On Wednesday, the market shrank, and the total turnover of the two cities was 1020 1. 1 billion. On the disk, public utilities, electrical equipment, national defense and military industries were among the top gainers, while mining, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, household appliances and other industries were among the top losers. The daily limit of the two cities is 6 1, and the daily limit is 2 1. The northbound capital inflow was 4.079 billion. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0. 17% to 3,587 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.33% to14,452.25 points, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37% to 3,285.12 points.
market outlook
On Tuesday afternoon, the National Development and Reform Commission organized key coal enterprises, China Coal Industry Association and China Electric Power Enterprise Federation to hold a coal symposium on the working mechanism of energy security and supply this winter and next spring to study and implement measures to intervene coal prices according to law. Under the expectation of policy intervention, the three major coal futures all fell, and the daily limit was not opened until the A-share market closed. It is expected that this intervention will have a huge impact on coal futures prices. Affected by this, the coal industry is also the industry with the biggest decline today. We don't need to ask whether the spot price of coal will be adjusted with the futures market, whether the energy crisis will be solved, and whether the A-share style will turn.
Although the price of coal futures has been greatly adjusted, according to the monitoring data of commercial organizations, the spot price of thermal coal continues to run strongly. In terms of production areas, the policy of ensuring supply in the main production areas continued, but the supply of Kengkou coal mine was still in short supply. On the whole, thermal coal is still tight, and coal phenomena such as trucks in coal-producing areas still exist. In terms of ports, the downstream demand is still active, and the demand for heating replenishment in winter has increased significantly. In this context, we also found that although the stock index of the coal industry fell by more than 7% today, from the perspective of the daily K-line, the red positive line still closed, indicating that there are still funds to undertake below. I predict that the logic of the coal industry is likely to shift from "reducing prices by quantity" to "stabilizing prices by quantity". In fact, the profitability of the whole industry may be better. Moreover, under the background that the edge of the energy crisis has been alleviated, industrial enterprises will also get out of the influence of "power restriction" and return to the right track. This may also be the reason why industrial stocks have stopped falling and stabilized recently.
Generally speaking, we believe that the market style has not changed, and the market is likely to continue the shock logic predicted before. At the same time, I also remind everyone that CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have stepped out of the daily trend of Liulianyang, and the "low valuation +X" industry is worth digging deep.
Operation strategy
In operation, it is suggested that the exponential operation interval should still be treated with box oscillation thinking in the short term. In terms of industry, it is recommended to pay attention to the band trading opportunities of the core track (finance, consumption, medicine, new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, etc.). ). In addition, coal, non-ferrous metals and military industry in "low valuation +X" are still worthy of attention.
Li, senior investment consultant of GF Securities, with the practice certificate number S0260612110012.