At present, China's refined oil products are indeed linked to international crude oil, mainly according to the futures price changes in some major crude oil markets such as Brent. The adjustment period of refined oil is 10 working days. During the 10 working day, we will observe the performance of several major futures markets, and then get a price by weighted average. When the average price changes obviously compared with the previous cycle, and the corresponding adjustment range of domestic refined oil reaches more than one ton of 50 yuan, a new round of refined oil adjustment window will be opened, otherwise it will be accumulated to the next round for adjustment. Under this adjustment mechanism, the adjustment of refined oil products depends not on the daily performance of international oil prices, but on the comprehensive performance of 10 days. For example, the average price of international crude oil is about 1 18 USD, while the average price of international crude oil in this period is about 1 18 USD, corresponding to a crude oil change rate of about 6.8%, so the adjustment range of domestic gasoline is about one ton of 390 yuan.
This average price is affected by 65,438+00 working days. If the international crude oil rises relatively high on one of the 10 observation days, even if the crude oil continues to fall on other observation days, the average price of crude oil may continue to rise even if the decline is not large. Let's give a simple example. If the price of crude oil is 1 10 USD at the beginning, the crude oil will increase by 6% (116.6 USD) on the first day, and the crude oil will continue to increase by 5.5%( 123 USD) on the second day. From the third day to the sixth day, the average daily decline was 0.6%, and the corresponding crude oil prices were 122.26 USD,1210.53 USD, 120.8 USD and 120 USD respectively. From day 7 to day 10, the average daily decrease was 1%, and the corresponding crude oil prices were 1 18.87 USD, 1 17.68 USD and 165438 USD respectively. During this observation period, the average price of crude oil observed for 10 times reached 1 19.25 USD, which was 8.4% higher than the original 1 10 USD.
It is equivalent to that during this round of crude oil observation period, although it only rose for two days, because the increase was relatively large, the decline in the other eight days was not enough to offset the impact of the increase, so the overall oil price still belonged to a relatively high increase. Because of this, although people usually think that oil prices are falling, as long as there is a sharp rise in oil prices for a few days, this decline will not work at all, and oil prices as a whole will continue to rise. As for whether this oil price adjustment mechanism is reasonable, I won't explain it too much here, because the relevant departments have never published the specific details and adjustment formula of the crude oil adjustment mechanism, so they don't know the specific adjustment method, and no one can accurately estimate the data of oil price adjustment.
This estimate is also the reason why the oil price adjustment is controversial. In fact, I believe that everyone does not exclude the linkage between oil prices and international crude oil. After all, at present, China's dependence on crude oil imports has reached more than 70%, and most of the refined oil we use may be imported from abroad. When the import cost of crude oil rises, the rise of refined oil is understandable. But how to raise the oil price and what is the basis for the adjustment? What is the formula for adjustment? We still hope that the relevant departments can clearly announce it. As long as everyone spends clearly, I believe everyone has no dispute. For example, at present, the cost of international crude oil in China refined oil is only about 40%. It stands to reason that even if the international crude oil price rises, the adjustment range of domestic refined oil products should not be synchronized with the increase of international crude oil in the context of no obvious increase in other costs. However, judging from the actual situation of China's refined oil adjustment, the range of domestic refined oil adjustment is basically the same as that of international crude oil adjustment, which is a bit difficult to understand.