This week, China Storage Network announced the fifth batch of pork storage and storage; According to the first quarter data of the Bureau of Statistics, the number of sows can be 4 1.85 million in the first quarter, down 2% from the previous month, and it has returned to the normal range. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that pigs will turn losses into profits in the third quarter and reach the breakeven point in June.
The State Council once again stressed the need to ensure the transportation of key materials and fully support the economic operation in key areas.
What is the impact of a series of policies and data on pig prices? Please see the specific analysis:
Hot spot of live pig market this week
0 1, the fifth batch of pork storage began.
China Storage Network announced that it plans to purchase the fifth batch of central reserve meat on April 22, with a reserve of 40,000 tons.
Accumulated frozen pork1980,000 tons during the year.
If the price of live pigs continues to run at a low level, the state will continue to carry out purchasing and storage work, guide local governments to pay close attention to purchasing and storage, and push the price of live pigs back to a reasonable range as soon as possible.
Comments: From the perspective of purchasing, storage and pork production, the situation of oversupply of pork in the market still exists, and collecting pigs only boosted the market.
However, if the government continues to purchase and store, the boost to the market may be enhanced, thus prolonging the running time at the bottom of the pig cycle.
In the first quarter of 2002, the stock of sows exceeded expectations, and it is expected to turn losses into profits in the third quarter.
Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that at the end of the first quarter, there were 422.53 million live pigs, a year-on-year increase of1.6%; Among them, the number of fertile sows was 4 1.85 million, a decrease of 2% from the previous month.
With the recovery of later consumption, the price of live pigs is expected to gradually rise to a reasonable range.
After the price of live pigs bottomed out in the later period, it is unlikely that there will be a sharp increase as in the period of 20 19 African swine fever.
From the futures market, the futures contract prices due in April 15, September 165438+ 10 are 8.3 yuan and 8.8 yuan per catty respectively, which to some extent reflects the market's expectation that the hog price will rise to a reasonable range in the second half of the year.
Comments: The number of fertile sows is 4 1.85 million, which is still higher than the normal 4 1 10,000.
Due to financial pressure, the production capacity of small and medium-sized farmers is obviously reduced, but there are still plans to expand production with the help of financial advantages in the scale market.
From April to September this year, 422.53 million live pigs will be listed, indicating that the pork market supply is still at a high level in the second and third quarters.
Affected by COVID-19, pork consumption was lower than expected.
In March, the national service industry production index decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, among which contact gathering industries such as accommodation and catering were greatly affected by the epidemic.
The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the market has not changed.
The expert group predicts that pig breeding is expected to turn losses into profits in the third quarter, but uncertainties still exist.
Secondary fattening, piglet replenishment and early frozen products storage will bring some pressure to the subsequent pig price increase.
It is suggested that farmers follow suit and slaughter fat pigs, and do not blindly suppress them.
03, the goods are still not shipped? The State Council punches!
The State Council Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism held a press conference on June 5438+09. Next, we will work with relevant departments to get through the blocking point.
Supervise and urge all localities to include agricultural products such as grain and oil, vegetables, fruits, meat, eggs and milk, and aquatic products. Incorporate into the scope of key support materials for normalized epidemic prevention and control, and give priority to issuing national unified passes for vehicles transporting key materials.
Liaoning high-speed toll stations all resumed traffic on April, 2022 18.
Comments: Some time ago, the State Council issued the Notice on Keeping Freight Logistics Smooth.
The Ministry of Transport also stressed that it is necessary to speed up the promotion and use of the national unified mutual recognition pass to ensure national mutual recognition and smooth traffic.
Stabilizing livestock and poultry production and ensuring supply is not a trivial matter, and good policies need to be put in place.