1. If the current price is 1000 USD/oz, then convert it into RMB.
1000* exchange rate 6.22/ oz 31.1035 =199.977 yuan/gram.
2000 USD/oz converted into RMB.
The exchange rate of 2000* is 6.22/ ounce 3 1. 1035=400.838 yuan/gram.
The current price of gold futures should be 1000.
The quotations of gold futures and spot gold are also complementary.
Secondly, it is about $65,438+0,000, because according to the psychology of the public, the forward price will definitely rise to 2,000, because the function of the market is to find the future price, but the price is not the future price, but the current price. In other words, the price will definitely be around the spot price. This relationship is very delicate. If you think about it from the perspective of speculation, you will probably hope to be around 2000, just like gambling. It's only fair to give you 6,543,800 heads and 6,543,800 tails when you toss a coin. If everyone rises to 2000 in the future, you can go long or short. Since everyone thinks that it can all rise to 2000, it should be around 2000, otherwise the buyer will benefit and the seller will suffer. So from the perspective of speculators. And we are used to thinking about these things from the standpoint of speculators, because stocks are used for speculation. There is a good saying: "Stock speculation has become a shareholder" and "real estate speculators have become landlords". In foreign countries, everyone will say that investing in stocks. In China, are you speculating in stocks? If we consider this kind of thing from the standpoint of speculators, it is easy to see that it is around 2000, but the correct answer is around 1000. An important reason is arbitrage, so it is very important in financial engineering that all prices are priced through no arbitrage. That is, through arbitrage, spot and futures prices will be close.
Third, arbitrage requires almost no assumptions. If you don't have much money, you can make money without taking risks. This kind of business must be done by someone Arbitrage is such an opportunity. Once this opportunity is discovered, someone will definitely do it. Then such power will overwhelm the power of speculators, making the spot price there and the futures price nearby. Now let's think about the above problems again. At present, everyone thinks that the spot futures of 1000 can rise to 2000, but with no arbitrage power, both spot and futures are around 1000, but everyone will still expect it to be around 2000. What will happen? Will it be in equilibrium? At this time, you can still be in a state of balance. If it is in equilibrium at this time, then the market can be said to be very risk-averse, so it can still be in equilibrium. The expected price is high now, but the futures and spot prices are already very low, which means that everyone is very safe. Risk aversion means that the difference between the price we buy futures and the expected price in the future is the reward of risk. The interest between futures and spot has been taken into account, and the difference between them is also a risk reward, but this difference is much smaller than the last one. Therefore, the risks of investing in futures and spot are actually similar and balanced. However, people expect 2000 and futures are 1000, which still shows that people are unwilling to take risks and hate risks. Of course, in reality, if everyone does this,
Fourth, in financial engineering, we generally don't consider risk reward, because our pricing is derivative pricing, and derivative pricing is very simple. You tell me the spot price, and I'll tell you the futures price. He will not consider the risk reward, because once the risk reward is considered, it will definitely involve the effect function, which is a very strange thing. Let's think about where our interests come from. Generally speaking, the effect of economics comes from consumption, but in China, the effect may come from wealth. Therefore, for different nationalities and countries, this influence is quite complicated, and it may also come from relative comparison and their own historical situation. There is no way to determine whether the utility function is exponential or power function, and different functions will have different effects. This pricing will be very troublesome. We don't use this method to price our financial engineering, which is also the biggest benefit of financial engineering. All pricing has nothing to do with utility. So when we use it to calculate pricing, it is best not to use utility function. So economics makes sense, but the conclusions drawn from economics are often difficult to use directly because it is directional. For example, if your income increases, your utility will also increase, but the amount of increase depends on the situation and the state is completely different. Fortunately, we are studying financial engineering, using the method of no arbitrage, which is still a very practical science. All our conclusions can be proved by experiments.
So this stage tells us that as long as we know the term and the interest rate, we can only determine the forward price, so it has nothing to do with the expected rise and fall. Of course, in reality, if it will rise in the future, it will generally be slightly higher than F.
If you think it will fall, it will be lower, but not too much.