This year's natural disasters have reduced the output of agricultural products, but the money supply has not decreased, and inflation has spread to the whole field of people's daily necessities. Price transmission takes time, so the second half of the year is higher than the first half.
After the natural disasters in the world, many countries have raised the prices of food and agricultural products, or announced a ban on food exports.
Because the general reason for the current increase in food prices is related to global climate anomalies and disasters since last year, agricultural products, especially vegetables, have generally decreased production. In addition, careful observation shows that the increase in grain prices occurred in the context of the bumper harvest of autumn grain in the main grain producing areas, but farmers did not get a lot of benefits from it, and the profits were largely concentrated in circulation.
Price increase is a global phenomenon. If the global loose liquidity policy is not changed, the upward trend of agricultural products is likely to continue for some time, no matter who is the next successor. "At present, the United States is crazy about issuing monetary policy. As long as this policy does not change, international commodities denominated in dollars will continue to rise.
The current high point of agricultural products will continue to the summer grain market around June next year.
When the quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States is restarted, it leads to the flood of liquidity, and a large number of international funds are in urgent need of export. These funds enter the domestic futures market, which invisibly raises the price increase expectation of agricultural products. We are paying the bill for the spamming of money in America.