Polyester staple fiber is a kind of polyester, accounting for about 13% of polyester products. The main specification is semi-dull white1.56 dtex * 38 mm; Half light1.33 * 38mm; On1.33 * 38mm; Special specification for spunlace1.56 * 38mm; 2.22/2.78*5 1mm medium-long fiber, etc. , in which semi-dull white 1.56dtex*38mm is the futures benchmark delivery.

Polyester staple fibers are classified as follows:

Among them, spinning is 65.2%, sewing thread 1 1%, non-woven fabric1.15%, filler1.07% and others/kloc-.

From the perspective of raw materials, recycled short fiber plays an important role in the structure of short fiber, and its regenerative capacity accounts for 55% of short fiber, which is higher than that of primary short fiber. However, due to the limited start-up of recycled staple fiber in recent years, the proportion of recycled staple fiber output has gradually decreased, which is lower than that of primary polyester staple fiber. See the table below for details:

Among the primary staple fibers, they are divided into conventional polyester staple fibers (47%), hollow low melting point 10% and chip spinning 1%. Among the regenerated short fibers, 23% are regenerated ordinary fibers and 19% are regenerated hollow fibers.

Fundamental analysis of polyester and short position

1. Supply

In terms of production capacity, in the past decade, the peak production capacity was 20 12, which was due to the rise of cotton, resulting in a large production capacity of polyester staple fiber. The latest production capacity was put into production at 18- 19, driven by the overall polyester business cycle. In 2020, the growth rate of production capacity is relatively small, and the pressure is not great in the short term, but after 202 1, the production capacity will enter a period of rapid growth.

In terms of output, the apparent growth rate this year is slightly lower than last year, but it still maintains double-digit growth, mainly due to the rapid growth of output this year (the capacity growth this year is relatively small, but the output has been released this year) and the sharp decline in exports (mainly affected by the epidemic).

On a monthly basis, the output shrank in the first quarter due to the reduction in production, and increased significantly after the rapid growth in the second and third quarters (the increase in output was mainly due to better demand, including the demand for non-woven fabrics caused by the epidemic and the recovery in the demand for home textiles in the third quarter). It is expected that the apparent growth rate will still be high in the fourth quarter.

2. Demand

Judging from the annual demand, the consumption growth rate of 20 17-20 19 is relatively high (both 20 17 and 20 19 are double-digit growth rates). On the one hand, this is due to the polyester business cycle. On the other hand, the implementation of the 20 17 abolition ban led to the original anti-substitution, and we also saw 20656. It is predicted that the demand for primary polyester and short-term products will still have a double-digit growth this year (equal to the apparent growth).

Due to the implementation of the ban, the advantages of recycled short fiber are not obvious. After two years of operation, the anti-substitution of primary cotton type has been basically completed (there is still room for substitution of primary hollow).

Alternative demand:

We know three main raw materials in cotton spinning industry: cotton, polyester staple fiber and viscose fiber. At present, the viscose industry is relatively stable, accounting for about 20%, but the substitution of cotton and polyester is still there. The proportion of cotton consumption decreased slightly, while the proportion of polyester consumption increased slightly. On the one hand, due to the sharp decline of polyester raw materials, polyester is more cost-effective; On the other hand, the demand for polyester staple fiber nonwovens has improved this year; In addition, the decrease in cotton demand is mainly due to the outward migration of pure cotton yarn production.

75% of polyester staple fiber downstream is used for spinning. There are mainly pure polyester yarn, polyester cotton yarn and polyester viscose yarn downstream of cotton polyester staple fiber, among which pure polyester yarn is the main downstream of cotton polyester staple fiber.

In the whole textile yarn, pure polyester yarn accounts for about 19%. Among the pure polyester yarn raw materials, there are still about 30% recycled polyester staple fibers, and 100% pure polyester yarn raw materials are staple fibers; Polyester and cotton yarn account for 65,438+05%, of which the consumption of polyester and staple fiber raw materials accounts for about 65,438+00% of the total consumption of textile raw materials; Polyester viscose yarn accounts for 9%, of which the consumption of polyester staple fiber raw materials accounts for about 5.85% of the total textile raw materials; The polyester and staple fibers used in the three yarns account for about 35% of the total textile raw materials.

Therefore, the important order of the three yarns is pure polyester yarn, polyester yarn and polyester yarn.

Judging from the terminal demand, the pure polyester yarn can be started at present, and the recent start-up of terminal weaving has increased greatly. Weaving orders exceeded expectations in a short time, generally reaching1the end of October1the beginning of the month, and some cashmere orders could reach 65438+February. Overall, the short-term demand is acceptable.

3. Inventory

This year, the inventory control of polyester staple fiber is relatively good. Compared with filament varieties, the inventory is relatively low, especially during May-June, due to the epidemic situation, the demand for non-woven fabrics even appears negative inventory. At present, polyester short inventory is still relatively healthy.

Step 4 evaluate

From the profit point of view, the profit of direct spinning polyester is better at 20 17-20 19, which is mainly affected by the waste ban and the overall business cycle of polyester. The profit of 20 19 declined in the second half of the year, but this year, due to the demand for non-woven fabrics, the profit rebounded again. At present, the processing fee is 1300- 1400 yuan/ton, and it is generally believed that the processing fee is 900- 1000 yuan/ton, and the profit is still good, but the high profit has dropped from the previous period.

Summary and strategy

From the perspective of supply and demand, the short-term supply and demand side is relatively healthy, and the production capacity has not increased much this year. Although the apparent growth rate is expected to be higher this year, the demand growth rate is expected to be the same as the apparent growth rate, and the short-term inventory level is healthy. Short-term downstream demand is better than last month, which has certain support for prices. However, in the year after next year, the short-term capacity growth of polyester will resume a high growth rate (of course, there may be repeated cashing of capacity), which will affect long-term expectations.

Strategically, the processing difference below 1300 yuan/ton can earn more, that is, more PF is empty PTA and MEG. The monthly difference can be lower than the positive set of level 5-9. Short-term short-term of 5500 yuan/ton can be shorted a lot, but the height is limited. After all, the contract in May will face the off-season of the Spring Festival.

In addition, last year, the output of cotton and polyester short-term products was about 2.9 million tons, with an average monthly output of more than 240,000 tons. At present, there are 7 delivery factories and warehouses with a delivery capacity of 6.5438+0.2 million tons.