Analysis: What is the impact of RMB depreciation on oil prices?
The depreciation of RMB led to the continuous rise of the US dollar, and the economic growth prospect of China was worrying, which led investors to speculate that the Federal Reserve might postpone the first rate hike, and also put pressure on exporters and luxury stocks. As a result, European and American stock markets plunged last night, and the Dow fell 1.2 1%. In addition, the market is increasingly convinced that global demand cannot keep up with the increasing oil supply, which has caused US crude oil futures to fall to a six-year low. The settlement price of light sweet crude oil for September delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange decreased by 1.88 USD to 43.08 USD/barrel, with a decrease of 4.2%. This is the biggest one-day decline of the futures in more than a month, and it is also the lowest closing price since March 2009 1 1. The introduction of this major bad news has undoubtedly made the international commodity market worse. Therefore, even if the USDA report is bullish as scheduled tonight, on the one hand, bullish has been digested, on the other hand, bullish components will be diluted by a series of negative effects brought about by RMB depreciation. In this way, it may be difficult for the United States to rise. However, after the depreciation of RMB, the profit of forward contract squeezing and hedging will be eroded, and the pressure faced by oil plants will be amplified. Because of the depreciation of RMB, the import cost of soybean will rise, and oil plants will raise the prices of soybean oil and soybean meal to ensure profits. Therefore, the depreciation of the RMB makes the US dollar stronger, and the US beans are under pressure, which is bad for the domestic oil market in the short term. However, if the depreciation continues and the import cost is pushed up, it will be good for the oil market price in the long run.