In the international market, the US stock market has a close relationship with the US dollar exchange rate. Generally speaking, there is such a relationship between the two: under normal circumstances, that is, the US economy improves and the profits of American companies rise, which promotes the recovery of the US stock market and is conducive to the exchange rate of the US dollar.
Yang; On the contrary, it will put pressure on the exchange rate of the US dollar and even cause a decline.
From the impact of recent stock market fluctuations on the foreign exchange market, we can find that:
(1) After the "9. 1 1" incident in the United States, the relationship between the US stock market and the US dollar exchange rate began to appear closer. After the "September 1 1" incident, American officials adopted active monetary and fiscal policies, which made the American economy quickly out of the trough, especially since June this year. In the case of economic recovery, the US stock market rebounded sharply. After the "September 1 1" incident last year, the Dow Jones index fell to 8063.50 on September 2 1, the Nasdaq index fell to 1387.06 that day, and the Dow Jones index rose to107 this year. The rise of the US stock market also led to the rise of the US dollar exchange rate. The dollar index rose from11.42 to 120.5 1 on October 28th this year, with an increase of over 8%.
(2) In mid-February, some corporate account problems in the United States, such as IBM, Enron and Morgan Group, caused the US stock market to fall, and the US dollar exchange rate fell below its index 1 18.
In addition, by observing the short-term fluctuations of the US stock market, we can also understand the trend of some US dollar exchange rates: under the current circumstances, if the Dow Jones index stands above the 10000 mark, the decline of the US dollar exchange rate will not be great; If the Nasdaq index does not reach 2000 points, the exchange rate of the US dollar will not break through its previous index high of 120+0 points.
However, there are some particularities between the US stock market and the US dollar exchange rate: in most cases, the US stock market rises and the US dollar exchange rate basically rises simultaneously; However, when the US stock market falls, the US dollar exchange rate table will be different now, that is, when the US stock market falls, the US dollar exchange rate will not fall completely.
So how do you judge this? There is an observation here: when the US stock market falls, if the market funds flow to the US bond market and the funds do not leave the US capital market, the impact on the US dollar exchange rate will be limited; If market funds do not flow to the US bond market, but withdraw from the US capital market, it will cause the exchange rate of the US dollar to fall.
(3) Gross domestic product
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total value of various final products and services produced by a country in a certain period, which depends on the market price. U.S. GDP is published by the U.S. Department of Commerce, and quarterly GDP data is generally published. And a quarter GD.
P data is divided into published initial value, revised value and final value. For example, on the evening of March 28th, Beijing time, the final value of GDP in the fourth quarter of last year will be announced. In addition, GDP has been negative for two consecutive quarters, indicating that the US economy has entered a recession. However, the US economy did not experience recession last year, mainly because GDP increased again in the fourth quarter after negative growth in the third quarter of last year.
In the foreign exchange market, GDP has risen sharply, and the exchange rate of the US dollar has also risen accordingly. When GDP falls, the exchange rate of the dollar may fall. For example, the GDP announced by the United States in the third quarter of last year was-1.3%, which comprehensively reflected that the US dollar exchange rate index dropped from 12 1 to1.42, and the US dollar depreciated by about 10%. When the United States announced that the initial GDP in the fourth quarter of last year increased by 0.2%, the US dollar index rose above 120 again. See from this? The quality of American GDP data will have a direct impact on the exchange rate of the US dollar.
(D) the impact of market capital flows on the US dollar exchange rate
In order to seek a certain economic purpose, funds will be frequently transferred between various markets, but the ultimate goal of capital flow is to seek profits. The higher the profit, the more money there will be. This also has a great impact on the exchange rate of the US dollar. In addition to the capital flow between the US bond market and the stock market just mentioned, the following capital flows will also affect the US dollar exchange rate:
1. Trade capital flows. For example, if American enterprises need to import or export a batch of goods, they will correspondingly increase their demand for US dollars or decrease their demand for US dollars, thus causing the exchange rate of US dollars to rise and fall. 2. The flow of safe-haven funds. As the US dollar is the world currency, when a country or region is politically unstable, the market demand for the US dollar exchange rate will increase, leading to the flow of funds to the US dollar. For example, when the economic crisis broke out in Argentina in June, 5438+ 10, the exchange rate of the US dollar performed well. 3. The flow of speculative funds. For example, at the beginning of March this year, USD/JPY plummeted to 1 USD/JPY 126.36, indicating that it was caused by speculative forces.
(v) The impact of US economic data on the US dollar exchange rate.
In addition to the aforementioned US GDP, other major US economic data also have an impact on the US dollar exchange rate.
1. Unemployment rate
Unemployment rate refers to the ratio of the unemployed population to the total labor force. The rising unemployment rate indicates that the economy is blocked; The drop in unemployment rate indicates economic prosperity.
With the rising unemployment rate, American officials often resort to deflation and lower bank interest rates to stimulate the economy, which may lead to the fall of the US dollar exchange rate.
After the "September 1 1" incident in the United States, the unemployment rate in the United States continued to rise in September and June, which led to the correction of the US dollar exchange rate, which comprehensively reflected that the US dollar exchange rate index dropped from 1 16 to1/Kloc-0.
2. Inventory data
These data are mainly important indicators reflecting the economic activities of the United States, especially in late February this year, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that the quality of the inventory data of the American economy will be the key.
American inventory data mainly include: commercial inventory, wholesale inventory and retail inventory. Generally speaking, the more these data fall, the better the economic operation, and the easier it is for the US dollar exchange rate to rise. On the contrary, it puts pressure on the exchange rate of the US dollar.
For example, the US inventory in June 65438+ 10 announced in mid-March this year increased by 0.2% compared with that in February last year. The rise of this data shows that the slow recovery of the US economy has put pressure on the US dollar exchange rate, which is blocked by its index 1 18.
3. Retail
This data reflects the social consumption and general economic activities in the United States. For the American economy, where consumption accounts for an important proportion of GDP, higher retail sales indicate that social consumption is sufficient and economic development potential is great, thus having a positive effect on the exchange rate of the US dollar.
4. Trade deficit
The change of American trade balance is an important factor affecting the exchange rate of the US dollar. Under normal circumstances, the increase of trade surplus will promote the increase of US dollar demand and support the rise of US dollar exchange rate, while the emergence and expansion of trade deficit will cause downward pressure on US dollar exchange rate.
For example, in March 19, it was announced that the trade deficit of the United States in June this year reached $28.52 billion, which was higher than that of $247. 1 billion in February last year. This has had an impact on the US dollar exchange rate, which comprehensively reflects the US dollar exchange rate index-the US dollar index fell from 1 18 to 65438+.
In addition, American industrial production, American consumer confidence index, industrial orders, durable goods orders and other economic data have a certain impact on the US dollar exchange rate.