As we all know, the freight problem has always been the focus of card friends' attention, and the price drop is like a heart disease, which has suppressed everyone's enthusiasm.
It stands to reason that from the "9.2 1 New Deal" to now, there have been several policies that are conducive to the increase in freight rates. Can the freight be adjusted to a reasonable level at least? But as you can see, what caused the drop in freight?
Why did the freight drop?
There is no doubt that this epidemic has affected every aspect of life.
○ Figure 3 National Road Freight Transportation in March
○ Figure 4 National Road Freight Transportation in April
According to the data released by the Ministry of Communications, the national road freight volume in March and April showed a negative growth trend compared with the historical data of last year, which means that the supply of "cars" and "goods" has formed a relationship of oversupply.
As a means of transportation of means of production, trucks are at best just a means of production. After the means of production lose their original advantages, trucks as transportation capacity will also lose control of their affiliated commercial value (freight).
This environment is no less than providing a "hotbed" for the decline in freight rates. Although China began to recover gradually in March, it was far from the level of previous years.
In addition to being influenced by the big environment, Jia Ge feels that the most chilling thing for card friends is the mercenary practices of some shippers.
In a special period, 30 million card friends provoked the burden of connecting all parties. Without card friends, it is difficult to transport medical and living materials to the epidemic area. It is such a group of respectable retrograde people who were "stabbed" in the second half of the epidemic.
In order to ensure the orderly resumption of production in various industries, the Ministry of Communications began to implement highway toll-free on February 17 this year (ending on May 5).
The original intention is to guide the society to restore vitality by reducing the logistics cost, but the cost reduction work is stuck in the freight, which does not benefit the first-line card friends and is unfair to them.
On the other hand, under the influence of the epidemic, global oil prices have been falling, and domestic diesel prices have almost returned to the "five-yuan era".
This "good opportunity to reduce freight" is naturally seen by many shippers. The previous round-trip price of 4000 can only be 3500.
At the same time, some card friends also told my brother that because of these two things, my freight has dropped by 60%.
○ Tu, Sichuan Kayou
○tuè Guangdong Kayou
Long-term price reduction
In addition to the above-mentioned force majeure, there are many other objective reasons for the decline of freight logistics for so many years.
The entry threshold is low and the professional quality is uneven.
Different from other industries, the transportation industry does not have too many rigid requirements for practitioners, and they can get on the road with good health and a clear head, which has also created the phenomenon that 80% of the 30 million cardholders in the country are retail investors.
They don't have a fixed route and supply, and a few will pry goods at low prices, and return cars will run around and hit the market, which will lead to market chaos even if the freight is low. The large tonnage label of the blue light truck is a good example.
It's too easy to buy a car, and a large number of new cars are pouring in.
After the "9.2 1 New Deal", everyone thought that the freight market would gradually get on the right track, and they paid for cars one after another, and the national truck sales increased three times in a row. On the other hand, the promotion activities such as "zero down payment and zero yuan purchase" that have arisen in recent years have also aroused many people's desire to buy.
As retail investors, most of them still need loans and repay them on time every month. Under such pressure, even if the freight rate is not ideal, it can only be forced to accept it.
The success of finding goods APP and the failure of card friends' bargaining power
Do you still remember the various offers when the search APP was first launched? Not only the owner of the goods has a delivery subsidy, but even the driver has a delivery subsidy, and one finger can do business.
Today, these softwares are successful. In order to withdraw funds and make profits, these subsidies have become barbs, which have penetrated into the body of card friends and eroded their due returns, making the freight rate drop again and again.
The shipper's price reduction is "reasonable" because of different law enforcement.
Although the "9.2 1 New Deal" restricted many vehicles from getting on the expressway, some drivers still took the national highway in order to save freight, which led to the emergence of gray areas in various places and greatly reduced the effect of over-limit control.
Because standard carriers are too self-disciplined, shippers tend to choose overloaded vehicles. In the long run, in the face of standard carriers, these shippers can also "properly" reduce freight rates.
What is the root cause?
The series of events from the shipper's sending out the transportation demand to the card friend's undertaking the transportation task can be regarded as a complete commercial behavior, so we can also try to explain why the freight rate is so low from the perspective of economics.
The phenomenon reflected in this story is called "the tragedy of the masses" in economics. The herdsmen who want to raise one more cow are actually the same kind of drivers who disrupt the market with our low-cost competition today.
○ Tu Tu Logistics Park Small Blackboard
They all want to offset the loss of falling freight through such a way of "small profits but quick turnover", but this will hurt the interests of those who are unwilling to reduce prices invisibly.
The whole logistics market is like the public land mentioned in the story, and logistics companies and retail investors are like herders inside.
Although every household will set a lower limit at the beginning, in real life, speculators will inevitably secretly reduce the freight rate in order to take more orders.
Over time, more people cut prices. If you don't cut prices, you're still "doing nothing." The end result is that the whole market price continues to fall and it is difficult to pick up. Everyone is miserable. The real initiator may have chosen not to drive.
Is there any possibility of recovery in the future?
In response to this problem, my brother may have to throw cold water on everyone. Unless the country can come forward or a strong association appears to bind all practitioners, the freight problem will be difficult to pick up in a short time.
"Whoever raises the price first will die first, and whoever does not raise the price will die first" has been circulating in the industry. Price increase is a technical activity, which requires both enterprise consciousness and government intervention.
Today, the transportation industry has become an indispensable part of people's lives. In a sense, it has become a livelihood project, and its publicity is becoming more and more obvious.
Since it has the attribute of * * *, the relevant departments can't regard logistics and transportation as a complete market behavior and bear the responsibility. At least in the matter of assisting freight rate adjustment, functional departments should not let the market adjust spontaneously, but should undertake corresponding market compensation functions to guide the healthy development of the industry.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.