The main factors driving the rise of international oil prices x
Generally speaking, the international crude oil price is determined by the following factors: first, the dependence of the world economy on crude oil (indispensable and irreplaceable) and the limitation of crude oil reserves and output make the crude oil price very sensitive to the factors affecting supply and demand, and it fluctuates greatly. Second, the imbalance of crude oil supply and demand structure makes the relationship between crude oil supply and demand tend to be tense. Every link from reserve, production, transportation, refining to sales is very important, and the change of factors in any link will affect the fluctuation of crude oil price. Third, although the supply and demand of crude oil are roughly equal, any variable of supply and demand or related variables that affect supply and demand often determines the price trend in a certain period. Uncertainties such as wars, terrorist attacks, oil workers' strikes and other emergencies have seriously affected or even influenced the trend of oil prices. Fourthly, under normal circumstances, the decline of crude oil inventory has little supporting effect on oil prices during economic recession, while the increase of crude oil inventory has a greater destructive effect on oil prices; In the stage of economic recovery and prosperity, the increase of crude oil inventory has a stabilizing effect on oil prices, but the decline of crude oil inventory will greatly support the rise of oil prices. Fifth, in the economic recession, the demand for crude oil decreases and the price falls, so it is often difficult for oil-producing countries to reduce production, and increasing production will accelerate the decline of oil prices; However, when the economy recovers, the demand for crude oil increases and the oil price rises, increasing production has limited effect on stabilizing the oil price rise, while reducing production will obviously aggravate the price rise. Sixth, speculation and market expectations in the crude oil market often increase the fluctuation of crude oil prices. The influence of speculative factors in the international crude oil market on crude oil prices is 10%-20%. (A-Xa
Judging from the recent sharp rise in international oil prices, it is mainly the result of the following six factors: h} @>
1, the global economic recovery is constantly pushing the oil demand to increase, which is the basic incentive. Since the beginning of this year, the global economy has grown rapidly, and the demand for crude oil has exceeded the expectations of international authorities in advance. In particular, the economic growth of the United States and China, the two largest crude oil consumers in the world, is strong, and the economic situation of Japan, the third largest crude oil consumer, has also improved significantly. According to the latest forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global daily demand for crude oil increased by 3.3% in 2004 and by 3.9% in the first half of this year. The total daily demand of the global market is 82.2 million barrels (see Figure 2). Global oil demand only increased by 0.78% in 2002, and rose to 2.2% in 2003. Therefore, the continuous improvement of the global economy in the past two years has led to a sharp increase in oil demand close to its maximum supply capacity, leaving supply and demand in a fragile balance, which is the basic factor that triggered this wave of rising oil prices. ! ~r
2. OPEC's production capacity is running low. According to the forecast of us energy information administration (EIA), the daily supply of global crude oil in 2004 was 82.7 million barrels, an increase of 4.2%. Among them, the OPEC crude oil supply was 28.8 million barrels per day, up 6.3% year-on-year. Therefore, from the perspective of supply and demand, the global crude oil supply is slightly greater than the demand this year. However, the commercial inventory of major developed countries is at a historical low level, which makes the global supply relatively tight. In particular, the surplus capacity of OPEC countries is very limited, only about 1 0,000-10.5 million barrels per day. Except for Saudi Arabia, all other member countries have produced oil at full capacity. Although there is no global supply shortage, it is certain that the output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is approaching the existing capacity limit, which makes people worry about the supply prospect of world crude oil. 0qp
3. The decision of OPEC to reduce production at the beginning of the year added fuel to the fire. At the beginning of this year, because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was worried about the drop in oil prices and adopted the policy of limiting production and protecting prices, OPEC's misjudgment of the situation made the oil market fuel the fire. At the ministerial meeting on February 10, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to reduce the daily limit of crude oil by 1 10,000 barrels from April 1 0, and the price of crude oil in the international market rose accordingly. Although the oil price of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has exceeded the price control ceiling of $28 for more than 80 consecutive trading days, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has not started the mechanism of increasing production, but reduced production by 654.38+100,000 barrels per day to maintain high oil prices. In addition, due to the strong recovery of the world economy, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is not too worried that high oil prices will impact the world economy and cause mutual losses. Trying to keep oil prices at a high level is naturally an ideal choice for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. 0Tx6
4. The exchange rate of US dollar has fallen. Since April 2002, the dollar has been depreciating continuously. Although it has rebounded recently, oil export revenue has been greatly reduced because oil exports have been mainly denominated in dollars for a long time. Some countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries believe that the depreciation of the US dollar leads to the decline in the real price of oil denominated in US dollars, which is 2-3 dollars lower than their bottom line (25 dollars). Therefore, the countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have actually given up the earlier promise of "starting the automatic production increase mechanism when the oil price is higher than $28 for 20 consecutive days", and instead tend to control the oil price at the upper limit of the price band. QQ93
5. Uncertainty such as terrorist attacks is the main reason for short-term fluctuations. First of all, after the main battle of the United States against Iraq, the terrorist attacks on oil facilities continued, which led to the turmoil in Iraq and made it difficult for oil exports to return to the pre-war level, adding a new shadow to the world oil market. Secondly, the domestic political situation in Venezuela, the third largest oil producer of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, is unstable, which seriously affects the production and export of crude oil. Third, in May this year, the Russian government issued an ultimatum to Yukos Company, demanding to recover the huge tax arrears. The bank account of Yukos Oil Company is frozen, and Yukos Company faces the threat of bankruptcy, which directly affects oil production and export. The daily oil output of Yukos Company is 654.38+700,000 barrels, accounting for 2% of the global total output. !
6. Speculation contributed to the soaring oil price. The relationship between oil supply and demand tends to be tense, and various geopolitical conflicts occur frequently, creating conditions for speculation. The speculation of international speculators has enhanced people's psychological expectation of tight crude oil supply in the international market and artificially raised the international oil price. It is estimated that about 70% of the current international oil futures transactions are speculative. According to a recent survey in Reuters, analysts expect that the price of crude oil in the US market has increased by about $8 per barrel due to speculation. a)pB
Basic judgment on the trend of international oil price in the next few months.
There are different opinions on the trend of international oil price in the next stage, but there are three views: first, it will continue to climb; The second is high-level operation; Third, the high level has fallen back. ZpZ3G+
Business, traders and investment analysts believe that some key factors pushing up oil prices will not change fundamentally in the short term, so international oil prices will remain high in the short term. If the supply of crude oil is seriously affected, the oil price is likely to rise again at the existing price and break through the "barrier" of $50 per barrel. Once the market lacks oil from Iraq and Venezuela, oil prices will soar to a high of $70 a barrel. Y pO
Oil companies and oil-producing countries believe that international oil prices will run at a high level and there is limited room for falling back. The slowdown in global crude oil demand growth in the second half of the year will not lead to a sharp drop in oil prices, because even if demand slows down, the gap between supply and demand is still very large, and there is limited room for oil prices to fall. At present, the capacity utilization rate of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil-producing areas is basically saturated, so the pressure of falling oil prices will be very easy. The only thing that will further push down oil prices is the hard landing of China and the United States, because these two countries are the driving force of world economic development and oil importers. |U~kT
Some international organizations believe that international oil prices will fall from the current high level. After the oil price reaches a peak of nearly $50, it will return to a stable level of around $30 a barrel in a few months. Once the current turmoil disappears, market forces will eventually stabilize oil prices and return to equilibrium prices within a few months. Because in fact, the growth potential of the world oil supply is greater than the demand, oil-producing countries still have a certain capacity to increase production, the member countries of the International Energy Agency have billions of barrels of strategic oil reserves, and many countries are also establishing strategic reserves, so there is still room for security in the international oil market. I
We believe that, based on comprehensive analysis of information from all parties, the international oil price (WTI) will not remain at a high level of more than 40 US dollars per barrel for a long time, and it is expected to steadily fall back to the price of about 35 US dollars per barrel before the end of the year, with an annual average of about 38 US dollars per barrel. This judgment is based on the following reasons: H 'C9
First, global economic growth shows signs of slowing down. In the second quarter of this year, the US economic growth was revised downward to 2.8%, which was significantly lower than the economist's expectation of 3.6%, and the growth rate was lowered by 1.7 percentage points compared with the first quarter. Japan's economic growth has also slowed down. In the second quarter, GDP only increased by 1.7%, down 3.9 percentage points from the first quarter. With the gradual effect of macro-control policies, China's economic growth will also slow down moderately, and the demand for oil will decrease. Therefore, under the double blow of high oil prices and global interest rate hikes, the growth rate of the world economy may be restrained, thus reducing the demand for crude oil. According to us energy information administration's forecast, the global demand for crude oil will increase by 2.6% in the second half of this year, 0.6 percentage points lower than that in the first half. vG0Oy=
Secondly, after a period of replenishment, crude oil stocks have increased. By the end of July, US commercial crude oil inventories reached 298.6 million barrels, an increase of 654.38+84 million barrels. The national strategic oil reserve reached the highest level in history, reaching 664.5 million barrels. According to the latest report of the International Energy Agency, the global oil inventory increased at a rate of 300,000 barrels per day and 6,543.8+0.5 million barrels per day in the first two quarters of this year respectively. B~=a
Third, several uncertain factors affecting the international oil market are expected to ease. First of all, with the restoration of Iraq's sovereignty, it will help the domestic reconstruction process and ease the domestic situation. A stable domestic environment is a prerequisite for Iraq to supply crude oil to the international market. Second, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez won the referendum and will remain in power until the end of his term in June 5438 +2007 10, which will help ease the domestic turmoil in Venezuela and ensure the normal production and export of crude oil. Third, whether it is acquired by state-owned oil companies, or foreign equity participation, or bankruptcy, the Yukos incident in Russia, which has gone through nearly a year, will come to an end in the near future. “H
Fourth, the high profit-taking of international speculative institutions that participated in oil price speculation in the early stage will also cause oil prices to fluctuate lower. '
The Impact of International Oil Price Rising on China's Economy |
At present, China is in the middle stage of industrialization. With the rapid development of manufacturing industry, the consumption of oil and other energy sources has increased sharply, the import has increased year by year, and the dependence on foreign countries has been increasing. Because the growth mode of extensive economic in China has not changed substantially, the proportion of high energy-consuming industries is too high and the output value of GDP per unit energy consumption is too low; At the same time, China has not yet established a relatively perfect oil market system, with a single trade mode, rigid pricing mechanism and slow market response. Undoubtedly, the soaring international oil price has brought many negative impacts on China's economic operation and residents' life. High oil prices will not only increase foreign exchange expenditure, increase enterprise costs and household consumption expenditure, but also aggravate inflationary pressure. However, the current high oil price will not change the basic trend of China's economic growth. n
The adverse effects of rising international oil prices on China's economy are mainly manifested in the following aspects: qR+
1, increase foreign exchange expenditure and increase the pressure of foreign exchange balance. According to preliminary estimation, the average price of crude oil per barrel this year is estimated to be around $38, which is as high as 10 compared with the average price of $28 last year. It is estimated that China will import1.20 billion tons of crude oil, accounting for 880 million barrels. The rise of international crude oil price to $ 10 per barrel will directly cause China to spend $8.8 billion more in foreign exchange to buy oil. Moreover, the import of crude oil alone will cause a trade deficit of more than $30 billion this year, which will bring great pressure to China's trade balance. “G
2. Increase the cost of enterprises and reduce the profit rate. With the rise of oil price, the price of petroleum-related products will inevitably rise, which will increase the cost of enterprises in China and directly affect transportation, metallurgy, fishery, light industry, petrochemical, agriculture and other related industries to varying degrees. In the current international and domestic markets where supply exceeds demand, all or most of the production costs of these industries due to rising oil prices cannot be passed on to downstream enterprises or final consumers, so the profitability of all walks of life will decline or even lead to serious losses, enterprises may shrink their production scale, and the economic vitality of the whole society will also decline. -s2 f:
3. Increase residents' consumption expenditure. Individual consumers will directly become the recipients of high oil prices. Since the beginning of this year, due to the rise in international oil prices, China has raised the price of refined oil products three times, which has obviously increased the expenditure of some consumers in this regard and led to some consumption tightening or consumption transfer behaviors. The rise in oil prices has become one of the main reasons for the weak sales of family cars this year. h6
4. Intensify the potential inflationary pressure. The continuous rise in international oil prices will raise domestic energy prices, and the prices of related industries that use oil as energy or raw materials will rise, forming a new price increase factor. The new round of price increase in China since the end of last year has two sources, one is the increase in food prices, and the other is the increase in energy and raw material prices. Due to the pressure of rising international oil prices, China has raised the price of refined oil products three times, which has aggravated the potential inflationary pressure to some extent. According to the report of the International Energy Agency, the Economic Department of OECD and the Research Department of IMF in May 2004, if the oil price rises by 10 USD a year, the inflation rate in China will increase by 0.8 percentage points. alcoholic anonymous
5. Deteriorating the external economic environment of China. The high oil price since this year has had a certain negative impact on the economic growth of countries such as the United States, Japan and Europe. Judging from the economic data in the second quarter, the economic growth rate shows signs of slowing down. The slowdown of economic growth in major economies will reduce China's external demand to some extent and affect China's foreign trade exports. n
However, high oil prices will not change the basic trend of China's rapid economic growth. First of all, the current rise in oil prices is the result of various accidental factors. Without long-term characteristics, oil prices will fall back to a more suitable price. Secondly, a series of macro-economic control measures will help to alleviate the shortage of China oil market and the inflationary pressure caused by rising oil prices. Thirdly, at present, the benefits of enterprises in China are still relatively good, which can, to some extent, alleviate the cost pressure brought by high oil prices. In the first seven months of this year, industrial enterprises above designated size in China maintained a profit growth rate of 39.7%. Fourthly, in China's energy consumption structure, raw coal accounts for about 70%, and oil accounts for about 23%, which is not dominant. Although the proportion of crude oil and natural gas is rising, it will have a certain negative impact on China's economy, but its impact is still under control. Fifth, the actual average transaction price of crude oil is lower than people usually think. On the one hand, because some oil import contracts have already determined the price in advance; On the other hand, new york West Texas crude oil, which is widely concerned, is a good variety. Usually, the oil price is 2-3 dollars higher than the European Brent oil price and 5-6 dollars higher than the OPEC package oil price. According to customs statistics, the average import price of crude oil in China in the first half of this year was US$ 33.8 per barrel, up by 13% year-on-year, and the average import price of refined oil increased by 6. 1% year-on-year, far lower than the increase of 2 1% in new york and European markets in the same period. u]@m 1
Measures to be taken in the near future 4#0P5J
1. Raise energy conservation to the level of basic national policy. In 2003, the consumption of crude oil and raw coal in China was 7.4% and 3 1% of the world's respectively, while the GDP created was only 4% of the world's. China's energy consumption is very high, its energy utilization rate is very low, and its energy-saving potential is huge. In the face of the impact of rising international oil prices on China's economic operation and people's lives, we must take practical measures to carry out energy-saving activities in an all-round way and raise energy-saving to the height of the basic national policy. ~a=
2. Accelerate the marketization of domestic oil pricing. At present, the domestic "quasi-price" is still set by the state, which is one month later than the international market. From the perspective of price mechanism, China oil market is far from being truly marketized. Recently, the introduction of fuel oil futures trading is of great milestone significance. However, the proportion of fuel oil in China's total oil consumption is small, and the futures price of fuel oil cannot achieve the function of hedging and avoiding risks of the whole oil product. However, other oil products are currently in a low degree of marketization and cannot be traded in futures. With the sustained and rapid economic growth and increasing demand for crude oil, China has become the second largest crude oil consumer in the world. With China's share in the Asian crude oil market, it is entirely possible to launch its own crude oil-related futures to form a landmark regional market price, which can resist the risks brought by price fluctuations to some extent. Therefore, China should speed up the marketization of domestic refined oil prices, change the situation that oil prices rise more and fall less, further standardize the price formation mechanism, and accelerate the introduction of mature varieties of futures trading. ]
3, the use of part of the national debt funds to develop and utilize new energy. Developing alternative energy and renewable energy is the world trend of sustainable development, and it is also an urgent task for China to transform its economic growth mode. China has the ability to compete with conventional energy sources in solar water heaters, wind power generation and solar photovoltaic power generation, geothermal heating and geothermal power generation, and biomass energy utilization technology. With appropriate policy support, it is expected to become an alternative energy source. Increasing the proportion of new energy sources in energy consumption and reducing dependence on imported oil as much as possible are major issues facing China's energy construction in the future. The government can consider using part of the national debt funds to support the development of new energy. y .UL
4. Intensify oil exploration and development along the coast of China. At present, the South China Sea and the East China Sea are rich in underground oil and gas resources. Strengthening exploration in these places can increase China's self-production capacity of oil and reduce its dependence on foreign oil. China should actively develop these resources while shelving disputes; At the same time, it is necessary to maintain good relations with neighboring countries, avoid vicious competition for oil resources, and ensure the safety of maritime oil transportation. [V
Repatriation of overseas oil shares as much as possible when the international oil price is high. In recent years, the "going out" strategy of China petroleum enterprises has achieved certain results. At present, China Petroleum owns shares in Sudan, Venezuela, Peru and Kazakhstan, and has produced 60 million tons of crude oil overseas. In addition, China oil companies such as Sinopec and CNOOC have also extended their reach overseas. When the international oil price rises sharply and the domestic import cost rises sharply, the share of oil produced by China oil enterprises should be repatriated as much as possible to reduce the price risk of directly importing crude oil from the international market.