1. The contract will be delivered soon.
2. The monthly position of delivery is still huge.
There is too much difference between the price and the spot.
If these conditions are met, there may be a forced liquidation event, because it has not happened in recent years, and I can only find you a few historical examples.
1. The most famous typical forced position-327 national debt.
Treasury bond futures were first launched by Shanghai Stock Exchange on 19921February 28th. It is only open to securities companies for self-management and then open to the public. 1995 peaked. In its heyday, there were two risk events, the "314,327" treasury bond futures event, the most striking of which was the "327" event, and the parties concerned are still in custody.
With the news of1February 23, 995 that the "327" national debt was discounted and the news of new bond issuance by the Ministry of Finance was made public, the national debt futures market made an upward breakthrough. After the liquidation of the 327 contract failed, the main short sellers of the SSE deliberately violated the rules and started a large number of overdraft transactions at 16: 22, depressing the price to 147? 50 yuan closed, 327 contract plunged 3? 8 yuan, the bulls opened positions on the same day. Afterwards, the relevant authorities announced that the transaction was invalid during this period, and Guan Jinsheng, who deliberately violated the rules, was arrested and imprisoned. The serious overdraft transaction of treasury bonds futures is the most extreme manifestation of illegal manipulation in the futures market, and it is a fool of the whole market, which is not difficult for all parties in the market to tolerate, and the relevant personnel have paid a heavy price for it. There are two main objective reasons for the 327 incident:
First of all, the deposit system is widely used. The margin rate charged by treasury bonds futures is only 1%. The low margin encourages the speculative atmosphere, making it difficult to maintain the daily debt-free system, and the market settlement risk suddenly increases.
Second, the national debt market does not have the conditions to develop futures varieties, and the degree of marketization is not enough. Without interest rate marketization, futures will become a game of guessing subsidy rate, and price discovery hedging is out of the question. The 327 incident directly triggered the nerves of regulators, and the whole market set off the wind of strengthening risk management, and various institutional measures were introduced one after another.
2. A special short selling event-palm oil short selling.
Historically, most risk events in China occurred in the form of short positions. The tight spot supply and huge speculative capital often lead to the formation of short positions, but short positions often appear in the form of failure. The reason is that China is a country in transition from a planned economy to a market economy, and the state often intervenes in prices by other means, which makes bears vulnerable to policy risks. The palm oil incident in 1995 occurred in the form of empty forced positions, and the main reasons for this forced position are of course sufficient spot supply and too little speculative capital.
1In March, 1995, a securities company began to confront a powerful importer on the M506 contract. The fundamental conditions at that time were very unfavorable to bulls, not to mention the decline of palm oil market at home and abroad. Domestic futures supervision also focuses on curbing inflation and excessive speculation. Faced with policy risks and unfavorable spot market, there is only one way for bulls to close their positions and leave. Spot arbitrage advantage and speculative suppression make it more difficult for bulls to leave the market. The market price quickly dropped from 9300 yuan/ton to 7200 yuan/ton by means of continuous decline and expanding the down limit. Palm oil 506 is a typical example of air pressure.
There are many reasons for this situation, including fundamentals and a single market subject structure. It is difficult for big speculators to bear the risk of falling spot market prices. Contrarian manipulation increased the risk accumulation, making it impossible for him to get away with it. A purely imported product is not conducive to the normal operation of the futures market.
3. Forcing the classic "Tianjin Red".
Tianjin Hongyu/KLOC-0 was listed on Tianjin Stock Exchange in September, 1994. There was a forced liquidation of the 507 contract. At that time, the price dropped to about 3800 yuan/ton, and the bulls planned a round of forced liquidation, on the one hand, they bought a lot of cash, on the other hand, they bought a lot of futures. 1In mid-May, 1995, the turnover and positions of 507 contracts were significantly enlarged. At the beginning of June, bulls pushed up and there were two daily limit boards, and the price rose to 5 15 1 yuan.
The "Tianjin Red 507 Incident" is typical in several aspects. First, the forced liquidation completely conforms to the definition of forced liquidation in the international market. The definition of forced liquidation in the international market is that when there is less deliverable spot, the main force of the market controls the spot and buys in large quantities in the futures market, so as to achieve the purpose of manipulating futures for profiteering. This kind of forced position holding is illegal in the international market. The forced liquidation method of Tianlv adzuki bean is the same as that in the international market, and Tianlv adzuki bean belongs to a small variety, and forced liquidation is easy to happen. Second, the price change caused by forced opening of positions is very obvious. Without considering the influence of fundamentals, there are two daily limit boards, which show the asymmetry of time and space. People call this forced position a hard forced position. Or because of the serious negative performance of this feature, the exchange took tough measures to stop it, resulting in changes in the behavioral characteristics of subsequent forced liquidation. The subsequent forcing is relatively mild, and the time and space that are not in a hurry are as symmetrical as possible. People call it soft forcing. Recently, Hujiao 0407 incident was regarded as a soft forced liquidation in the market, but because there was no continuous ups and downs, the relevant parties denied the nature of its forced liquidation. However, it should be pointed out that whether it is hard or soft, its essence is the same, and it is an act of manipulating the market, distorting prices and profiteering, which is characterized by meeting the definition of forced positions in the international market.
The characteristics of small variety and imperfect delivery trading system make the events of adzuki bean forcing positions happen one after another. Suzhou Commodity Exchange launched adzuki bean futures on 1 June, 19951day. The spot market is depressed and the delivery standard is too low, which leads to a new low in the futures market. However, futures rose sharply when the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that it was forbidden to deliver adulterated old beans and new beans, and announced that the actual inventory was small. Taking the 9602 contract as an example, the futures in1February rose from 3690 yuan/ton to 5325 yuan/ton, and many short hedgers suffered short positions. 1996 1 month, futures reversed under the intervention of China Securities Regulatory Commission, which requested to reduce positions and not open new positions, and under the action of the compulsory liquidation policy of the Soviet Stock Exchange. On March 8th, China Securities Regulatory Commission stopped the trading of red bean futures contracts on the Soviet Stock Exchange. Suzhou adzuki bean incident transferred the inventory to Tianjin. At this time, the maximum delivery quantity stipulated by Tianlian is 60,000 tons. The oversold futures price and the limited delivery policy have created conditions for another round of short-selling market. 1In the first quarter of 1996, the Tianjin Hongdou 9609 incident occurred and was immediately investigated by the CSRC.
4. The short-sightedness of the exchange aggravated the incident-the soybean meal incident.
Guanglianshe can be regarded as a typical risk event of that year. Risk events occur one after another in futures products, as well as in exchanges. This phenomenon is not unique to guanglian. It shows that the behavior of forcing positions to lead to risk events has become a common practice, and the concept of rational market investment has not been formed at all. At the same time, it also shows that many exchanges have become accustomed to this phenomenon or adopted a default attitude. Futures are operated by forcibly opening positions. Without forced liquidation, there will be no trading volume, no price fluctuation and no market without forced liquidation. This was the prevailing view at that time. This view has influenced some policy measures adopted by the exchange.
Soybean meal futures were listed on Guanglian Stock Exchange from1August 2, 995 to1August 998. In the past three years, soybean meal futures have been forced to close positions three times. If it weren't for the rectification of China futures, forced liquidation would still happen.
1995 1 1 month's "Jin Chuang incident" has not fundamentally changed people's thinking, investors' rational beliefs have not changed, and exchanges' proactive practices in the market have not changed, which directly contributed to the emergence of soybean meal variety risk events. The "Jinchuang incident" suspended the indica rice futures of Guanglian, but the deposited funds further activated the soybean meal futures and strengthened several forced liquidation of soybean meal futures. From the end of 1995 10 to the beginning of10/month, a round of forced positions was brewing on the contract of soybean meal 960 1 of Guanglian Institute. In the price range of 2350-2450 yuan/ton, the transaction was active and the position was expanding. Then the price rises, and the difference between spot and soybean meal is 500 yuan/ton. Coupled with some of the original short positions, the price was pushed up to 3600 yuan/ton, and the high price entered the delivery.
960 1 Forcing a large amount of cash to enter the market for delivery. In order not to let the inventory affect the subsequent contracts, Guanglian revised the delivery standard and announced the new warehouse receipt regulations, which eventually forced the 9607 and 9608 contracts to enter the market.
1June, 1996, only three days before the delivery month of the 9607 contract, and the long-term negotiation price was raised to more than 3,600 yuan/ton. Speculative shorts and hedging shorts were cut by bulls because of their storage capacity, and the price was pushed up again. On the last trading day, the contract price was 4465 yuan/ton. At that time, there were more than 10,000 tons of 10, but only 30,000 tons were delivered. Artificially restricting delivery has become an important means of forced liquidation, and the exchange's policy changes and poor management are also responsible. 9708 contract, so do it again. However, in the delivery month, especially when entering the delivery month, that is, August 5, the exchange restrained its forced price reduction to eliminate speculative confrontation.
Guanglian's practice of living for the life market has laid a hidden danger for the risk of forced liquidation. This practice also exists in other exchanges. Dozens of exchanges have formed a vicious competition situation, which makes them put the initiative of the market first, and even if there are problems, they will find another way to solve them. This lack of foresight makes exchanges play the role of fire brigade in most cases, and the imperfect trading delivery system makes them become some kind of igniter. At that time, the limited delivery system was adopted at will, probably because people came up with a way to activate the market by forcibly closing positions. On the other hand, people do not pay attention to the importance of delivery and the role of futures hedgers. Under this understanding, people can see that the exchange has not prevented the bulls from crowding out the delivery warehouse. Compared with the events in natural rubber futures in recent two years, people really need to improve the method of how to activate the market, otherwise it will be difficult to find the root cause of restraining or eliminating risk events.
5. Fundamental cooperation-even corn.
From a fundamental point of view, there is nothing to criticize about the rise of 1995 corn C5 1 1 contract, but the market environment at that time was very unfavorable to the rise of corn futures. The closure of other grain futures makes a large number of speculative funds gather in the corn market, further strengthening the expectation of market rise and intensifying the tension in the spot market. An obvious sign is that while the spot supply is constantly tight, the futures inventory is increasing. 1May, 199515th, C5 1 1 contract hit a sky-high price of 21/4 yuan/ton, which was higher than the spot price of 600 yuan/ton at that time.
The rising price of corn futures and the shortage of spot supply in various places have attracted the attention of relevant parties. 1 May, 1995 13, the State Council decided to transport110,000 tons of corn from the northeast to stabilize the price. In addition, the state has taken a series of other measures to regulate the futures market, and the rise of corn in Dalian has been restrained. Later, the government imported a large amount of corn from the United States, and the spot price of corn fell sharply, which reversed the rise of the corn futures market.
Throughout the contract price change process of maize C5 1 1, every fluctuation reflects the fundamental change. However, under the specific background of strong speculative atmosphere, people's fragile psychological endurance and some management measures are not in place, even varieties with price discovery significance can not be spared from risk events. As one of the important characteristics of risk events, it is not whether it rises or falls, but that its expectation has excessive components, which leads to policy risk and transaction settlement risk. The corn C5 1 1 event tells people the universality and complexity of risk events in that era from another side.
6. Rubber is a typical example of the invincible position of bulls.
1997 The financial crisis in Southeast Asia triggered the rubber bear market in the following years. This year, the international price was high and low, and Hainan Shangzhong was brewing a round of price shorting. In the rubber market of China Commercial College, speculators in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces confronted spot hedgers in Hainan and Yunnan. Taking the R0708 contract as an example, the two parties argued endlessly about11200-1400 yuan ton, and the position increased to more than 200,000 lots, which went up in July and the price rose to 65,438 at the end of July. At this time, the settlement risks of many members appeared, and the board of directors of the exchange presided over the discussion on R708 to find a solution. Finally, on July 30, China Merchants announced that it would unilaterally raise the buyer's deposit from now on, and prohibit the R708 contract from opening new positions (except for those who have not yet opened positions for hedging physical delivery). This is obviously a policy to curb bulls, but in order to achieve a balance, the Exchange issued a document on the same day to suspend the storage of natural rubber in Jinlong and Jin Huan warehouses belonging to the Agricultural Reclamation. Under the influence of temporary policies, R708.
This round of short-selling market failed with the intervention of the exchange, and the long contract closed heavily. However, the short seller failed to preserve his spot value because of the other party's breach of contract, and eventually became the undertaker of the risk of price decline. Many investment institutions and futures brokerage companies have been punished for market manipulation and poor risk control. Pushing against the trend left a shocking impression on people, so that people later sought another way to solve the risk problem caused by pushing against the trend.
Let's leave these for a while. There are some other events. If you are interested, you can refer to the book Classic Cases of Futures Market.