Source of fuel oil
The world oil-producing areas are mainly concentrated in the Middle East, South America, Africa, Russia and China. Fuel oil is basically produced in areas with refineries. In 1990s, China mainly imported fuel oil from Asian countries such as Singapore, Thailand, Japan and South Korea. With the continuous expansion of domestic import scale and the increasing demand for varieties, the import sources have expanded to Europe, South America and the Middle East, mainly including Singapore, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan Province Province of China, the Philippines, the Middle East and the west coast of the United States. In the past two years, the number of direct shipments from Europe to China has increased. The following briefly introduces the basic situation of several major producing areas:
South Korea
There are five refineries in Korea, including Hyundai Refinery in Daishan, Incheon Refinery in Incheon, SK Refinery in Ulsan, LG-CALTEX Refinery in Yosuke and Ssangyong Refinery in ONSA. At present, the fuel oil produced by modern refineries is basically straight-run 180CST, and the fuel oil exported by SK refinery is mainly straight-run oil. Fuel oil produced by other refineries is mainly blended oil and part of straight-run oil. South Korea's total annual export is about 2.4 million tons.
Singapore
Nearly half of the fuel oil imported from Huangpu market comes from Singapore, including the fuel oil lightered from anchorage off the coast of Malaysia and Indonesia. The fuel oil in this area is mainly blended oil, especially marine fuel oil, whose specific gravity and viscosity are close to the upper limit of most user specifications in China.
There are four refineries in Singapore that can produce fuel oil, and the products are mainly supplied to local power plants. The amount of marine fuel oil delivered to the local area once exceeded 2 million tons per year, but it has declined in recent years. Huge market demand, excellent port conditions, standardized management and financial support have made Singapore the fuel oil trading center in Asia.
Taiwan Province Province, China
The refinery of China Petroleum and Natural Gas Corporation (CPC) in Taiwan Province can export 60,000-80,000 tons of 65,438+080 CST fuel oil every month. Its oil has the characteristics of low viscosity, low density and low freezing point, and is favored by domestic users because of its good quality. After Formosa Plastics Refinery was put into operation, the output of high-sulfur fuel oil increased, and the monthly export could reach 654.38+500,000 tons.
Russia
The fuel oil produced in Russia is basically straight-run 180CST fuel oil, commonly known as "M- 100", with an annual export volume of 3-5 million tons. This product is characterized by low sulfur content (generally below 1.5%), low viscosity (generally below 160CST) and low density (generally below 0.96). The price is generally lower than that of Korean and Japanese low-sulfur oil with the same sulfur content, but higher than that of straight-run oil in the Middle East and Taiwan Province Province.
Rotterdam
Rotterdam is now the port with the largest cargo throughput in the world, and its refining capacity accounts for more than half of the total capacity of the Netherlands. It is one of the three major oil refining centers in the world, and also a transit and deployment base for European oil trade. With the increasing demand for sulfur content in marine fuel oil in Europe, more and more fuel oil with sulfur content exceeding 1% will be exported to Asia.
Middle East
Domestic countries that import fuel oil from the Middle East are mainly Iran and Saudi Arabia. In recent two years, 280CST straight-run fuel oil from Iran has been favored. At first, it was blended in Singapore to meet the use requirements. Considering the transportation cost, it was transported to the China market. At present, due to the demand of domestic refineries for this oil product, it is basically unnecessary to directly blend and transport it to China for use. The fuel oil in Saudi Arabia is mainly A96 1, which belongs to pyrolysis oil and is mainly used by domestic power plants.
In addition to the main fuel oil suppliers mentioned above, Venezuelan Orie emulsified oil and 180CST from South America also entered the China market in large quantities, and Brazil exported about 3 million tons/year of low-sulfur 380CST fuel oil to Asia.
Domestic fuel oil output
China mainly imports fuel oil. Domestic fuel oil is mainly produced by refineries under China Petroleum and China Petrochemical and a few local refineries. In recent years, with the sharp decline in fuel oil production of the two major groups, domestic fuel oil production has shown a downward trend. The main reason is that in order to improve the yield of light oil such as diesel gasoline, refineries have increased the proportion of processing imported light crude oil, resulting in a decline in the yield of heavy oil products. In addition, due to the overcapacity of refineries for a long time, the crude oil processing capacity has been limited, which has promoted the development of heavy oil deep processing technology in China. At present, expanding the deep processing capacity of heavy oil and building catalytic cracking and residue hydrogenation units have become an important way for major refineries to tap potential and increase efficiency, resulting in a decline in fuel oil output and quality.
Domestic fuel users
The power industry is the largest fuel oil consumption industry in China, accounting for more than 40% of the national fuel oil consumption. Due to the continuous power shortage in recent years, the power industry has become the backbone of fuel oil demand. From the end of 2004 to 2005, the overall demand for power plants gradually decreased due to the continuous high international oil prices and the price control of the power industry by the state. Because fuel occupies a considerable proportion in the production cost of oil-fired power plants, the price it can bear must have a certain limit. In 2005, the price of fuel oil in Singapore once exceeded $300, and the domestic fuel oil price hit a record high of 3,400 yuan/ton. Excessive prices have seriously weakened the overall demand of domestic fuel oil users. However, due to various reasons, power plants always need to generate electricity, and its demand is still the largest industry in the overall demand of fuel oil market.
Petroleum and petrochemical industry is the second largest fuel oil consumption industry in China, which is mainly used for fertilizer raw materials and fuels of petrochemical enterprises. Due to the soaring international oil prices and the macro-control of domestic refined oil prices, the demand for fuel oil in this industry has fallen sharply, and its proportion in the whole fuel oil market is extremely unstable, which often changes greatly with the actual market situation. At some point, they may run at full capacity, but due to changes in international oil prices or domestic price adjustments and changes in domestic policies, their operating rate may soon drop below 50.
In addition to the above two industries, the users of fuel oil also include some industrial users, mainly some building materials and light industries, such as ceramic factories and glass factories. Although the proportion of demand is not very large, it is basically stable and has a trend of continuous increase.
Guangdong province is the largest fuel oil consumption terminal market. Here is a brief introduction to the use of fuel oil by major users in Guangdong Province.
1. power plant: according to the requirements of its equipment, power plants can be divided into three categories: gas-fired units have the highest requirements for fuel, generally with low metal and low specific gravity oil; Diesel engine sets have lower requirements for fuel quality than gas engine sets, mainly using Singapore oil, Japan oil, Korea oil and Middle East oil, and generally using blending/cracking oil; Steam turbines have the lowest requirements for fuel oil, mainly burning all kinds of low-quality residual oil, and 180CST imported from Singapore can basically meet their requirements.
2. Industrial users: Most industrial users basically use boiler fuel oil, and generally have low requirements for fuel oil quality, mainly using ordinary high-sulfur fuel oil.
The fuel indicators required by various users as fuel are roughly shown in the following table:
3. Fuel oil processing enterprises refer to enterprises that obtain industrial fuel oil and residual oil through vacuum distillation of fuel oil. Its demand is mainly Russian M 100 and other straight-run fuel oil that can be reprocessed. Among them, Russian M 100 is mainly used in Shandong, and Russian M 100 is also used in Guangdong. At the same time, straight-run oil from South Korea's SK, Hyundai and other refineries and the Middle East is also widely used. Distilled industrial fuel oil and residual oil will be mainly used in ceramics, glass, small power plants and heating furnaces. The fuel oil that this kind of users can use is limited to straight-run oil, basically all kinds of straight-run oil can be used, and the viscosity requirement is not great. Considering the cost, many enterprises also welcome 280 straight-run oil.
4. Marine fuel: Marine fuel oil also occupies a large proportion in the whole fuel oil market. Generally speaking, marine fuel oil can be divided into two categories, one is heavy diesel oil and the other is fuel oil. Heavy diesel oil is basically aimed at some small diesel ships. At first, diesel oil was used as fuel. At present, heavy diesel oil is basically used. The quality of heavy diesel oil is close to that of diesel oil, but the density is too high and the chromaticity is slightly poor. Ships that use fuel are basically large ships, and the quality of fuel used is different. The fuel oil of 180CST and 380CST often mentioned, even worse, can be used as fuel for some large ships. Domestic fuel oil is generally of poor quality and widely used as marine fuel, a large part of which comes from imports. Because the process of managing marine fuel oil is complicated, the general fuel oil trade involved in this book does not include the trade of marine fuel oil, but it should also be noted that the share of marine fuel oil in the whole fuel oil market is relatively large. Trading companies engaged in marine fuel oil include Sinopec Zhonghai Marine Fuel Supply Co., Ltd. and China Marine Fuel Co., Ltd. ..
Domestic fuel oil market
Fuel oil imported from China is mainly digested in the following three markets: South China market (accounting for 46.32%-2003), East China market (accounting for 35.53%-2003) and North China market (accounting for 15.3 1%-2003). In 2004, the fuel oil market in South China and East China developed greatly. The total import volume of South China in 2004 was 65,438+0,896,5438+0,765,438+0,000 tons, an increase of about 70% over the previous year. At the same time, it accounts for 6 1.94% of the country's total imports. The total import volume of East China market has also increased significantly, especially in Shandong market. In 2004, the demand for straight-run oil increased sharply, and the consumption of straight-run oil increased greatly. However, the North China market has basically not developed greatly, but has shrunk to a certain extent.
Domestic fuel oil traders
As a pilot market of China's oil market mechanism reform, the fuel oil market is the most open among all refined oil markets. For this reason, the participation of domestic private enterprises in the fuel oil market is also the largest among all oil products markets. With the gradual liberalization of the fuel oil market by national policies, China's fuel oil market has developed by leaps and bounds, and it has also played a good guiding role in the opening of other oil products markets. Since the opening of the fuel oil market, many companies have the right to operate and import fuel oil.
Although many companies have the right to operate, the actual business volume of fuel oil in most companies is not large. Judging from the operation in the past two years, the fuel oil business is mainly concentrated in more than a dozen larger companies.
Characteristics of China Fuel Oil Market
Fuel oil is the refined oil with the highest degree of marketization, the most open policy and the closest price fluctuation to the international market in China.
20011015 The new oil pricing method promulgated by the State Planning Commission officially liberalized the price of fuel oil, and the circulation and price of fuel oil were completely regulated by the market. Since June 65438+1 October12004, the state has abolished the import and export quota of fuel oil and implemented automatic import license management, which has basically brought China's fuel oil market into line with international standards. But at the same time, China's fuel oil market is immature, lacking transparency and standardized management, and there are great credit risks and price risks.
First of all, fuel oil is different from other refined oils. The users of fuel oil are basically large industrial enterprises. Due to the limitation of its capital turnover period, the industry is used to selling on credit, and traders have to bear huge capital credit risks. In recent years, domestic commercial banks have actively promoted bill settlement, requiring buyers and sellers to standardize management and strengthen supervision, which has promoted the healthy development of the market to some extent.
Secondly, traders have to bear the risks that may be brought by price fluctuations. China is the largest importer of fuel oil in Asia, but the domestic market has not yet formed its own price system, and there are no active hedging tools such as oil options and futures. Domestic importers and users passively accept the prices of foreign price systems. Singapore's fuel oil is mainly used by ships, while the domestic fuel oil market is affected by national policies, market supply and demand, seasonal factors, oil prices and other factors. The import cost is priced at Singapore market price, but sold at domestic spot price. When the two markets are out of sync, the importing traders or users will bear huge risks.
Facing the huge market demand, several professional oil information companies in China have been trying to establish the fuel oil pricing system in China in recent years. For example, Beijing Jinkaixun Petroleum Information Network has established an online information platform to report the price information of domestic and foreign oil markets in real time; C 1 Information Consulting Co., Ltd. introduces the price and discount of Huangpu fuel oil; In 2004, Dow Jones, Platts, argus and other foreign professional information companies also published the spot price and market report of Huangpu fuel oil, which will play a positive role in promoting the marketization, informatization and benchmark price formation of domestic fuel oil.
In order to improve the domestic fuel oil market system, the fuel oil futures contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange was successfully launched on August 25, 2004 with the approval of relevant departments of the State Council and other countries and after years of preliminary research and preparation. This makes it possible to improve China's fuel oil market system and compete for the right to speak on fuel oil prices. After a period of trading, domestic fuel oil futures have gradually developed into a mature variety, and began to play an active role in hedging and price discovery.
The standard fuel oil contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange is shown in the following table:
Annex to the fuel oil standard contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange
1, delivery unit
The delivery unit of fuel oil standard contract is 10 lot (100 ton), and the delivery quantity must be an integer multiple of the delivery unit.
2, quality regulations
Shanghai Futures Exchange Fuel Oil Quality Standard:
Distribution of domestic fuel oil futures delivery warehouses:
As the fuel oil trade is mainly concentrated in South China, as a new variety, the first delivery warehouses of fuel oil futures are all in Guangdong Province.
Attached Table: Designated Fuel Oil Warehouse of Shanghai Futures Exchange
Pricing method of imported fuel oil
China's fuel oil import trade is basically completed in Singapore market. No matter where the imported oil comes from, the import price is basically based on Singapore MOPS price. Commonly used valuation methods mainly adopt fixed price and floating price, in which fixed price is the fixed price agreed by buyers and sellers to determine the contract price. Because the risks of both buyers and sellers are great, fixed prices are rarely used in actual transactions. The floating price is formed by the buyer and the seller taking the weighted average of the middle price of MOPS within the agreed time interval as the benchmark price, plus the discount. The agreed time is generally five days, but there are also fifteen days and the average of the whole month. The purchase cost of floating price is: MOPS average price+discount.
MOPS average price: MOPS is the abbreviation of Mean of Platt's Singapore, which literally means the average price of Platt in Singapore. Pricing is based on five days. If the price is set for five days, there are several ways to choose (2+ 1+2, 2+0+2, 3+0+2, etc. ). For most transactions, the pricing date is based on the date of the bill of lading. If it is 2+ 1+2, the actual pricing date is the bill of lading. If it is 3+0+2, it means that the actual pricing date is three days before and two days after the date of the bill of lading. This calculation is basically because the date of the bill of lading is a public holiday in Singapore and there is no price. Generally, if the date of the bill of lading is a working day in Singapore, the pricing is mainly 2+ 1+2. If the valuation date is a public holiday and there is no price, it will be postponed forward or backward. There is also pricing that is not based on the bill of lading. For example, tankers from South America, the United States, the Middle East or Europe go directly to China. Because of the long distance, if the goods are priced based on the date of bill of lading, the price of the goods may have changed greatly when they arrive in China, which is unfavorable to the buyer. Therefore, goods directly from the above places will generally be priced by NOR (Notice of Readiness), and the commonly used basic pricing date is NOR.
Discount: Discount includes offshore discount and onshore discount. Offshore discount refers to the increase or decrease of benchmark price, which is mainly affected by market supply and demand, oil quality and export place. In addition, the order quantity, batch size, delivery time and mutual credit of customers will also affect the level of offshore discount; Landing discount is equal to offshore discount plus freight, and the level of freight is affected by factors such as ship structure, size, ship age, distance, supply and demand in shipping market, etc. Most of the discount clauses in contracts signed by domestic traders and foreign suppliers are onshore discounts.
In the spot market, buyers and sellers basically trade at floating prices. Because all aspects of the transaction have formed certain conventions, the two sides mainly talk about the discount when negotiating. Once the discount is confirmed, the transaction can basically be reached.
It should be noted that the influence of quality on offshore discounts is very important. At present, domestic fuel oil producing areas include Singapore, South Korea, Russia, the United States, the Middle East, Europe, South America and other countries. Due to the difference between crude oil and processing technology, the quality of the products produced varies greatly. Platts only reported two standard specifications of fuel oil, namely 180CST and 380CST. So in Asia, all fuel oils are quoted according to these two specifications. The fuel price that is better or worse than the standard 180CST or 380CST is determined by increasing or decreasing the discount of the benchmark price.
Calculation of cost of imported fuel oil
The average MOPS price+discount mentioned above is the landed cost of imported fuel oil, but the importer must roughly estimate the total import cost in the sales process to determine the actual sales price. Import costs can basically be determined in the following ways:
(MOPS average price+discount) ×1.2402× 8.11+various expenses, among which MOPS average price and discount have been explained before; 1.2402 is the sum of import tariff (6%) and value-added tax (17%), that is, (1+0.06) ×1.17,8.1/. What needs to be pointed out in particular is that due to China's preferential tariff policy towards the five ASEAN countries, the import tariff of fuel oil originating in Singapore is adjusted to 5%, so the fuel oil cost from Singapore that can enjoy the 5% tariff should be calculated as: (MOPS average price+discount) ×1.2285× 8.1+various expenses.