The stock index is rising steadily, and it is time to choose the direction to attack
Today, the two cities reappeared the pattern of general rise. On Tuesday, the stock index shrank and consolidated. Stimulated by the start of finance and real estate, the stock index has gone out of three consecutive days. Yang trend. The overall trend of the market today is stable, and the same unilateral upward trend as yesterday means that the opinions of both bulls and bears have been reached in the short term. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 31 points and closed at 2928 points, firmly holding the key psychological point of 2900. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 108 points and closed at 8249 points. Compared with the Shanghai market, it was stronger and the number of losses was smaller. After three days of rising prices, today's trading volume is basically the same as yesterday, which shows that although the market has the possibility of choosing an upward direction driven by financial real estate, many people still choose to wait and see at this time. This is why trading volume has been unable to increase.
Today, the heavyweight stocks are somewhat differentiated, but the trends are relatively stable, which provides a hotbed for the market to do long momentum. Judging from the "sector monitoring" function of the trader software, except for the automobile and 3G sectors, which chose to adjust at this time due to excessive early growth, the other sectors have performed relatively well. Sectors such as machinery, engineering and construction, finance, and real estate, which account for a relatively large proportion of the index, have been trending steadily, while sectors such as foreign trade, nonferrous metals, chemicals, textiles, scarce resources, energy conservation and environmental protection were relatively stagflation in the early stage, but at this time they took advantage of the rebound of the market and performed bravely.
2008 is getting closer and closer, and the Olympics section should attract our attention. There will definitely be some hype for the Olympics sector in 2007. We have observed some stocks that are worth participating in. China Sports Industry, China World Trade Center, Beijing Urban Construction, CITIC Guoan, China Youth Travel Service, Beijing Bus, etc.
Dr. John Praveen, chief strategist at Prudential, believes that the decline in global stock markets in February was a healthy, belated adjustment, and is still optimistic about the stock market this year. They expect that the stock market will soon recover from the "China correction" and continue its steady rise, which is mainly based on the following factors: stable global growth, low oil prices, benign inflation, stable interest rates, and attractive valuations .
As for the early market adjustment, their view is that the market overreacted to concerns about China’s policies to regulate the stock market, misunderstood Greenspan, and exaggerated the US mortgage problem. Macroeconomics, valuations and earnings conditions remain optimistic, and they continue to maintain their optimistic view on the stock market. They believe that this adjustment consolidates the basis for further market rise and presents a good buying opportunity.
Fundamentals still support the stock market. Global growth remains, oil prices are low, and interest rates are stable. Stock valuations remain attractive, and a good macro backdrop enables the market to obtain better PE. Earnings growth will slow down, especially in the United States, but this impact will be offset by PE expansion.
Valuation remains attractive due to the decline in PE in 2006. Current valuations for most stocks remain attractive, even though some markets were already very profitable in 2006. Since the beginning of the year, China's stock market had risen 33% before this adjustment. The PE in most developing countries and emerging markets is still lower than the level in January 2006. In fact, PE has declined over the past few years as earnings growth outpaced stock price growth.
Due to interest rate hikes, rising oil prices and other macro uncertainties, the decline in PE is understandable. Stocks appear cheaper relative to bonds, backed by high yields.
Emerging market valuations. They will increase their exposure to emerging markets due to attractive valuations and optimistic profit expectations. And some markets have become expensive after experiencing strong gains in 2006. Emerging markets have a discount relative to developed markets. Furthermore, the return rate of emerging market stock markets (16.2%) is higher than the return rate of developed countries (15.8%).
The current relatively low PE level provides room for growth in 2007. This is based on continued global growth, low oil prices, acceptable inflation rates, stable interest rates, and attractive valuations that will lead to the expansion of PE.
Regarding the current market shocks, Chen Hong from HFT Select Fund calmly said that the first thing to determine is the long-term trend. Because major determinants such as economic growth, improved performance of listed companies, RMB appreciation, and capital liquidity have not fundamentally changed, we must firmly believe that the long-term bull market pattern of China's securities market for three to five years has not fundamentally changed, and shocks are just the result of rising market prices. A form. The market will always adjust, and the debate about when and how the market will adjust will run through the development of the market. As an institutional investor, a more rational approach is to focus on the mid- to long-term rather than getting involved in the debate about whether to adjust or not.
In addition, it should also be noted that the unilateral upward market pattern in 2006 may be gone forever in 2007, and will be replaced by more market fluctuations. At the same time, investment hot spots The investment themes are diverse, such as finance, real estate, transportation, etc. under the theme of RMB appreciation; the industry boom driven by the deepening of consumption upgrades, including finance, tourism, media, communications, etc.; industries that are in line with the national industrial policy guidance, including major technologies Equipment industry, environmental protection, new energy, etc.; transportation, tourism, communications, infrastructure, security, environmental protection, sports and other sectors driven by the Olympic economy; large-cap index stocks preparing for stock index futures, securities lending business, and the concept of mergers and acquisitions, etc.
Back to the market. Let’s analyze what the three consecutive positives from Tuesday to Thursday mean. The trend of one yang and one yin after the year was finally broken, but the stock index's three consecutive yangs made me even more worried. Of course, if the third positive line can bring some volume and the volume can approach 100 billion, then we don't need to analyze so much. The problem is that the current volume is insufficient, which shows that the market's enthusiasm for long has not been fully aroused. Does the three positive lines mean that the rebound is about to end? We know that there are a large number of locked-up chips piled up near 3,000 points. It is estimated that there are at least 500 billion, so every time the stock index goes up, the pressure will be greater; on the other hand, there is an old saying in China, there are only three troubles. I have tried to hit 3,000 points twice but failed. The third time is the most critical and difficult. However, we see that the two core sectors of finance and real estate are starting at this time, especially the elephant ICBC. If ICBC can stand on the key price of 5 yuan, then perhaps this boss will lead the financial sector and lead the market to 3,000 again. Click to initiate impact.
Tomorrow's trend is very critical. If the market can drive the volume up, then we can completely hold shares; but if the market goes down tomorrow, then I am afraid there will be greater shocks in the market outlook. Anyway, this is the critical stage of choosing a direction. If you don't succeed, you will be successful. If the market cannot determine the upward trend, then the downward momentum will be released in a large scale. Therefore, it is recommended that everyone control their positions and not blindly fill them up.
Today is March 8, International Women’s Day.
Here in June Hibernation wishes all female friends a happy holiday!