Recently, domestic cotton prices have fluctuated greatly, especially Zheng Mian futures prices have fallen sharply for two consecutive trading days. Among them, the main contract price 1409 fell last Friday (February 28).
In view of the plunge in cotton prices, there are different opinions in the market, and various speculations and rumors continue. In fact, after the release of the No.1 Document of the Central Committee on June 65438+1October 65438+September, the pattern of the cotton market is bound to undergo major changes, and the current sharp fluctuation of cotton prices is only a response to this. Document No.1 of the Central Committee proposed to start the cotton target price subsidy (hereinafter referred to as direct subsidy) pilot in Xinjiang this year.
Up to now, 20 13 cotton purchasing and storage has entered the final stage, and the supporting role of favorable policies on cotton prices has weakened. At the same time, the market began to pay attention to the key issues such as how to implement the cotton direct subsidy policy, and began to focus on the analysis of what changes will occur in the market price during the process of cotton destocking. In addition, the market is still actively discussing whether the cotton price will overreact during the transition from a policy market to a market market and the recovery of the market mechanism in China.
It is inevitable that cotton prices will fall. Although the number of warehouse receipts in Zheng Mian futures market is small, futures prices often reflect the development trend of future prices. Zhou Dalong, assistant general manager of Zheng Lu Futures Shandong Zibo Sales Department, introduced that he and his colleagues had just completed the market research on the imported cotton market in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, the cotton inventory in Shandong and the production and product sales of textile enterprises. According to their understanding, this year the government will implement the direct subsidy policy in Xinjiang, the largest cotton-producing area in China, which means that the national reserve cotton purchase policy will soon complete its historical mission, and the policy premium of domestic cotton prices will no longer exist. Many textile and garment enterprises expect cotton prices to fall. The huge national reserve inventory will lead to a long period of destocking in the domestic cotton market, and in this process, cotton prices will always be suppressed. At the same time, the reaction of purchasing and storage policy adjustment will be fully manifested, and the possibility of excessive decline in cotton prices will not be ruled out.