1. On the morning of April 4, local time, the US non-farm payrolls report in March showed that there were192,000 new jobs in that month, and the unemployment rate remained at 6.7%. Previously, the outside world was quite optimistic about the new employment data in this report: the median was 206,000, and the unemployment rate was expected to be 6.6%. The actual data is still slightly lower than people's optimistic expectations.
2. Britain announced that it would keep the current interest rate policy unchanged. Moreover, Greece successfully issued 3 billion bonds, indicating that the country's economy showed signs of recovery, which boosted the market's hope for future economic recovery in the euro zone. According to the data released by Insee on Thursday (April 10), industrial output in February reversed the earlier decline and recorded a slight increase, but it was still less than market expectations.
In March, the CPI of China increased by 2.4% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous value, which was the first rebound in six months. However, in March, the PPI decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, which continued the expansion trend of the previous two months, making the market judge that the overall domestic industrial demand was unfavorable, and continued to confirm the fact that China's economic growth slowed down at the beginning of 20 14.
Second, natural rubber market trend analysis
According to the monitoring data of cable network, the spot price of natural rubber in China declined slightly this week. On Monday, the average price of natural rubber market remained at around 15 150 yuan/ton, and fell to14,900 yuan/ton at the weekend, with a decrease of 1.65%. This week, the shipment of natural rubber merchants was slow, the overall market atmosphere of natural rubber was light, the trading situation was not ideal, and the trading atmosphere decreased compared with last week.
The reasons for the decline in domestic natural rubber prices are as follows:
1. Macroscopically, this week's US non-agricultural data fell short of expectations, and the minutes of the latest meeting released by the Federal Reserve were biased towards doves. The dollar fell, while the situation in Ukraine rose again. Due to risk aversion, there are still doubts about the prospects of global economic recovery; Domestically, China's foreign trade, CPI, PPI and other data are weak, but at present, domestic policies are still focused on maintaining stability, so it is difficult to have strong stimulus measures in the short term. At present, the price of natural rubber is not supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of natural rubber have declined slightly.
Second, in terms of market, Yunnan state-owned whole milk10.5 million yuan/ton in Shanghai, down by 200 yuan/ton; Shandong province, Yunnan state-owned whole milk 15000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; Yunnan state-owned all latex reported 15000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton.
Third, in terms of inventory, as of this week, the rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased again, but the growth rate slowed down, and the total inventory approached 360,000 tons. Specifically, the inventory of composite rubber continued to decline, while the inventory of natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased. Among them, natural rubber increased by 1 10,000 tons, and composite rubber decreased by more than 7,000 tons.
Fourth, in terms of demand, the operating rate of Shandong Quangang tire this week was 72.8%, down 2% from last week. The operating rate of domestic semi-steel tires was 82%, which was the same as last week. The inventory level of semi-steel tire enterprises is reasonable and the ex-factory price is stable during the week. The price policy of manufacturers is relatively stable, and the export volume is relatively stable. Overall, the downstream demand of natural rubber is stable at present.
Market outlook forecast: this website analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment of repeated shocks in the market outlook of Hujiao. At present, rubber fundamentals still do not constitute a reversal force. From the perspective of rubber itself, the fundamentals of Hujiao are poor and it is difficult to boost the market. Market inventory pressure is high, downstream demand is light, and inventory pressure inhibits rubber prices. In the short term, natural rubber should maintain a weak shock and it is difficult to rebound sharply.
Third, the enterprise quotation summary
trademark
factory
price
High tide and low tide
SCRWF
Xinfei international
15,000
200
SCRWF
Shanghai Juyi
14,800
-200
SCRWF
Longxiang international
14,900
100
SCRWF
Rongrong international
15,000
100
SBR 1502
Tianjin lugang
1 1,300
SBR 17 12
Tianjin lugang
10,200
SBR 1502
Qilu petrifaction
1 1,600
SBR 17 12
Qilu petrifaction
10,200
SBR 1500
Lanzhou petrifaction
1 1,400
SBR 17 12
Lanzhou petrifaction
10,400
SBR 1502
Jilin petrifaction
1 1,500
SBR 17 12
Lanzhou petrifaction
10,200
BR9000
Daqing petrifaction
10,400
BR9000
Jinzhou petrifaction
10,400
BR9000
Dushanzi petrifaction
10,400
BR9000
Qilu petrifaction
10,700
BR9000
Yanshan petrifaction
10,620
BR9000
Baling petrifaction
10,200
Fourth, the regional market dynamics.
Natural rubber:
The quotation of Shanghai natural rubber market remained stable, with the quotation of Yunnan national standard 1 No.1 rubber around14,800 yuan/ton, Yunnan national standard No.2 rubber around13,800 yuan/ton, and Thai cigarette market around15,700 yuan/ton (1ton The price of 3L glue in Vietnam is around 15500 yuan/ton (17% tax).
Tianjin natural rubber market quotation fluctuation adjustment. The price quoted by Yunnan National Standard No.1 Rubber Market is about 1.49 million yuan/ton, the price quoted by Yunnan National Standard No.2 Rubber Market is about 1.40 million yuan/ton, the price quoted by Sanyan in Thailand is about 1.44 million yuan/ton (excluding tax), and the price quoted by 3L Rubber in Vietnam is about 1.42 million yuan.
The natural rubber market in Hengshui fluctuates slightly. The tender price of local Yunnan Bid 1 is around 1.5 million yuan/ton, Yunnan Bid 2 is around 1.38 million yuan/ton, Thailand Bid 3 cigarette is around 1.44 million yuan/ton (excluding tax), and Vietnam Bid 3 is around/kloc-.
The inventory of Hujiao futures is increasing every day, and the downstream demand has not yet picked up. The supply of natural rubber market still exceeds demand. Buyer traders can pay attention to buying opportunities when intraday prices fall. In recent days, the market has been relatively cautious, with a strong wait-and-see mood, mainly discussing, and the overall transaction is light.
Styrene butadiene rubber:
The styrene-butadiene rubber market in Shanghai fluctuated slightly, with local Qilu and Jihua 1502 quoted at around 12700 yuan/ton, and Qilu and Lanhua 17 12 quoted at around100 yuan/ton.
Market fluctuation adjustment of styrene-butadiene rubber in Hengshui area. The quotation of local Qilu and Jihua is about 12500 yuan/ton, and the quotation of oil-filled 17 12 is about 165438 yuan/ton.
Tianjin styrene-butadiene rubber market fluctuated lower, and Qilu and Jihua markets quoted about 1502 yuan/ton. The quotation of Qilu and Lanhua 17 12 is around 1 1000 yuan/ton.
Butadiene prices have been supported, the quotations of petrochemical enterprises tend to rise, traders have no shipping pressure, are cautious and wait-and-see, quotations are scarce, traders hold a wait-and-see attitude, and the overall market transaction is average.
Butadiene rubber:
The cis-polybutadiene rubber market in Hengshui area is weak and volatile. The price of Yanshan cis-polybutadiene rubber is around 1 1400 yuan/ton, and the specific transaction will be discussed again. Traders hold a wait-and-see attitude, and the spot demand in the market has not changed significantly.
Tianjin cis-polybutadiene rubber market is weak and fluctuating. The quotation of local Yanshan and Daqing Shunding is around 1 1.200 yuan/ton, and the quotation of Rand Shunding is around 10800 yuan/ton. The overall market demand is stable, most businesses hold a wait-and-see attitude, and the overall transaction is average.
Shanghai cis-butadiene rubber market shock adjustment. The local Gao Qiao Shunding quoted about 1 1500 yuan/ton, and Rand Shunding quoted about 1 100 yuan/ton. The deal will be confirmed through negotiation. Affected by upstream butadiene and demand, merchants are more cautious and wait and see.
Verb (abbreviation for verb) rubber stock
Last April 1 1 Weekly Natural Rubber Inventory in Designated Delivery Warehouse.
region
storehouse
Inventory last week
Inventory this week
Inventory increase or decrease
Shanghai
Shanghai changqiao
6240
4 190
59 14
4 190
-326
Crystallization is very light
8960
6 160
8660
6360
-300
200
Zhongchu Dachang
2 1344
15600
20389
15520
-955
-80
Zhongchu Lingang
24799
14360
24799
13380
-980
Combination plan
6 1343
403 10
59762
39450
- 158 1
-860
Shandong (province)
Orent
1 1320
10320
1 1050
10050
-270
-270
Qingdao 832
19280
17930
19470
17690
190
-240
Zhongyuan logistics
17992
13250
17992
13240
- 10
Combination plan
48592
4 1500
485 12
40980
-80
-520
Yunnan Province
Yunnan storage and transportation
15000
14240
15000
14240
Hainan
Haikou port
12620
7960
1 1 120
6460
- 1500
- 1500
New Cisco yonggui
12060
12060
12060
12060
Combination plan
24680
20020
23 180
18520
- 1500
- 1500
Tianjin
Zhongchu Nancang
22860
20460
22490
19 120
-370
- 1340
Whole process logistics
20000
15030
20000
15030
Combination plan
42860
35490
42490
34 150
-370
- 1340
be equal to
192475
15 1560
188944
147340
-353 1
-4220
Note: Subtotal refers to the quantity of goods that meet the delivery quality, and futures refers to the quantity of goods for which warehouse receipts have been made; Available storage capacity is the quantity that can be made into warehouse receipts.
Statistics of import and export data of intransitive verbs
Import and export data of natural rubber in 20 14 years
Import quantity
Import dollars
volume of exports
Export dollars
January
5704 1490
144698230
376589
9484 16
February
333 18444
83947736
1 1455 19
268520 1
VII. Downstream Market Demand
1, 20 14 The automobile production and sales situation was good in March, and the monthly production and sales reached a new high. In March, automobile production and sales entered the traditional peak season, and this month's production and sales exceeded 2 million vehicles, both hitting record highs and continuing to maintain a good development momentum. In March, the production and sales of automobiles were 220 1.7 million and 2 1.69 1 10,000, respectively, increasing by 34.4% and 35.8% over the previous month and 5.6% and 6.6% over the same period last year. In the first quarter, China's automobile production and sales reached 589 1.7 million and 5.9223 million respectively, both increasing by 9.2% compared with the same period of last year, and the growth rate dropped by 3.6 and 4 percentage points respectively. From June 5438 to March, automobile production and sales maintained steady growth, with the growth rate of passenger cars slightly lower than that of the previous year, and that of commercial vehicles higher than that of the previous year.
2. The operating rate of Shandong TISCO tire this week was 72.8%, down 2% from last week. The operating rate of domestic semi-steel tires was 82%, which was the same as last week. Affected by inventory pressure and falling rubber prices, many domestic all-steel tire enterprises lowered their ex-factory prices. The domestic demand for replacement tires rarely improves, which leads to a slight increase in tire construction, but the overall domestic freight volume is still relatively flat. The short-term tire market will continue the previous trend, with smooth operation as the mainstay.
3. Cable industry, on the one hand, its growth rate is 6.25%, which is lower than last year's12.87%; On the other hand, the growth rate of investment in power supply and power grid continued to slow down. The growth rate of power supply in the first 10 month became -0.66%, and the power grid slowed down from 10.8% in the first 9 months to 6.45%.
Eight, industry events:
1, Indian government intervention failed to raise the price of natural rubber.
According to the news of Kochi, India on April 3, the price of natural rubber has not risen since the Indian government initiated procurement measures, and the price has remained at Rs. Per kilogram 148- 149, due to the slow procurement progress. Rubber procurement agencies pointed out that the lack of funds is the main reason for the slow procurement. As of March 3 1 day, Kerala Cooperative Rubber Marketing Federation (Rubber Label) purchased 105 tons of rubber.
2, the Shanghai rubber is low, and the future rebound depends on the weather.
After Hujiao 1409 fell below 16000 yuan/ton at the end of February, it fell to 14375 yuan/ton after several twists and turns, but the highest was only 15995 yuan/ton, which was not easy to break. On a large scale, this round of decline of Hujiao began at the beginning of 20 13 and has been maintained for more than a year. We believe that in the long run, it is difficult to fundamentally change the loose supply of natural rubber. However, after a period of shock at the bottom, Hujiao may face a staged rebound, and the theme of speculation may be the weather.
3. Vietnam's rubber production has increased greatly, and the price war is imminent.
After several years of vigorous expansion, deforestation and the acquisition of land in neighboring countries to establish rubber plantations, Vietnam is reaping the fruits of labor: rubber production has greatly increased, making it the third largest rubber producer in the world. Later this year, rubber farmers will start harvesting wood rubber trees in new plantations. However, due to global oversupply and limited inventory capacity, Vietnam's increasing output may trigger a price war when rubber prices are at a low level for several years in a row.
Thailand is unwilling to sell its reserve of Hujiao.
Since March, the natural rubber market has stabilized and rebounded with wavelet. In April, the rebound trend of Hujiao slowed down slightly. By this Wednesday, the trend of Hujiao has not yet broken through the high point at the end of the month. In the past two trading days, there was a challenge of 16000 yuan, but it was not realized, indicating that the pressure of 16000 yuan was greater. Judging from the warehouse data, Hujiao's main force is still in the position of headroom advantage, but the headroom advantage has not been greatly expanded, and the competition between long and short positions is still fierce.
5, long and short factors intertwined In April, Hujiao was dominated by box vibration.
According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's natural rubber imports in February were19.10000 tons, up by 3 1.2% year-on-year. From June to February in 5438, a total of 534,000 tons of natural rubber were imported, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 34%. In March, the import of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 4,654,380,000 tons. According to the import level of synthetic rubber 1.4 million tons in the same period last year, it is estimated that the import of natural rubber will be around 370,000 tons, so the total import of natural rubber in the first quarter is 1 1.5 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2 1.3%.
6. Thailand is unwilling to sell its reserve of Hujiao.
Since March, the natural rubber market has stabilized and rebounded with wavelet. In April, the rebound trend of Hujiao slowed down slightly. By this Wednesday, the trend of Hujiao has not yet broken through the high point at the end of the month. In the past two trading days, there was a challenge of 16000 yuan, but it was not realized, indicating that the pressure of 16000 yuan was greater. Judging from the warehouse data, Hujiao's main force is still in the position of headroom advantage, but the headroom advantage has not been greatly expanded, and the competition between long and short positions is still fierce.