability to explore the international market, and constantly improve their own strength. The pace of progress can't stop, and the opportunity will eventually come.