Grab the rebound market or come to an end.
The band operator is the winner?
The data shows that the year-on-year growth rates of industrial added value above designated size in China from April to June were -2.9%, 0.7% and 3.9% respectively, and the year-on-year growth rates of Shanghai Composite Index from April to June were -6.3 1%, 4.57% and 6.66% respectively, showing a high positive correlation. On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,272 points, down 3.73% in the month, which may indicate that the new combination of economic improvement and stock market decline has played a role. When the influence of macro-level weights becomes smaller, A shares will run along the path with the least technical resistance.
Judging from the K-line in 2007, since it reached 6 124 in June 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index has experienced a box-like shock pattern of nearly 15, and the historical bottom mostly appeared near the 20-year moving average mark (the mark on Thursday was 2773), which was touched for two consecutive years. For example, 20 13, 20 14, 20 18, 20 19, with the annual K-line combination at the bottom. Only when the cost of the whole market returns to the average of the past 20 years can we find the bottom, which shows that every wave of market is just a rebound rather than a reversal. Although the bottom of the market is rising, the valuation is falling. If history repeats itself, after the Shanghai Composite Index fell near the 20-year moving average this year, the Shanghai Composite Index will return to this mark next year, that is, around 2800 points.
Since 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index seems to have had four bull markets with a cumulative increase of more than 50%. Only from 2005 to 2007 can it be called a big bull market, hitting a record high. From 2008 to 2009, from 20 14 to 20 15, and from the beginning of 20 19 to the present, all bull markets have rebounded.
China Peak-cutting Pinggu Regulation has successfully landed.
Haolai equipment longtou
On Thursday, the European Central Bank raised all three key interest rates by 50 basis points, the first increase since 1 1 year. The Stoxx 50 index in Europe fell by 0.3 1% that day, still shrinking by 18.5% compared with last year's peak. The market began to expect that the Fed would not strike hard, and recently raised interest rates by 75 basis points instead of 100 basis points. The Nasdaq rebounded for nearly a month from the bottom of last month, with an increase of about 14%.
Cautiously speaking, the continuous interest rate hike in Europe and America will lead to the appreciation of the euro and the dollar, and emerging markets will face the risk of massive withdrawal of international funds. The USD/RMB index rose from a low of 6.3048 in March this year to 6.768 on Thursday. According to Cai Dong's data. Com, as of Thursday, the net purchase of southbound funds of Hong Kong stocks in the past month was 25.849 billion yuan, while the net purchase of northbound funds of A shares was only 65.438+37 billion yuan. International funds may be betting on fine-tuning China's macro-control and entering a period of turning left and right.
The top management stressed this week that the macro-policy is precise, powerful, reasonable and moderate, and will not introduce super-large-scale stimulus measures, super-currency, and advance the future for excessive growth goals. The acceptable view that the economic growth rate is slightly higher has gradually become the new tone of regulation, and the market expectation that the macro-benefits will increase and the economic growth will exceed expectations in the second half of the year may fail.
Compared with the United States and Europe, China has the advantage of relatively rapid growth, and it is still the main tone at present. For example, from the fourth quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the growth rate of China's economy was 4.0%, 4.8% and 0.4% respectively. Comparing the year-on-year growth rates of CPI and PPI in June, China was 2.5% and 6. 1% respectively, and the United States was 9. 1% and1.3% respectively. Because there is a high probability of negative growth in the first and second quarters of the United States, the growth rate after deducting inflation has dropped sharply. It can be said that narrowing or even cutting off the transmission channel from PPI to CPI is a unique feature of China's macro-control, and the successful implementation of peak-clipping and pinggu-style regulation has enabled China's entire industrial chain to go hand in hand, instead of forcing short-term weak industries to transfer to other countries, resulting in hollowing out industries. For the A-share equipment leader, it is short and long.
Generally speaking, the walnut cycle weighted by equipment investment is 9 to 10 years, and China smoothed it out. As of Thursday, the electrical equipment index (880446) has risen to the first weighting industry of A shares, up 57% from the end of April, and the decline during the year narrowed to 3.76%. Its price-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio are 43 times and 5.34 times respectively. Such a high valuation shows that the market is highly optimistic about the prosperity and profitability of investment in new energy equipment.
In the second quarter, the stock-based jiacang momentum was obvious.
Need to be alert to the emergence of multi-killing and multi-type trampling on the market.
According to the global stock market ranking data of StockQ website, Shanghai B shares and Shanghai Composite Index rose by 5.35% and 4.88% respectively in the past 30 days, ranking fourth and fifth, and the actual increase after deducting inflation was even higher. In the same period, the stock markets of Venezuela, Russia and Argentina rose by 23.96%, 23.79% and 15.55% respectively, mostly driven by high stagflation.
A-shares can rise against the trend, which is the result of macro-policy turmoil, market index fluctuation and institutional position heartbeat, highlighting the smooth and efficient regulation and transmission mechanism in the A-share policy market. Choice data shows that as of July 2 1, 3,889 funds disclosed the second quarterly report, and 2,450 funds increased their positions in the current quarter, accounting for 63%. Among them, the stock positions of 27 active funds increased by more than 50%.
The research shows that the change of stock-based positions lags behind the market change, and the lag period is about 1-3 weeks. Among them, the lag period of 5 billion scale and 1 100 million scale is 1 week, and the rest are all 3 weeks. This shows that the timing ability of most stock bases is not better than that of the broader market, and it is difficult for most stock bases to avoid the adjustment of the broader market from the peak to the downside (below the 5-day or 7-day line). It can be seen that once the head-shoulder-bottom pattern appears, within one week after the market is broken, the individual rational lightening of large funds may lead to collective fallacy, which will lead to the * * * vibration and collapse of the market.
What needs to be vigilant is that the data of Tianxiang Investment shows that under comparable data, the overall position of equity funds in the second quarter rose from 87. 17% at the end of the first quarter to 88. 14% at the end of the second quarter, which has exceeded the warning line of the 88-position curse. At present, the Shanghai Composite Index oscillates around the half-year line, and the choice of direction is imminent. Since institutional positions are mostly at high positions, beware of killing and trampling.
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