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How many people will be in the middle class in China in 2030?
On the afternoon of May 25th, 20 14, an international seminar on "Global Trends 2030" co-sponsored by the Foreign Affairs University and the Institute for Security Studies of the European Union was held in Beijing, and a research report on "Global Trends 2030-Citizens in an Connected Polycentric World" was released. The report does not describe an intuitive world in 2030, but describes three major development trends that may shape the world in 2030 in today's society, and policy makers can adjust their policies according to these trends. If we can grasp these trends and deal with them effectively, we can influence the world situation in 2030.

The report pointed out that the biggest trend in the world is personal empowerment, and the global middle class will rise strongly. By 2030, 80% to 85% of China people will become middle class. At the same time, the demands of the middle class are getting higher and higher, and no government in any country can meet them, thus creating a gap in expectations. In addition, the middle class in developed countries in Europe and America is worried that the rise of the middle class in China and Brazil will affect its dominant position, which may lead to nationalism and populism that the middle class demands political participation.

The standards of the middle class are endless.

According to the Survey Report on the Lifestyle and Consumption Patterns of Middle Class Groups compiled by a survey company, there are ten criteria for distinguishing middle class groups in China, so long as they meet any of the following criteria, they can be identified as middle class groups.

Domestic survey company middle-class standard report: family financial assets are more than 500 thousand

1, the total level of personal or family financial assets is more than RMB 500,000;

2. The individual's overall annual income is more than 200,000;

3. Own a private car worth more than 200,000 yuan;

4. Have a golf club membership card;

5. It has the scale of the enterprise (the registered capital of the enterprise business license is more than1million) or the number of employees is more than 15;

6. Persons who serve as directors, chairmen, supervisors, directors, deputy general managers, general managers or presidents in listed companies, well-known brand enterprises in China, well-known local brand enterprises, top 500 enterprises in China, representative offices of multinational companies, foreign-funded enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises;

7. Being a leading member of the Federation of Industry and Commerce at or above the prefecture level, the Young Entrepreneurs Association or other similar organizations;

8. Be a student of EMBA (executive master of business administration) class;

9. Private service personnel (private doctors, lawyers and health nurses);

10, doctoral supervisor and academic leader of famous universities or research institutions. Famous freelancers or professionals with a successful history.

Six standards of the middle class in the eyes of Americans: having a house and a car for vacation

1, whether you have your own house or not, house slaves are not counted.

Whether you have a car or not, luxury cars are the first choice.

3. Can children receive a good college education?

4. Is there any retirement protection to keep 80% of income at work?

5, whether there is medical insurance, do a good job of serious illness and disaster protection.

6. Do you have holidays at home, at least two weeks paid holidays every year?

The middle class standard in the eyes of netizens in China: the annual income is more than 200,000 yuan.

1, with an annual income of more than 200,000.

2. Holding listed stocks or options, at least hopefully in the near future.

3. Have a holiday villa or villa and a car that looks good, even if you bought it with someone.

4, there is a rich nightlife, usually business negotiations or concerts.

5. Have a foreign identity or have been in a foreign country for at least three years.

6. I know all kinds of etiquette, and my style is American, but I worship Europe at heart.

7. Learn about the latest operas and ballets.

8. The dialogue is often mixed with foreign words, and the audience can't understand it and then explain it in Chinese.

9. Dress casually, but not casually, but deliberately casually.

Netizens hotly discuss: the proportion of high school output is "frothy"

Netizen Tomi English _Joy: What do I think is the middle class? As far as the present situation is concerned, there is a house but no apartment. There are about 500 thousand cars. There are two or three children and more than 5 million in the bank. The whole family is well educated and has universal values. The wife can stay at home full time, and the husband's income can support the whole family. It reaches between 50,000 and 200,000 per month. I don't think there is a middle class in China.

Netizen yihong3 18: since the middle class can say the word "middle", it shows that its social status and social resources should be at the middle level of society. It is really difficult to define the middle class in China, mainly because the income gap in the whole country is too large. Personally, I think it can reach 10~20 times of the local minimum living standard, and owning my own property should be almost the same.

User 1: I feel that it should be based on American standards, just changing US dollars into RMB. Because there is an exchange rate between currencies in the world, if viewed from the inside of a country, the value of this country is equal to that of other countries. In other words, it can be assumed that 1 USD = 1 RMB.

1. In terms of income, if the annual income of the middle class in the United States is $30,000-10, then China should also be $30,000-10,000.

2. The middle class must own at least 1 apartment without mortgage, and the location of this at least 1 apartment must be at least in a third-tier city. Specifically, 1 square meter is more than 6000 yuan. The real estate area should be at least 60 square meters above the construction area. That is, a family of three can live in peace. Of course, from a practical point of view, middle-class families in China now generally have 2-3 houses. The building area is generally between 70- 120. The fixed assets are about 6,543,800 yuan+0.5 million yuan. But at least one of them has a mortgage.

3. A stable job. Whether you start your own business or work for others in a government, company or factory, it is conservatively estimated that the job stability should not exceed 5 years-10 years. Those who leave voluntarily are not included in this discussion.

4. The current assets that can be realized at any time should be 500-1000000. This is also an important criterion. In other words, if you want to do stock index futures, you should be able to open an account. Otherwise, it is not middle class.

You don't have to have a private car. Because many foreign middle-class people go to work in the city by subway. Moreover, a car is extremely cheap abroad, and the average working class has a car. In China, more and more domestic cars are mostly below 654.38+ 10,000. Therefore, taking public transport should become one of the main modes of transportation for the middle class, but it should not be used as a symbol of property.

6. If it is a middle-class family and a family of three counts, one of them must have a secondary professional and technical level or above (self-taught, people without diplomas also count, how to count it is another matter, not discussed here). In fact, they have received education above technical secondary school through social or their own efforts. Below this, it is impossible to be a middle-class family. It's no use just having money.

While the research report happily introduces the figure of 85%, which will build a beautiful picture for the middle class in China in the next 20 years, the middle class in big cities in China is surrounded by a heavy sense of crisis. Materially, "a house destroys a middle class" may become a reality in the soaring housing prices in 2009. In Beijing, institutional statistics show that the average price of projects to be opened in June only reached 1 16.7%. The high mortgage not only affects the happiness index of the middle class, but also further inhibits consumption. What's more, due to this material constraint, the rationality, stability, leisure and spiritual abundance that originally belonged to the middle class have also become nervous, fearful and neurotic. The regulator of society instantly becomes a pressure valve.

"Rationality" is the most important feature of modern society. In the economic, political and cultural life of a society, the rationality of the middle class is often manifested through their sense of responsibility to society. A society that has lost or is losing its middle class, in any sense, lurks a huge rational crisis.

It has been pointed out that if housing prices in big cities continue to increase at the rate of the past few years, the middle class in big cities will be completely deprived of major buyers in the next 5-8 years.

What kind of standards can accurately explain the elements that the middle class must have, and may eventually form an official and folk version. But people's minds have come to a conclusion that life is stable and rich.

The standards of the middle class will not and cannot remain the same, just as people's pursuit of quality of life will change. However, every era has its basic elements of happiness, and it will be the same 20 years later. Putting down the standard, bravely creating wealth and persistently pursuing dreams may have been above the standard.