(I) Status of zinc resources in the world
According to the US Geological Survey, by the end of 2009, the world's zinc reserves were 200 million tons, an increase of 20 million tons over the previous year. The main zinc reserves are distributed in China, Australia, Peru, Kazakhstan, the United States, Mexico, India, Canada and Ireland, accounting for 69% of the world's total reserves. Among them, Australia's zinc reserves decreased by 50%, while Canada, Kazakhstan, Mexico and Peru increased by 3 million tons, 3 million tons, 7 million tons and 6.5438+0 million tons respectively (Table 654.38+0; Figure 1).
Figure 1 world zinc reserve ratio
Table1Distribution unit of world zinc resources reserves in 2009: 10,000 tons.
Source: Abstract of Mineral Commodities, 20 10.
Note: The data of China comes from the US Geological Survey, and the domestic statistical zinc reserves in China are 654.38+09.279 million tons, which are different (other tables are similar).
Fig. 2 Proportion of basic zinc reserves in China
(2) Zinc resources in China
By the end of 2009, there were 1728 zinc mining areas in China, an increase of 137 compared with 2008. Zinc reserves, basic reserves and proven resource reserves are 6.5438+09279 million tons, 38.385 million tons and 6.5438+006953 million tons respectively. Compared with 2008, reserves and basic reserves decreased by 265,438+0.96% and 65,438+065,438+0.55% respectively. The discovered resource reserves increased by 2.83%, including 4.897 million tons of exploration, and the provinces (regions) with greater growth were Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Qinghai, Jiangxi and Xinjiang. Zinc resources in China are mainly distributed in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Guangdong, Hunan, Qinghai, Guangxi, Xinjiang, Hebei and Sichuan, accounting for 9 1% of the total national reserves, while other provinces (regions) have less reserves (Table 2; Figure 2).
Table 2 Distribution unit of zinc resources and reserves in China in 2009: 10,000 tons (zinc)
Note: The data in this table are domestic statistics, and the zinc reserves in China calculated by the US Bureau of Investigation are 33 million tons (similar to other tables).
Second, the production situation at home and abroad
(A) the world zinc production situation
1. zinc ore
In 2009, the world zinc mine output was113.36 million tons, down 3.6% from 2008. The main zinc producers are China, Peru, Australia, the United States, Canada, India, Mexico, Bolivia, Kazakhstan and Ireland, accounting for 86.0% of the world's total output. Among them, the output of China, Peru and Australia exceeded 6,543,800 tons (Table 3).
Table 3 World zinc mine (metal quantity) output in 2003-2009
Source: World Statistical Yearbook of Metals, 2008 ~ 20 10.
2. Zinc ingot
In 2009, the world zinc ingot output changed the growth trend since 2000 and began to decrease. The annual output of zinc ingots decreased by 2. 15% compared with 2008, reaching114.97 million tons. The output of each continent is 2.095 million tons in Europe, 279,000 tons in Africa, 6.854 million tons in Asia, 0/.74 million tons in America and 525,000 tons in Oceania (Australia). Among them, the output of America and Africa decreased, while the output of other continents increased over the previous year. The main zinc ingot producers are China, Canada, South Korea, India, Japan, Australia, Spain, Kazakhstan, Mexico and Finland, accounting for 76.8% of the world's total output. The annual output of Canada, South Korea, Japan and Kazakhstan decreased by more than 10% compared with 2008. India's annual output growth is the highest among major zinc ingot producers, accounting for 12.8% (Table 4).
Table 4 World Zinc Ingot Output in 2005-2009
Source: World Statistical Yearbook of Metals, 2008 ~ 20 10.
(II) Zinc production situation in China
China is a big producer of zinc concentrate and refined zinc, and the output of zinc concentrate and refined zinc still ranks first in the world in 2009. Since 1990, the output of zinc concentrate and refined zinc in China has increased steadily. Since 1993, the output of refined zinc has exceeded that of zinc concentrate (Figure 3). In 2009, the output of zinc concentrate (zinc content) in China was 3.092 million tons, 2.0% less than that in 2008. The output of refined zinc was 4.357 million tons, an increase of 65.438 0.3% compared with 2008 (calculated according to domestic statistics).
Fig. 3 1990-2009 Changes in the output and consumption of zinc concentrate and refined zinc in China.
In 2009, the main zinc-producing provinces (regions) were Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Hunan, Sichuan, Shaanxi, Guangdong, Guangxi and Gansu. Among several major producing provinces (regions), the output of Yunnan, Guangxi and Gansu decreased significantly compared with the previous year, all exceeding 10%, and the output of Gansu decreased by as much as 23.5%. The output of other provinces (regions) has increased, and Sichuan Province has the fastest growth, with an increase of 43.2% (Table 5).
Table 5 Production of Zinc Mine in China from 2005 to 2009 (metal quantity)
Source: Statistical Compilation of Nonferrous Metals Industry from 2003 to 2007; Statistics of Nonferrous Metals, 2009 (1); Statistics of non-ferrous metals, 20 10( 1)
In 2009, the output of refined zinc in China increased steadily. The provinces (regions) with annual output exceeding 654.38+10,000 tons are Hunan, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Guangxi, Liaoning, Henan, Guangdong, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Gansu and Qinghai, accounting for 96.8% of the national refined zinc output. Among these provinces (regions), except Liaoning and Gansu provinces, the output of other provinces (regions) has increased, and the growth rates of Henan, Sichuan, Qinghai, Guangxi and Hunan provinces (regions) have all exceeded 10%, among which the growth rates of Henan and Sichuan provinces are as high as 52.6% and 45.1respectively.
Table 6 Production of refined zinc in China from 2005 to 2009
Source: Statistical Compilation of Nonferrous Metals Industry from 2003 to 2007; Statistics of Nonferrous Metals, 2009 (1); Statistics of non-ferrous metals, 20 10( 1)
Third, the domestic and international consumption situation
(A) the world zinc consumption situation
1. Changes in zinc consumption
In 2009, the global consumption of zinc ingots decreased by 2.9% compared with the previous year, reaching112.45 million tons. Countries with annual consumption exceeding 200,000 tons include China, the United States, India, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Belgium, Brazil, France, Italy and Spain. Among these major consuming countries, except for China and India, the consumption increased by 65,438+07.9% and 265,438+0.1%respectively over the previous year, the consumption of other countries has decreased to varying degrees, among which, German, Japanese, Italian and Spanish decreased by more than 20% (Table 7).
Table 7 World consumption structure of zinc ingots in 2005-2009
Source: World Statistical Yearbook of Metals, 20 10.
2.2009 world refined zinc consumption structure
Zinc is an important raw material of nonferrous metals, which has good calendaring, wear resistance, corrosion resistance, thermal conductivity and electrical conductivity, and is easy to process, second only to copper and aluminum in the consumption of nonferrous metals. According to the statistics of the international lead-zinc research group, in 2009, 50% of the global refined zinc consumption was used to produce galvanized sheet, and refined zinc used to produce zinc alloy, brass and bronze each accounted for 17%, zinc used to produce zinc products and chemical products each accounted for 6%, and another 4% was used in other industries. Compared with 2008, the consumption structure has not changed (Figure 4).
Figure 4 Final consumption structure of refined zinc in the world in 2009
(B) the consumption of zinc in China.
1. Changes in zinc consumption
Since 1990, the consumption of zinc in China has been increasing continuously. Since 2000, China has become the largest consumer of zinc in the world. According to the statistics of Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd., the actual consumption of zinc in China in 2009 was 465,438+10,000 tons, and the consumption proportion of zinc in the galvanizing industry increased from 5 1% in 2008 to 55%.
2. Zinc consumption structure in China.
Zinc consumption in China is mainly used for zinc plating, zinc oxide, batteries, brass, die-casting alloys and other purposes. The proportion of each purpose is 55%, 10%, 9%, 9%, 15% and 2% respectively (Figure 5).
Figure 5 Zinc consumption structure in China in 2009
Four. Domestic and international trade situation
(A) the international zinc trade situation
In 2009, the world zinc ingot trade situation improved compared with the previous year. Global exports were 3.669 million tons and imports were 3.490 million tons, up by 2. 1% and 2.8% respectively. In 2009, the export volume of zinc ingots from Canada, Australia, South Korea, Kazakhstan, Finland, Mexico, Spain, the Netherlands, India, Japan, Norway, Peru and Russia exceeded 654.38 million tons. Among them, Japan's exports rose rapidly, with an increase of 84.5%. However, Russian and Dutch exports decreased by 26.2% and 25.2% respectively (Table 8).
Table 8 Main exporters of zinc ingots in the world from 2005 to 2009
Source: World Statistical Yearbook of Metals, 20 10.
In 2009, the import (entry) volume of zinc ingots in the world exceeded 654.38 million tons, including the United States, Chinese mainland, Germany, Belgium, Taiwan Province Province of China, China, the Netherlands, Turkey, France and Italy. Among them, except China and Belgium, the import volume of other major import/export countries and regions has declined to varying degrees, and the decline rate of Taiwan Province Province of China, the Netherlands, France and Italy has exceeded 10%. However, the import volume of China increased exponentially, with a growth rate as high as 266. 1% (Table 9).
Table 9 Main importers/importers and regions of zinc ingots in the world from 2005 to 2009
Source: World Statistical Yearbook of Metals, 20 10.
(II) Domestic zinc trade
China has always been a big producer of refined zinc in the world. With the continuous expansion of production capacity, the supply of domestic zinc smelting raw materials is increasingly tight. Since 2003, China has become a net importer of zinc ore and its concentrate. In 2009, the import volume of zinc ore and its concentrate from 1 to1was 345 1767 tons (table 10), with a year-on-year increase of 62.7%. The main importing countries are Australia, Peru, Mongolia, Turkey, Iran, Myanmar and Vietnam. , and the total imports from these countries accounted for 665,438+0.4% of the total imports (table165,438+0).
Table10 Import and Export of Zinc Products in China from 2006 to 2009
sequential
Source: China Customs Statistics, Yearbook 2003-2007; Statistics of Nonferrous Metals, 2009 (1); Statistics of non-ferrous metals, 20 10( 1)
Table11Main Import Sources of Zinc Mines and Their Concentrates in China from 2006 to 2009
Source: Annual Report of Comprehensive Statistics of Land and Resources, 2003-2005; China Customs Statistical Yearbook, 2007; Statistics of Nonferrous Metals, 2009 (1); China Pb, Zn, Sn and Sb 20 10( 1)
Verb (abbreviation of verb) zinc price trend
(A) the international market price trends
In 2009, the annual average price of LME in the international zinc market continued the downward trend in 2008. The average spot price in the whole year was 1654.7 USD/ton, and the average futures price in March was 168 1.3 USD/ton, which decreased by 1 1.7% and 65438+ respectively. However, in 2009, the general trend of price changes was upward fluctuation. In 2009, LME spot and futures prices in zinc international market converged, and both fell to the lowest point in February, which were111.8 USD/ton and1/35.6 USD/ton respectively.
(B) the domestic market price trends
The domestic zinc price showed a steady growth trend from 1990 to 1997, rising from an average of 7280 yuan/ton in 1990 to 10870 yuan/ton. From 1997, the domestic zinc price trend is basically consistent with the LME price trend, reaching the lowest point of 7944.2 yuan/ton in 2002. After 2002, prices began to rise. In 2007, the domestic zinc price reached a record high, and the annual average spot price was 28 19 1.9 yuan/ton. In 2008, the change of domestic zinc price was similar to that in the international market, and the transaction price of production materials in various places was 15792.3 yuan/ton, down 44.0% compared with 2007. The futures price of Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) in March was 15902.5 yuan/ton, down 38.6% compared with 2007. In 2009, the average annual price (transaction) of domestic production materials market continued to decline 10.4% on the basis of 2008, reaching 14 146.5 yuan/ton, the lowest since 2006. The futures price of Shanghai Futures Exchange in March was 13367 yuan/ton, down 15.9% year-on-year, as shown in Figure 6. However, according to the changes of zinc price in each month in 2009, the transaction price in various production materials markets and the futures price in March showed a slow upward trend, rising from 1 1533.3 yuan/ton in June and 10353 yuan/ton in February, respectively.
Figure 6 Changes of LME and domestic zinc average price from 1990 to 2009
Figure 7 Monthly changes of zinc prices abroad in 2009
Figure 8 Monthly changes of domestic zinc price in 2009
Conclusion of intransitive verbs
Internationally, in 2009, the world's refined zinc continued the trend of supply exceeding demand since 2007, with an excess of 92,000 tons. The world zinc ingot trade has improved compared with the previous year, with the annual import and export volume increasing by 2.8% and 2. 1% respectively. However, LME zinc price is still difficult to change the downward trend since the financial crisis. Spot and March futures prices fell by 1 1.7% and 1 1.4% respectively.
Domestically, the output of zinc concentrate and refined zinc in China still ranked first in the world in 2009. In 2009, the zinc concentrate output (zinc content) in China decreased by 65438 0.9% compared with the previous year, which was the first time that the zinc concentrate output in China decreased since 2002. The output of refined zinc continued to increase on the basis of the previous year. Domestic zinc prices continued to fall on the basis of the previous year, hitting a record low since 2006.
(Ma Zhuohui)