In the dead of night, you will wake up for a while. Futures trading is like a maze with many paths. If you don't look at the maze from a higher height and go straight in for some benefits, you will find that you may make money. After doing it for a long time, you will find that the market is becoming more and more complicated, and you have been lost in it.
In a high-risk market like the futures market, there are only winners and losers, and there are no experts. The market is changing, the essence of investment philosophy, losing small money to win big money, trend trading and risk management are eternal themes.
Futures trading is actually trading yourself and trading your personality. The so-called character determines fate. If a person does not fully understand his own advantages and disadvantages and personality characteristics in life, I think it is very difficult to do a good job in futures. Why? Because the trading methods and risk management of futures trading can still be imitated in essence, even if you learn trading methods and risk management, once you enter the futures market, you will find that the futures market is a very tempting place, and the actual actions will be very different from what you have learned, and you will get lost in the maze of futures.
Therefore, if you want to succeed in futures trading, you must know yourself and surpass yourself. The price of knowing yourself in the futures market will be high, and you can only know yourself if you lose money.
So how do you get out of the maze?
After countless failures in the futures market, we should have the confidence to continue learning, trading and thinking. A psychologist abroad mentioned the 10,000-hour law, which I think is very reasonable. He said that if any industry wants to reach the top level in the world, it needs you to spend 10 thousand hours studying and thinking. As we do futures, it takes five hours a day on average, which takes many years. Take your time and be patient.
As a speculator, how to understand the market and what kind of trading methods to adopt, I think we must first determine the goal. After you have a goal, you can also control your mentality. After the target is determined, there must be a way of thinking to judge the market value, that is, the problem of the trading system, that is, to complete the target service. The system is not omnipotent, and sometimes it does not match the market. There must be trading strategy and risk management behind the system. This is the problem of trading methods. After these elements are built, it is clear to do them step by step.
The first step: determination-medium and long term.
I think of the sentence in Wang Yangming's Dingpian, a master of mind in the Ming Dynasty, "Nothing in the world can be achieved. Although there are all kinds of skills, no one does not rely on it. " The so-called clear goal is to be determined. Short term? Midline? Trend? Shocked? Technical or fundamental? Take only one scoop from the turbulent river. Determination is the first step out of the maze of trading.
Livermore's ultimate insight is one sentence: money is waiting. I translated it into operational terms: firmly make orders according to the medium and long-term moving average.
This sentence is the supreme and infinite art of war that contains all the excellent tactics in the financial market. Since then, most of the others have been dross and vagrancy. Understanding this sentence requires extraordinary wisdom and massive actual combat. 99% of losers will never understand this sentence. No matter do any K-line cycle, confrontation with the medium and long-term moving average is a dead end.
The phrase "money is waiting" is the cornerstone of financial transactions, which lays the foundation for all financial transactions in one sentence and summarizes all the skills of making money in one sentence.
The golden rule of "money is waiting" is destined to accompany all successful traders throughout their lives. People who are confused about trading don't understand this sentence.
Step 2: Wait-direction sign
Trading is a long-term moving average waiting for you to choose. Trading is persistence, don't be discouraged by temporary failure, and consistently adhere to the principle of your own choice. Trading is crocodile hunting, waiting quietly, waiting patiently, and getting your own profits. Half-hearted people may succeed in other industries. In the cruel financial market, it is too difficult, even if you are only highly skilled.
The popularization of K-line science will only accelerate the variation of K-line science itself. It can be predicted that in the future, the K-state probability of major varieties will change rapidly from 15 to daily K-line level, and K-line fraud will increase greatly, especially the most mainstream daily K-line. The market has its own wisdom Most people will lose money after all.
It can be predicted that the increasingly mature market in the future will be the world of small K-line and large moving average, and the K-line science itself will be ruthlessly trampled by the mutated market. As the first trend indicator, the moving average will always have the status of supreme infinity in the financial market!
No matter how powerful your money is, you can change the K-line probability, you can play with the K-line probability, and even you can play with the small moving average, but the position of the medium and long-term moving average cannot be challenged, whether intentionally or unintentionally, it must be unconditionally restricted.
No matter what K-line cycle you do, only with the development of medium and long-term moving averages can you get the highest security and the highest income, which is a mathematical philosophy that no one can challenge. I don't want to explain this sentence again. As long as human greed and fear exist, this sentence will never be out of date. Stop loss only comes from the different K-line cycle you choose, but it is different.
Step 3: Loyalty system transaction
Absolute loyalty to the medium-and long-term moving average you choose is the supreme infinite tactic of specific operation. For a long time, this tactic is doomed to be unsurpassed. It is the embodiment of the trade avenue. Only a paranoid who has achieved great success can understand this passage. Wait quietly for your moving average and keep the only way to start the market. Trading is the only way to understand the market and wait for it.
In my stop-loss point of view, I express that if you can't afford to lose, you can't win.
In my view of operation, what I want to express is that if you don't have the supreme determination to be loyal to the medium-and long-term moving average you choose, it will be difficult for you to succeed.
Short-term moving averages can't carry the fluctuations you need. Choosing a moving average that is too small is as ridiculous as choosing to fall in love with a player. You can stick to the principle of medium and long-term moving average in your mind, which is the only way to start the market and the key to help you make profits continuously in the chief mate's band.
Profitability takes time and stability. Profits can't stand repeated tossing, and they can't stand repeated stop losses. For your own trading standards, you need to wait for your own life.
You have to give up to get it. Give up all the market that you can't understand and can't stand the toss, and wait for the general policy that you can understand and clearly implement.
The art of trading itself is incomplete, and perfectionists are doomed to suffer. Trading is a deformity. It's best to describe this transaction with the philosophy of "great achievements are lacking".
Compared with the short-term moving average, the fluctuation between the long-term moving average and the market price is much smaller, easier and simpler. The philosophy of giving up and getting needs to be slowly and carefully understood.
Many times, we should look down on profit. If perfection is considered, the first mate will inevitably increase the difficulty of operation. The simple road is no joke. The more complex the index, the more difficult the operation and the higher the failure probability.