Previous data showed that the crude oil inventory in the US crude oil delivery center increased in the last week, which aggravated investors' concerns that the troubled emerging markets and trade tensions would weaken the fuel demand prospects.
Cushing crude oil stocks have been decreasing, partly because a Canadian oil processing plant stopped production, which reduced the inflow of crude oil into the center. Canada's synthetic crude oil processing plant has started to increase the output of light oil, and it is expected to resume full production in September.
Up to now, American Oil is now reporting $67.53/barrel, up 0.49%; Brent crude oil is now quoted at 72.9 1 USD/barrel, with an increase of 0.4 1%.
The continued strength of the dollar is not good for oil prices.
International crude oil prices have been caught in a long and short tug-of-war for nearly a month. Under the doubts of Iran's sanctions and trade war, the future prospects are still unclear. In recent days, the US dollar index has further shown a strong trend, which may put additional pressure on oil prices in the later period.
Generally speaking, including oil, the trend of commodity prices denominated in US dollars is generally opposite to that of the US dollar index, so the continuous surge of the US dollar index is obviously unfavorable to the oil price prospect.
It is expected that the prospect of crude oil demand will come under additional pressure.
At the same time, the initiator of the rise of the US dollar is that many emerging market economies such as Turkey suddenly fall into economic panic, and if emerging market economies, which are the main force of oil demand growth, fall into a quagmire, the prospect of crude oil demand will face additional pressure.
The prospect of this short position seems to mask the possible benefits of Iran's sanctions and its ban on exporting oil, so oil prices in Europe and the United States soared on Monday. Although oil prices have recovered some of the decline in the case of supply concerns, it is no longer appropriate to look at the market outlook.
According to CFTC data, as of the week of August 7, hedge funds and other fund managers reduced their bullish positions on WTI crude oil futures and options.
This has intensified people's fears that the deepening trade war between the United States, China and the European Union will squeeze the business activities of the world's largest economy.
Turkey is a relatively small oil consumer, with an average daily oil consumption of less than 6.5438+0 million barrels, accounting for about 654.38+0% of global demand. However, concerns about the spread of the crisis are triggering risk aversion.
OEPC monthly report is generally empty.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries predicts that the demand for its crude oil will decrease next year as competitors increase production. The organization also said that Saudi Arabia, a major oil exporter, has cut production to avoid another oversupply.
According to the monthly report of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, crude oil output increased by 40,000 barrels per day in July to 32.323 million barrels per day. The monthly report reduces the average daily demand growth of global crude oil by 20,000 barrels to 6,543.8+0.4 million barrels in 2065.438+09, and increases the average daily supply growth of non-OPEC crude oil by 30,000 barrels to 2,654.38+0.3 million barrels.
On the demand side, the expected demand of OPEC crude oil in 20 19 will be lowered by130,000 barrels per day to 32.05 million barrels per day; In 20 19, the growth rate of global crude oil demand was reduced to 6.5438+0.43 million barrels per day, and the previous value was 6.5438+0.45 million barrels per day.
In 20 19, the growth rate of non-OPEC crude oil supply is expected to increase to 2130,000 barrels per day, and the previous value is 210,000 barrels per day. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has reduced the demand growth rate of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the world, and also raised the expectation of the supply growth rate.
Pay attention to API data in the early morning
API crude oil inventory data will be released at 4:30 a.m. Beijing time on Wednesday, with the previous value being reduced by 6 million barrels per day. The intensification of market supply panic has led to downward pressure on oil prices. If API data shows an increase in inventories again this week, oil prices may show a downward trend again.
In addition, according to Genscape data of American energy intelligence agency, as of the week of August 10, the crude oil inventory of WTI in Cushing crude oil delivery center in Oklahoma increased by about10.7 million barrels, which restrained the downward trend of Cushing crude oil inventory.
According to Financial Easy Software, as of August 10: 12, Beijing time, the US WTI crude oil is now reported at 67.47 USD/barrel.