Today, the main contract price of corn 2205 "opened lower and went lower" and continued to fall. Bian Xiao believes that the reason is roughly the same as yesterday, which is due to technical factors, weak demand and increased supply.
First of all, let's look at it from a technical perspective. On the daily chart, the main contract price of corn 2205 fell to the 20-day moving average yesterday, and the 5-day moving average also fell below the 10 moving average, forming a "dead fork", which created conditions for the main contract price of corn 2205 to fall again.
In addition, the KDJ indicator has a three-line hook down, which is also a short arrangement, and the MACD indicator has a "dead fork". These are the reasons why the main contract price of corn 2205 "continues to fall" today.
In technical theory, there are many same "signals" of rising or falling in the same period, which is called "resonance" of technical indicators, which will greatly increase the probability of bullish or bearish.
On the daily chart, there were several bearish technical indicators yesterday. Therefore, the main contract price of corn 2205 today is in line with market expectations.
Secondly, from the demand point of view, the commodity prices related to corn are falling, so that the demand for corn will not "increase" in the short term, thus further reducing the main contract price of corn 2205.
According to the market chart, the main contract price of starch 2203 has recently "fallen for three consecutive days". From February 20, 65438 to February 22, 65438, the main contract price of starch 2203 fell 109 yuan/ton in three trading days, a decrease of 3.49%.
The recent continuous decline in the main contract price of starch 2203 is an important reason for the sluggish demand for corn. Therefore, today, the main contract price of corn 2205 "opened lower and went lower", further falling.
In addition, today, the price of the main pig contract 2203 has once again returned to the downward trend in recent days. From the market chart, from 65438+February 14 to 65438+February 20, the main contract price of Pig 2203 has fluctuated and dropped for five trading days. Yesterday, it "stopped falling and rebounded", but today it has returned to the downward trajectory.
Finally, from the perspective of supply, the recent weak trend of the US dollar index has made the expectation of the decline in the cost of domestic imported corn "warm up" again, thus forcing the main contract price of corn 2205 to fall.
According to the market chart, the offshore RMB exchange rate has fluctuated recently. From 65438+ on February 20 to 16: 04 on February 22, the offshore RMB exchange rate rose by 108 points in three trading days, returning to below 6.3800 and reporting at 6.3768.
Recently, the offshore RMB exchange rate has risen slightly, which will reduce the cost of domestic corn imports, thus increasing the domestic corn supply and forcing the main contract price of corn 2205 to fall.
Therefore, Bian Xiao feels that today's main corn contract 2205 "opens lower and goes lower" and continues to fall. At the close, the price per ton of corn dropped by 2 1 yuan, and also fell below 2,700 yuan/ton, mainly due to the comprehensive effect of these factors. What do you think of this? Is this consistent with Bian Xiao's view?