Financial turmoil refers to the sharp, short-term and super-cycle deterioration of all or most financial indicators (such as short-term interest rates, monetary assets, securities, real estate, land (price), the number of commercial bankruptcies and the number of financial institutions) in a country or several countries and regions. Its characteristic is that people's expectations of the future economy are more pessimistic, the currency of the whole region has depreciated sharply, and the economic aggregate and scale have lost a lot, which has hit economic growth. It is often accompanied by a large number of business failures, rising unemployment rate, general economic depression in society, and sometimes even social unrest or national political turmoil. Financial crisis can be divided into currency crisis, debt crisis and banking crisis. In recent years, the financial crisis has increasingly presented a mixed crisis form-Lehman Brothers, a financial "giant crocodile" with a history of 150 years, finally failed in this stormy season and ended in "filing for bankruptcy", which made people reassess the "subprime mortgage crisis" on the other side of the ocean. Affected by this incident, China Bank shares fell sharply yesterday, and China Merchants Bank was among them. Today, China Merchants Bank announced that it holds Lehman Brothers bonds. Even if all bonds lose money, it will only affect the earnings per share of 0.0324 yuan/share, with little substantial impact. However, it remains to be seen whether psychologically fragile investors will treat it rationally. "Lehman Brothers is facing bankruptcy!" -The impact of this news on global stock markets can be described as immediate, but its impact may just begin to appear! After Huaan Fund Company announced yesterday that its Huaan International Allocation Fund was affected by Lehman Brothers, China Merchants Bank (600036, closing price 16.07 yuan) also announced that it was affected by Lehman Brothers today. According to the announcement, the company holds bonds issued by Lehman Brothers in the United States, amounting to $70 million. Insiders pointed out that in the face of yesterday's orderly limit of bank stocks, the release of this unfavorable news may be amplified by the market. Limited Substantial Impact Today, China Merchants Bank announced that as of the date of announcement, the company had a $70 million bond exposure issued by Lehman Brothers. Among them, the senior bond is USD 60 million and the subordinated bond is USD 65.438+million. At the same time, the announcement said that the company will assess the risks of the above bonds and draw corresponding impairment reserves according to the principle of prudence. US$ 70 million-converted into RMB, equivalent to about RMB 477 million. How much impact will this figure have on China Merchants Bank? If China Merchants Bank impairs the bonds issued by Lehman Brothers by 10%, the loss will be 47.7 million yuan. According to the total share capital of China Merchants Bank of 65.438+04.707 billion shares, the impact on earnings per share will be only 0.0032 yuan/share; If China Merchants Bank sets aside 50% bad debt reserve for US$ 70 million, the impact on earnings per share is only 0.05438 yuan+0.62 yuan. Even in the worst case, if all the bad debts of $70 million are accrued, the impact will only be 0.0324 yuan/share, which is obviously quite small compared with the earnings per share of China Merchants Bank in the middle of this year, 0.9 yuan. Therefore, national securities analysts believe that although China Merchants Bank has not made corresponding impairment provision for the bonds held by Lehman Brothers, even if this incident is the worst, the substantial impact on China Merchants Bank is quite limited. The market may overreact "the substantial impact is limited!" This is the industry's evaluation of China Merchants Bank's involvement in Lehman Brothers, but will the market treat it rationally?

Second, why does the crisis in the financial market lead to the decline of futures?

The financial crisis will directly affect the industrial economy, causing the industrial economy to decline and the market demand to decrease, so it will affect the relationship between supply and demand of commodities, cause the futures price to fall, and then affect the spot price.

3. What is the biggest reason for the financial decline?

The main reason is that American banks or financial institutions have long issued a large number of loans to individuals and institutions with only secondary credit ratings (poor repayment ability and unstable income). In addition, the income level of these individuals and institutions has gradually declined, resulting in a gradual decline in repayment ability. Over time, a large number of phenomena occurred, resulting in banks not receiving the money they should receive, which led to many difficulties. Therefore, the subprime mortgage crisis has evolved into a financial crisis. Therefore, a large number of banks and financial investment institutions closed down, and the chain reaction affected the economic decline of relevant countries in the world and the wave of bank runs of financial institutions, which then spread into a global financial crisis.

4. What are the causes of the financial crisis?

1. The financial crisis was caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. The subprime mortgage crisis refers to the shock, panic and crisis in the international financial market caused by the sharp increase in the default rate of the subprime mortgage industry in the United States in the summer of 2007 and the credit crunch. Subprime mortgage refers to loans provided by some lending institutions to borrowers with poor credit and low income.

2. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac once accounted for 70% of the subprime mortgage market in the United States. They were led by government agencies and packaged loans into securities. It is quite complicated to calculate the financial risk behind loan securitization. It is usually necessary to analyze the risks of similar loan cases in the past and calculate the principal and interest rate that investors can get. In the whole process, new market participants excessively pursue high-risk loans for profit-seeking purposes.

3. Due to the intervention of thousands of hedge funds, pension funds and other high-risk preference fund investors around the world, the original lending standards have become a dead letter in the face of high interest rates. Many small and medium-sized banks in the United States are willing to resell their mortgage claims because they don't want to wait for 20 years because of limited funds. Banks are also eager to lend money, otherwise they will be overwhelmed by interest expenses.

4. New market participants and Wall Street traders constantly encourage lending institutions to try different loan types. Many lenders don't even require subprime borrowers to provide proof of financial qualifications, including tax bills. When evaluating the value of houses, lenders also rely more on mechanical computer programs than the conclusions of appraisers, and the potential risks are deeply buried in the subprime mortgage market.

5. Causing all or most of the financial indicators of a country or several countries and regions to deteriorate sharply, temporarily and super-periodically. The credit crunch that often follows is the situation that the rapid growth of money demand is greater than the money supply. A few decades ago, the financial crisis was basically equivalent to squeezing, but now it mostly appears in the form of currency crisis. The stock market crash is sometimes a financial crisis.