Many hedge fund managers and oil analysts who are bearish on crude oil are convinced that the rapid increase of crude oil inventories, especially in the United States, will inevitably lead to further decline in oil prices. But if the market is too short or too long, it is likely to develop in another direction in the event of an accident.
European and American crude oil began to rise gradually from March 18, and hedge funds began to cover some positions due to the gradual weakening of selling pressure. The news that Saudi Arabia launched air strikes in Yemen yesterday was confirmed, which only aggravated the above-mentioned trend in short covering.
Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, said in a report on Wednesday (March 25th) that US crude oil inventories will keep rising until May, which should temporarily support bearish sentiment, and said that there is still enough storage space to increase inventories.
Francisco Blanch, chief commodity researcher at BAML of America Merrill Lynch, predicted that the price of crude oil would be $58 in the fourth quarter. According to Bloomberg ranking, Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Blanche was the best Brent oil price predictor in the fourth quarter of last year.
Blanche said by telephone from new york that what really changed the crude oil market was Saudi Arabia's decision not to adjust the relationship between supply and demand from the supply level to maintain inventory stability. Even if the situation in the United States changes, the supply in the international market will be very sufficient.
Since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), headed by Saudi Arabia, announced that it would not cut production at the Vienna meeting last June165438+1October, oil prices have been falling. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly stressed this firm position, saying that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will persist in defending the crude oil market share. Moreover, Saudi Oil Minister Al-Naimeh indirectly confirmed on Sunday (March 22nd) that the country's production is increasing. He said that the country's current output is about 6.5438+million barrels per day, which is close to the highest level in history and about 350,000 barrels higher than the February output report submitted to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Therefore, yesterday's surge in crude oil prices seems likely to be a "flash in the pan". After all, the short-selling atmosphere in the crude oil market is still strong. Looking at the performance of today's oil market, European and American crude oil fell by 1 USD during the Asian session, giving back some of yesterday's gains, and the supply worries caused by the Yemen conflict seem to have eased.
At 4: 02 Beijing time/kloc-0, Brent crude oil futures price reported 58. 13 USD/barrel, down 1.24%.