Although the probability of ups and downs is 50%, we all add our own "judgment" when placing an order, and the probability will shift accordingly. For most people, this kind of "judgment" is of course a counterproductive change. No matter what means "judgment" is used, it includes the market's response to "judgment" and makes "judgment" shift from the opposite direction of the market. The question is, why must it change in the opposite direction? ! Because: everyone's starting point for futures trading is an unforgettable desire to make money (yes). The market formed by such a group of people contains too many meanings, but it generally means to make money from "others", because futures can only be earned when you lose money. Therefore, the "appearance" of the market and your feelings are reflected in your "judgment", which has the opposite effect. Secondly, as I said before, this is a "changing" market, and our means always tend to be linear or deterministic. Then, how can we solve the "nonlinear" problem with "linear" thinking? So, the mistake happened from the beginning. In this way, the original 50% probability becomes very low. Sina statement: the content of this article is purely the author's personal opinion, which is for investors' reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.