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Evolution and Development Trend of Sugar Price System in China
(A) the formation and causes of the sugar price system in China
1. Sugar price system before sugar industry reform (199 1 before)
Before the 1990s, under the planned economy system, China implemented the unified purchase and marketing of white sugar, and the price of white sugar was determined by the state. Due to the highly centralized and unified pricing system at this stage, the state completely controls the pricing of white sugar, and the main sugar-producing areas do not participate in the pricing system of white sugar.
2. Sugar price system after sugar industry reform (199 1-2000)
In order to invigorate the circulation, mobilize the enthusiasm of sugar management and promote the development of sugar industry, the state changed the mode of "unified acquisition and centralized management" under the planned system in199/kloc/year, and the circulation price of sugar was changed to market-adjusted price, and the ex-factory price was changed from state price to national guidance price. At this stage, Guangxi began to participate in the ex-factory pricing of sugar, but due to limited autonomy, pricing power is still in the hands of the whole country.
3. Sugar price system after China's entry into WTO (200 1 till now)
After joining WTO, with the improvement of sugar marketization, the focus of national regulation has shifted from regulating supply and demand to regulating sugar prices. In 200 1 year, the state released the government-guided price of sugar, and at the same time delegated the purchase price of sugar to the provincial price department for management. Since 2008, the state has comprehensively established a price dynamic adjustment mechanism in which the purchasing price of sugar is linked to the selling price of sugar and the sugar is settled twice. On 20 15, the main producing provinces gradually canceled the unified pricing of sugar purchase, but on 20 19, Guangxi's sugar marketization reform did not really get rid of government pricing, so Guangxi's government pricing became the core and essence of sugar pricing.
(B) Changes in the sugar price system in China
In recent years, imported sugar and smuggled sugar have been pouring into China, and the downstream consumers in the domestic sugar industry are also actively seeking the replacement and supplement of beet sugar and starch sugar, and the impact of sugar futures on the spot market price has been improved as a whole. All these factors have challenged the sugar pricing system dominated by Guangxi, and sugar pricing is showing a trend of diversification and marketization.
1. The influence of foreign sugar on China's sugar price system
(1) the relationship between foreign sugar and the international pricing power of China white sugar.
Under the background of globalization, according to the commodity "law of one price", strong international pricing ability can lead the global sugar price development trend and make the domestic sugar industry occupy a leading position in international sugar pricing. Generally speaking, the quality of sugar in China is low, the production cost is high, the technical index of sugar yield is not excellent, and the international competitiveness of sugar industry is insufficient. Compared with ICE raw sugar futures, China's international pricing ability based on sugar futures price still needs to be improved. At present, it is not enough to eliminate the influence of foreign sugar, and foreign sugar will continue to affect the pricing system of white sugar in China in the future.
(2) The scale of imported sugar and its influence on the pricing system.
China's sugar import is subject to tariff quota, and the import volume in 2011-2016 is more than 3 million tons. In May, 20 17, China imposed a three-year safeguard tariff on over-quota imports, but because the profit of imported sugar was much higher than that of domestic sugar, the import volume was not really controlled. With the expiration of safeguard tariff in May 2020, the amount of imported sugar has gradually increased, reaching 3.93 million tons in 2020/202 1 cropping season, setting a record in the history of sugar import in recent years, and it is expected to remain high in the later period, and the impact of imported sugar on the pricing system of white sugar will continue.
The impact of imported sugar on China's sugar pricing system is mainly reflected in the decisive role of the local government in Guangxi and the absolute dominant position of sugar enterprises in Guangxi. First, under the impact of imported sugar, the correlation between domestic and foreign markets has been enhanced, and it is difficult for the sugarcane purchase price policy to play a role in stabilizing the sugar industry, and the core position of the government in the sugar pricing system has been weakened to some extent. Second, most of the imported sugar is raw sugar, and a large number of raw sugar processing enterprises have appeared around the Bohai Sea and the southeast coast. Since 20 12, the output of processed sugar in Yunnan province has exceeded that of white sugar, and the pricing power of processed sugar has been strengthened day by day. The original sugar processing plant has gradually broken the ex-factory pricing pattern of "one sugar and one enterprise dominates" in Guangxi.
(3) The influence of smuggled sugar on the pricing system.
The huge price difference between domestic and foreign sugar leads to the proliferation of smuggled sugar. Faced with the lure of high profits of nearly 2,000 yuan/ton, smuggled sugar mainly transits into Chinese mainland through Myanmar and Taiwan Province Province of China. In recent years, due to the continuous crackdown on sugar smuggling in China, the amount of smuggled sugar in the 20 18/20 19 cropping season has been reduced to about 500,000 tons, and has been continuously reduced since then.
Smuggling sugar directly lowers the sales price of domestic sugar and affects the pricing of white sugar in China. The higher the share of smuggled sugar, the greater the destructive power to the sugar pricing system. Therefore, to a certain extent, China's crackdown on sugar smuggling in the future will directly affect the ownership of sugar pricing power.
2. The influence of beet sugar on the price system of white sugar
(1) beet sugar situation
Beets are mainly distributed in northern China. In 2020/202 1 cropping season, the national beet sugar output was1532,600 tons, of which Inner Mongolia accounted for 58.33% and Xinjiang accounted for 37.59%. Because the pressing cost of beet sugar is higher than that of sugarcane sugar, planting beet will seriously damage the land, and the planting technology needs to be improved. It is estimated that the output of beet sugar in China will be limited in the later period.
(2) The influence of beet sugar on the price system.
At present, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia carry out the order-based agriculture model, which greatly weakens the influence of the two governments in the domestic sugar pricing system and strengthens the role of sugar enterprises in the pricing system. The output of beet sugar in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang accounts for 9 1% of the whole country. With the steady growth of beet sugar, the influence of sugar enterprises in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang will gradually increase in the domestic sugar pricing system, but the influence is still relatively limited because the limitation of beet sugar production is still not enough to reach the output of sugarcane sugar in Yunnan.
3. The influence of starch sugar on the price system of white sugar
(1) starch sugar
Starch sugar is mainly a deep-processed product of corn, which is soft in sweetness and easy to process, and is a supplement to white sugar. Since the 20th century, the output of starch sugar in China has increased from 1 10,000 tons in 2000 to nearly10.2 million tons in 2065.438+07. Considering that the corn planting area has dropped significantly after marketization, the corn inventory has been continuously reduced, and the starch sugar industry has a serious overcapacity, so there is limited room for increasing starch sugar production in the future.
(2) The influence of starch sugar on pricing system.
On the one hand, starch sugar and white sugar have a certain substitution relationship. When the domestic sugar price is high, the consumption of starch sugar shows an obvious growth trend; When the sugar price is at a low point, the consumption of starch sugar will be restrained. On the other hand, starch sugar can't completely replace white sugar. Starch sugar has low sweetness and poor taste, and can only be replaced in some fields. In addition, at present, the demand for fructose corn syrup in the domestic market is strong, the demand for cola and beverages is in an explosive state, the price of raw corn continues to strengthen, and the prices of supporting upstream manufacturers have risen sharply under the rising cost. At present, the price difference of substitutes is at a historical low. Therefore, we believe that the weak substitution relationship between starch sugar and white sugar is not enough to affect the pricing system of white sugar.
4. The influence of sugar futures on the sugar price system in China.
The influence of sugar futures on sugar pricing system can be reflected by two indicators: one is correlation. Although the relationship between spot guidance in sugar period shows some differences in different years, most years show one-way guidance of futures prices to spot prices. The second is the contribution rate of futures prices. The price discovery contribution rate of sugar futures is above 50% in most years, with an average contribution rate of 54.5438+0%. Therefore, the futures market plays a leading role in the price discovery process.
On the whole, the current sugar futures price can guide the spot price stably and play a leading role in the discovery of sugar price. Therefore, the futures price can reflect the real price of sugar, which is suitable as the basis of domestic trade and settlement, and has led to the change of the pricing system of sugar from spot price to futures price.
(C) the development trend of sugar price system in China
1. Marketization of sugar pricing
China's sugar pricing system is a gradual marketization process from the government's comprehensive regulation of sugar prices to the special regulation of sugar prices, from the government's regulation of five major sugar producing areas to the regulation of only one local government in Guangxi.
2. Diversification of pricing subjects
With the gradual withdrawal of the government, the increase of sugarcane sugar output, the stability of beet sugar output and the continuous import of raw sugar, China's white sugar pricing system has broken through the previous pattern that Guangxi prices determine national prices. In the future, the sugar pricing system will form a benign and stable industrial pattern in which sugar companies in Yunnan, Shandong, Liaoning, Hebei, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other places participate in pricing, and the trend of diversification of pricing entities in sugarcane sugar companies, beet sugar companies and raw sugar processing enterprises will gradually take shape.
3. Futures price guidance
With the marketization of sugar pricing and the gradual improvement of sugar futures rules and regulations, the function of sugar futures will become more and more mature. In the future, sugar futures prices will guide spot prices stably for a long time, and the contribution rate of sugar futures to price discovery will also increase steadily, and futures prices will increasingly dominate the sugar pricing system.
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Influence of price system change on spot market of white sugar
(1) The price fluctuation of white sugar is complicated and frequent.
Sugar has always been an unstable commodity. With the marketization of sugar pricing system, the relatively stable sugar price will be in a state of frequent oscillation. Because the cost of sugar accounts for more than 70% of the production cost of white sugar, the frequent oscillation of sugar price will inevitably drive the price of white sugar to fluctuate greatly simultaneously. In addition, with the diversification of the pricing subject of white sugar, beet sugar and processed sugar, which had little effect on the price of white sugar, would increase the fluctuation range of white sugar.
(2) The contradiction between government pricing and the marketization of sugar prices is more prominent.
The marketization of sugar price is an intuitive manifestation of the marketization of sugar pricing. This marketization trend is not only in line with the background of the deepening of China's marketization reform, but also in line with the general direction of the healthy and sustainable development of the sugar industry, which is unstoppable and irreversible.
Government pricing is based on previous price data, which is difficult to accurately reflect the changing trend of the market, easily divorced from the actual situation of the industry, and has been unable to adapt to the complex and frequent fluctuations of sugar prices under the marketization trend of sugar prices. In addition, government pricing directly pushes up the cost of sugar in the region, which is not conducive to the improvement of regional sugar industry competitiveness and hinders the pace of improving China's sugar industry's international competitiveness and international pricing ability. Facts show that the sugar industry needs the "invisible hand" of the market to actively play a leading role in resource allocation, while local governments need to change their functions and return to the macro-control standard according to national requirements.
(3) Sugar pricing is more objective and effective.
On the one hand, canceling the government pricing of sugar and returning the pricing power to the market can accurately reflect the relationship between supply and demand of sugar and ensure the objectivity of the cost price of sugar, thus laying the foundation for the effectiveness of the ex-factory price of sugar. On the other hand, the diversification of pricing subjects is conducive to the integration of the ex-factory price of sugar, fully embodies the interests of all parties in the pricing system, and is conducive to ensuring the effectiveness of the ex-factory price of sugar.
At the same time, the futures market attracts more sugar customers to participate in the transaction, and concentrates more information on the supply and demand of sugar on the futures trading platform, gathering market information and expectations. Sugar futures prices can truly reflect the supply and demand situation and price trends, provide expectations and signals for sugar spot participants, and then promote sugar pricing to be more objective and effective.
(four) affect the stability of sugar farmers' income and increase the risk of sugar enterprises.
Frequent price fluctuations make sugar farmers change from a stable income state to an uncertain profit and loss state, which may reduce their enthusiasm for planting. For sugar enterprises, frequent and large fluctuations in sugar prices will make their costs and benefits constantly changing, and it is impossible to accurately predict the future price trend and make proper arrangements for their future production.
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Influence of price system change on sugar futures market
Since the listing of sugar futures, the number of market participants has been increasing, the transaction scale has been steadily expanded, the price influence has been gradually enhanced, and its functions have been fully exerted. With the change of sugar price system, the futures market is facing opportunities and challenges.
(1) The basic conditions for market development are more perfect.
The change of price system will help to improve the basic conditions for the development of sugar futures market. First of all, the marketization reform of sugar price has improved the marketization degree of sugar price formation, which is conducive to the full play of the function of futures price discovery. Secondly, the diversification of pricing subjects makes all subjects have the opportunity to participate in the sugar pricing system, which promotes the normal competition in the sugar market and improves the effectiveness of sugar futures price discovery. Finally, in the face of frequent and large fluctuations in sugar prices, the risk management awareness of each subject will be further improved. In addition, the change of pricing system can further straighten out the interests of all subjects in the sugar industry chain.
(2) The unstable factors in the futures market have increased.
The futures market is a "barometer" that quickly reflects the price changes in the spot market. Facing the diversified pricing system, it is necessary to take into account the interests of beet sugar and processed sugar related subjects. At the same time, the phased linkage between the domestic market and the international market is strengthened, and factors such as global fundamentals and changes in domestic import policies will cause frequent and large fluctuations in sugar prices. These uncertainties increase the instability of the sugar futures market.
(3) Higher requirements are put forward for the variety maintenance of futures exchanges.
The diversification of sugar materials leads to the phased diversification of warehouse receipt registration for futures delivery, which leads to the drift of futures benchmark price and reduces the efficiency of price discovery. 1. With the increase of beet sugar in Inner Mongolia, the beet sugar warehouse receipts have increased substantially. Second, the number of registered warehouse receipts for processed sugar has increased significantly, and the impact of low-priced imported sugar on the spot market of white sugar in China has spread to the futures market. The continuation of this trend will weaken the effectiveness of price discovery, which puts forward higher requirements for futures exchanges to improve the efficiency of price discovery in variety maintenance.
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Countermeasures for Futures Exchange to Further Serve Sugar Industry
(A) to guide sugar enterprises to participate in hedging
At present, the customers who participate in hedging in the sugar industry are mainly concentrated in the middle reaches of the industrial chain, and the proportion of downstream sugar enterprises participating in hedging is low, which is not conducive to the full play of the hedging function of sugar futures.
Facing the price risk brought by the change of sugar pricing system, the exchange should study feasible schemes, promote sugar enterprises to actively use the futures market for hedging, promote basis trading, explore ways and means to form mutual benefit and win-win, and promote the establishment of a stable long-short hedging structure.
(2) resolutely curb excessive speculation
Due to the direction of price marketization and the diversification trend of pricing subjects, combined with the historical characteristics of price fluctuations, white sugar is easy to attract capital attention in the bull market cycle, and the market faces excessive speculation risks.
The exchange can start with improving the risk control requirements of sugar futures, refer to the practices of apple futures and jujube futures, put forward higher requirements on the relevant risk control system, and strengthen the monitoring of sugar futures operation accordingly.
(3) dynamically adjust the premium of the delivery warehouse.
With the continuous development of beet sugar in Inner Mongolia, the proportion of beet sugar in the total output of white sugar in China has been rising in the past four cropping seasons, and the current proportion has reached a historical high of 14.38%. At the same time, with the end of the tariff of three-year over-quota safeguard measures for imported sugar, the quantity of imported sugar will continue to increase, and the quantity of processed sugar in Shandong, Liaoning and Hebei will maintain a good growth momentum.
In order to reasonably balance the price of white sugar, on the basis of adjusting the premium of delivery warehouses around processed sugar in the early stage, the next step needs to comprehensively consider the factors such as supply cost, focus on adjusting the premium standard of delivery warehouses around beet sugar, and further adjust the premium standard of delivery warehouses in processing sugar areas in a timely manner to reasonably solve the potential premium advantages of beet sugar and processed sugar due to premium setting.
(4) Deepening the reform of the spot market.
Guangxi 20 19 issued a document to promote the market-oriented reform of sugarcane purchase and sale, and plans to adopt the same form of order agriculture as other major producing areas. However, the current form of order agriculture is still the government's mandatory demand price, and the order contract is signed for three years at a time. Sugar enterprises also tacitly followed the previous sugarcane area management model and did not completely get rid of government pricing.
In order to deepen the market-oriented reform of sugar industry smoothly, it is necessary to evaluate the reform effect in time, synthesize the existing problems and difficulties, fully absorb the experience and lessons accumulated from the previous target price reform of soybeans and cotton and the "market purchase price+subsidy" reform of corn, and constantly innovate ways and means suitable for the market-oriented reform of sugar industry to further deepen the market-oriented reform of sugar industry.
(5) Strengthen the popularization of futures knowledge.
At present, the work of the exchange mainly focuses on the training of existing members, and less on the proactive popularization of futures knowledge by national decision-making bodies. The CSRC or the exchange can spread its own futures knowledge to relevant ministries and commissions. At the same time, the exchange can actively cooperate with the CSRC to gradually bring futures education into the national education system, and give support in the process of establishing excellent teachers, innovating the learning methods and practical application of securities and futures knowledge.
(6) It is helpful to improve the international competitiveness of sugar.
Exchanges should actively play the guiding role of futures, help improve the international competitiveness and international pricing ability of China's sugar industry, and make sugar futures prices become the pricing benchmark in the international pricing system. On the one hand, the premium of refined and super-grade sugar is set up to encourage sugar enterprises to produce more products that meet international sugar standards; On the other hand, in line with Guangxi's goal of promoting the "two-step" production of sugar industry, raw sugar futures will be launched in time to realize the international integration of futures contracts.