Is there a "black hand" of the dollar behind the plunge in gold prices?
At present, although there are still some negative and dark aspects in the international financial market, a simplified and undisguised interpretation of it will not help us understand the real market and solve practical problems. Yesterday, an authoritative media article pointed out, "In the current situation of US debt flooding and serious overdraft of US dollar credit, the black hand to save the US dollar looms behind the sharp drop in gold prices, which is the result of the joint control of Wall Street financial giants and the Federal Reserve. Its purpose is to continue to maintain the status of the US dollar as a global hard currency and to continue the US-led global financial cycle chain. " Objectively speaking, there is a certain correlation between the strength of the dollar and the price of gold in the market operation. It is also an indisputable fact that since the outbreak of the international financial crisis, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have introduced monetary easing policies to push up the price of gold and the stock market. In addition, the bad record of Wall Street financiers is obvious to all. In the Asian financial crisis of 1997, and the subsequent financial crises in Russia and South America, Wall Street players used their right to speak and superb market operations to seize huge ill-gotten gains. However, we also see that with the rise of BRICS countries, the strength of traditional big countries in the international financial war has shrunk significantly, and the financial strength and market discourse power of emerging market countries are not what they used to be. In this context, the proposition that "there is a black hand of dollars behind the sharp drop in gold prices" seems to be suspected of misreading the current pricing mechanism of international gold and foreign exchange markets. The transaction price of gold and commodities is often determined by the futures market. What really affects the price of gold is not physical gold, but paper gold in the futures market. Futures prices usually affect market demand expectations, which will eventually be reflected in the pricing of commodities. The largest hedge fund in the United States once held 1.200 tons of gold. At the end of last year, the number of global investment gold fund companies was 3 10. These index funds holding gold have a total of thousands of tons of paper gold positions. There is a famous Paulson Fund on Wall Street, which made billions of dollars by shorting in the international financial crisis in 2008, but in the previous gold plunge, the fund lost more than 65.438 billion dollars. This shows that any institution may lose money in the financial market, and this game is fair to some extent. Some commentators believe that Wall Street financial giants and the Federal Reserve are behind the scenes. "They jointly manipulated this round of gold price crash." There are two main reasons for this view. First, "the international gold price is actually manipulated by American financial institutions. When the price of gold plummets, the United States can make investors lose money and eliminate the large amount of money they print. " In fact, the futures market is different from the stock market, and there is no value investment. The futures market is a pure "zero-sum game". In the two-way trading mechanism of gold and other futures markets, long traders always need the cooperation of corresponding short positions to complete the transaction, and the winner's income is the loser's loss, and there is no middle ground. In this money game, social wealth will not grow or disappear, and the "total score" will always be zero. Since it is a zero-sum game, who can the Fed join forces with? Which Wall Street company is willing to play the loser with real money, just to fulfill the Fed's "conspiracy"? As for "eliminating a large number of banknotes", it is even more impossible to talk about it. The second basis of the relevant argument is that "the purpose of the Fed's manipulation of gold prices is to destroy investors' confidence in gold, so as to strengthen the dollar, thereby enhancing the credit of the dollar", and finally make the US economy run normally. In fact, the foreign exchange trading market is the largest in the world, and its scale is unimaginable-the daily trading volume exceeds 4 trillion US dollars at its peak. According to the estimation of the World Gold Council, the average daily trading volume of the gold market is about 200 billion US dollars. Compared with the foreign exchange market, the global gold market is simply a "dwarf". So, how does the plunge in gold prices drive the dollar to strengthen? In addition, the foreign exchange market is the most liquid market in the world, and its market participants are highly dispersed. Therefore, it is a myth that the foreign exchange market has become the fairest market in the world, and it is difficult to manipulate the global foreign exchange market.