Example 1:
Enterprise A, an iron and steel production enterprise, received a sheet order contract of 1000 tons three months later this month. The production of this order requires 1600 tons of iron ore and 500 tons of coke. Since the production date is arranged two weeks before delivery, it is necessary to obtain the corresponding raw fuel at the time point two months later. In addition, the enterprise also has raw fuel stocks: iron ore 1000 tons and coke 100 tons. Analysis: Enterprise A needs to purchase 1600 tons of iron ore and 500 tons of coke within two months. However, because there are 1000 tons of iron ore and1000 tons of coke in the inventory, the real "unsatisfied demand related to commodities" is that it takes two months to buy 600 tons of iron ore and 400 tons of coke.
Example 2:
Enterprise B, a petrochemical trader, bought a batch of 65,438+0,500 tons of fixed-price PP from suppliers this week, which will arrive next week. Two downstream customers have already booked sales, and their prices have been determined through fixed-price contracts, one for 200 tons and the other for 500 tons. Analysis: Enterprise B purchases goods for sale, so "unsatisfied demand related to goods" means that it needs to sell 800 tons of pp and PP within 2~3 months.
Example 3:
Enterprise C is a large group that needs to buy and sell oil abroad and participate in trade as raw materials for production. The demand for oil procurement this month is: 65438+ 10,000 barrels. At present, a purchase contract of 50,000 barrels has been signed with oil suppliers. Among them, 654.38+00,000 barrels are purchased at a forward fixed price, and 40,000 barrels are "reserve price" contracts, that is, the time price agreed by both parties is selected by enterprise C (that is, the buyer) according to the latest futures contract price five working days before future delivery, and each barrel is +3 USD. Analysis: Enterprise C needs to purchase and has signed some contracts, so "unmet demand related to commodities" means that it needs to purchase 90,000 barrels of crude oil within this month. (It's not 50,000 barrels here because the basic price of 40,000 barrels has not been met from the perspective of commodity price risk, because its price has not yet been determined).
Through the above three examples, we can realize that when analyzing the risk exposure of commodity prices, "unmet demand related to commodities" has four basic attributes:
May be procurement or sales (multiple/short) exposure, that is, direction;
It must be about a specific commodity, that is, the variety;
It has a certain time limit, that is, time;
It will have a specific quantity, that is, quantity.