The data shows that the stock of fertile sows and pigs continued to decline at the end of the first quarter, and "de-capacity" ignited the bullish sentiment in the market. At the same time, pork was purchased and stored many times during the year, and the signal of "policy bottoming" enhanced market confidence and hindered the space for pig prices to fall. At the same time, after all the 40,000 tons of pork were auctioned on April 22nd, it reflected the bullish sentiment in the market and provided an opportunity for the price of live pigs to turn around.
On the one hand, the epidemic situation weakens domestic consumption demand, on the other hand, it affects the smooth progress of international import and export trade.
At present, the international meat price continues to rise, and the price difference advantage of imported meat almost disappears. In March, China imported 230,000 tons of pork and offal, of which pork imported10.4 million tons, up 7.69% from the previous month, and continued to drop sharply year-on-year, with a drop of 69.57%. In terms of imports, it is difficult to recover this year, so that the domestic pig breeding industry has also eased the dilemma of "internal troubles and foreign invasion".
After entering the end of April, the epidemic situation in many places eased, logistics and transportation gradually recovered, and there was a phenomenon of wharf hoarding in some areas.
At the same time, the new policy of pig transportation in Guangdong was introduced. Since May 1 day, the transportation of live pigs to be slaughtered in other provinces has been suspended. As a result, the scale farms in Guangdong and Guangxi have increased their prices. As the end of the month approaches, the number of pig enterprises in the northern region decreases, farmers' selling at reduced prices intensifies, slaughterhouses stock up for May 1 ST Labor Day, and the phenomenon that pig prices turn from falling to rising is prominent, which in turn leads to an increase in pig prices nationwide.
"Double game contest" will determine the trend of pig price during this period: a game contest is the game between the breeding end and the slaughtering end.
April-May is a stage when the storage of frozen pig products is relatively large. However, with the sharp rise in the price of live pigs and the increase in the storage cost of frozen products, slaughter enterprises will reduce the slaughter volume.
According to the survey, large-scale farms intend to postpone the slaughter of pigs until May, and the degree of game between breeding and slaughter will determine the supply of pigs in the near future.
Another game contest is the game between the supply side and the consumption side.
In the near future, it is necessary to focus on collecting the price and turnover of white-striped pigs. In the current off-season, if there is a phenomenon that high prices restrain consumption, there will be very limited room for short-term pig price increase.
However, once the market accepts that the price of live pigs is around 7 yuan/kg, with the end of breeding and the intervention of secondary fattening, the price of live pigs will rise again in May. However, this has laid a "hidden danger" for the trend of pig prices in the later period.
According to the latest consumption data, the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, the biggest slowdown since the epidemic in 2020, with food and beverage consumption becoming the biggest drag. Under the background of "supply exceeds demand", it is more difficult for pig prices to rise sharply.
According to the monitoring of the pig price system, among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs has increased in 24, decreased in 0, and remained flat in 2, and the rising areas accounted for 92% of all the monitored areas. The whole hog market shows a "large-scale rise" trend.
According to the purchasing difficulty of slaughter enterprises, it is less difficult for slaughter enterprises to purchase pigs in various places. Many slaughter enterprises have reduced their numbers, while breeding groups have increased their numbers. The whole enthusiasm for buying and selling has obviously weakened, and the market sentiment has changed obviously. Because it is difficult to sell high-priced white bars, it has played a certain role in inhibiting the continuous rise of pig prices. The number of pigs listed by the leading group has increased significantly, the increase in bidding results has obviously weakened, the enthusiasm of traders for bidding has weakened, and it is more difficult to sell high-priced pig sources.
Early warning of pig price trend tomorrow: combined with the recent analysis of pig market factors, it is expected that the pig price will show a trend of "more rising and less falling" tomorrow, and some areas will show signs of shock and decline.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome to exchange views on the live pig market, grasp the market dynamics, like and share. I believe that with your help, the price of pigs will continue to rise tomorrow.