Through the analysis of the market trend of medicinal materials in recent 10 years, the following conclusions can be drawn:
1. In recent 10 years, the overall price trend of Chinese herbal medicine market showed an upward trend, with an average annual growth rate of 9.5% ~ 9.6%, slightly higher than the national GDP growth rate.
2. Chinese herbal medicine market will form a ups and downs cycle every 3 ~ 4 years. In the process of forming this cycle, the lowest valley is often the stage with the strongest rebound. After the market reaches the highest value, it will form a high-value stage in the second year of decline, that is, it will continue a relatively high-price period in the second year after the market appears high.
3. The market situation is obviously affected by unexpected events and the overall economic trend of the country. For example, in 2003, the market situation was relatively high, which was related to national inflation and SARS. In 2009, it was obviously affected by influenza A H 1N 1.
4. Before this wave of market appeared in 2009, there was an ultra-low point, reaching the lowest point in recent 10 years. According to the law, 2008 should be a slow rebound period, but due to the impact of the international financial crisis that year, the overall economy of the country declined, thus inhibiting the emergence of this wave of market.
5. In 2009, the market should rebound at a high level even without factors such as H1N1. According to the statistical data of recent 10 years, the reasonable rebound rate should exceed 20%.
6. In June, 2009, the price index curve reached the highest point in 10, and the trend continued to rise, which was an extraordinary surge in the market.
7.20 10 Chinese herbal medicine market should be gradually declining, but compared with other years, 20 10 still has great advantages. If there are no special circumstances, the overall market should fall into a trough in the four years from 20 1 1 to 20 12.
Unexpected circumstances played a role in fueling the situation.
In particular, the continuous spread of influenza epidemic has added many uncertainties to the Chinese herbal medicine market in a short time, because with the development of the epidemic, the demand for Chinese herbal medicine is not rigid but quite flexible. How big is the gap between supply and demand of Chinese herbal medicines caused by the epidemic? It is difficult for anyone to draw a conclusion now, because it is not known how many people will be infected with the flu. According to the data provided by Southern Institute of Pharmaceutical Economics, the sales of Chinese patent medicine enterprises nationwide increased by 43% in the last quarter compared with the same period of last year. If the number of people infected with swine flu is conservatively estimated at 30 million, more than150,000 people will be treated with traditional Chinese medicine. Not counting the preventive use of traditional Chinese medicine, the dosage of traditional Chinese medicine needs to increase by more than 300 thousand tons this year. Especially for antiviral Chinese herbal medicines, each variety will share the consumption growth of 5000 ~ 10000 tons or even higher (pay attention to the growth on the basis of the original consumption). Take forsythia as an example. This year, the output of new and old forsythia will add up to more than 5,000 tons, which is more than 50% lower than in previous years. According to the current consumption, the existing goods will not be used for five months, and if the epidemic continues to expand, the situation will be more complicated. The gap of honeysuckle, isatis root and other bulk varieties will continue to increase, and manufacturers must take measures such as limiting production to ensure that resources will not be exhausted in advance. This is a serious problem faced by Chinese traditional medicine industry, which should be paid attention to by relevant state departments and a solution should be worked out as soon as possible.
This wave of market obviously has a false high component.
After China's economy entered 2 1 century, there have been few ups and downs and excessive inflation as at the end of last century. There was a small inflation in 2003, in which the agricultural product price index only rose by 4.6%. Chinese herbal medicine is one of the raw materials to protect people's health and affect the national economy and people's livelihood. Excessive price increases will inevitably cause many negative effects. The government and the public are unwilling to accept excessive drug prices. Therefore, the possibility of the competent authorities stabilizing the market is not ruled out.
Through the analysis of the historical trend of many varieties, it can be clearly seen that some varieties have obvious false high components recently. Except for some antiviral varieties and varieties with lower prices in the early stage, these price-increasing varieties are divided into several situations: First, some large varieties have overcapacity, and consumption has not increased significantly this year, and prices have also risen with the overall market, which is suspected of fishing in troubled waters; Second, consumption has indeed increased, but excess production and old inventory are enough to offset this increase in consumption. The price increase is only to hoard or sell a good price when the market is good; The third is to invest money to monopolize the supply of small and medium-sized varieties of a Chinese herbal medicine, and then sit on the ground and start the price. Although these varieties will inevitably reduce their prices in the end, they will also push up the overall market of Chinese herbal medicines in the short term.
The increase in circulation is also one of the drivers of high prices.
In the past two years, due to the overall depression of the market, many medicinal materials were stored in the hands of real estate developers or producers. After the market picked up this year, the turnover rate of Chinese herbal medicine varieties increased significantly. The supply of goods is scattered from the place of origin to the hands of producers, market operators, enterprises and even speculators. If there is circulation, there will be output value, and if there are links, there will be costs. Here we can see a few concrete examples: First, varieties closer to traditional roasted seeds and nuts are more likely to increase in price, such as Trichosanthes kirilowii and Fangfeng in Anguo, Platycodon grandiflorum and Chrysanthemum in Bozhou, and North Zhejiang, Yuanhu and Scrophularia in Zhejiang. On the contrary, many varieties of southern medicinal materials run at low prices all the year round because there is no tradition of roasted seeds and nuts; Second, the more popular the variety, the easier it is to raise the price. Even if there is no gap between supply and demand, because the market thinks it will rise, you will buy it, and eventually the price will rise rapidly.
The rising prices of various raw materials have made the present situation worse.
Recently, the prices of coal, electricity, gas and petrochemical products are all brewing or have started to rise. Although the National Bureau of Statistics believes that the inflation expectation of the domestic economy is decreasing this year (the price index has dropped slightly in the last two quarters), the annual price index should increase by about 2%. However, the rising prices of agricultural products and other raw materials will inevitably be transmitted to downstream industries. To give a simple example, when the price of coal and electricity rises, the cost of processed products will inevitably increase; As oil prices rise, shipping costs will rise; Rising food prices will increase labor costs and so on.
Through the above analysis, the author believes that the overall market rise this year is inevitable, but at present, some varieties obviously have bubble components. With the development of the epidemic and the gradual return of the market to rationality, the varieties with supply and demand gaps do not rule out the possibility of continuing to raise prices; And those varieties that raise prices or hoard speculation will inevitably face the process of being squeezed. However, this year's market situation may accelerate the pace of adjustment of the Chinese medicine industry, promote the development of new things such as large-scale warehousing logistics and warehouse receipt trading, and also bring good opportunities for the information development of the Chinese medicine industry.