On June 2, local time, 1 1, the Russian Ministry of Defence said that the Russian Federation resumed its participation in the Black Sea port agricultural products export agreement (00006 1). Affected by this, international food prices fluctuated greatly. As of press time, the price of wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade continued to fall, with an intraday decline of 5.8% to $8.5 per bushel; Corn futures prices fell 2.2% to $6.826 per bushel; Soybean prices rose 1.3%.
"From the performance of the market, the market believes that the high probability of resuming outbound transportation is sustainable, which is beneficial to grain outbound transportation in the short term, but the long-term effect needs to be observed." Wang Na, research director of agricultural products of Everbright Futures, told the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald that in the short term, the resumption of the agreement will make the international food price slightly lower to some extent.
The Black Sea port is an important grain transportation channel. It is reported that more than a quarter of the world's annual wheat and barley exports, about a fifth of corn commodities and most of sunflower oil transportation depend on the Black Sea region. 10 year 10 on October 30th, Ukraine's grain export by sea came to a standstill after Russia announced the suspension of the implementation of foreign transport agreements.
The Black Sea port is an important grain transportation channel. Vision china
The agreement has experienced many twists and turns.
10/0 On October 29th, Russia accused Ukraine of attacking Russian ships involved in ensuring the safety of the grain corridor at sea, and announced that it would suspend its participation in the implementation of the agreement on the export of agricultural products at Black Sea ports. 165438+12 October, the Black Sea Grain Transportation Joint Coordination Center stated that the delegations of Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations agreed not to arrange any vessels to operate under the Black Sea Grain Initiative that day. This is the first time that the joint coordination center has interrupted the ship movement since the implementation of the outbound agreement.
From the outside world, such a scene is quite "abnormal" and the grain transportation has returned to order. Since the implementation of the Black Sea Grain Transportation Initiative, 362 cargo ships have left ports in southern Ukraine, and Ukraine has exported 8 million tons of agricultural products. Talking about the achievements of grain transportation, senior United Nations trade officials also said that from July to September, Russian wheat exports tripled and Ukrainian wheat exports more than quadrupled.
Why did the agreement suddenly change? In fact, Russia still has concerns about its own grain transportation. The Russian representative to the United Nations once told the United Nations that the export of Russian grain and fertilizer involved in the agreement has not been implemented, and that the export of Ukrainian grain has not solved the problems of poor countries. This has also become the fuse for Russia to announce the suspension of the Black Sea food agreement.
Tian, chief researcher of CITIC Jiantou Futures, told 2 1 Century Business Herald that from the perspective of export countries, the main destinations are concentrated in Mediterranean countries, namely Spain, Italy and Turkey, and the export volume to Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia in East Africa is very limited.
On the other hand, Tian pointed out that, to be exact, most of the grain comes from three ports in the Black Sea. Russia-Ukraine conflict and sanctions have restricted Russia's exports, making the implementation of the contract more beneficial to Ukraine than to Russia.
Wang Na also told reporters that at present, Russian exports are still wheat and corn, while Ukraine's corn exports account for a relatively large proportion, so if the Black Sea grain export agreement continues to be suspended, the impact on Ukraine will be even greater.
At present, Russia is not satisfied with the effect of its grain transportation abroad, or hopes to improve its grain export situation through the negotiation of the Black Sea grain agreement.
10/0 On October 29th, Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said that Russia is prepared to provide up to 500,000 tons of grain to the poorest countries for free in the next four months, and completely replace Ukrainian grain and supply it to all interested countries at acceptable prices.
"From the latest statement of Russia, we will consider replacing the share of some Ukrainian exports. Since Ukraine's export areas do not involve poor countries, and the Russian government exports 500,000 tons of grain to these countries, it may cause some changes in the export pattern and direction of the whole market. " Wang Na said.
The pattern of grain trade has changed.
At present, the Russian side is preparing to increase food exports in full swing.
10 year1October 30 Konstantin, Vice Chairman of the Russian Federation Council? Kosachev said that in view of Russia's bumper grain harvest, Russia is ready to completely replace Ukrainian grain in the international market. According to Russian assessment, it is estimated that Russian grain exports will exceed 50 million tons in this harvest season. Although Russia expects the grain harvest and export to be optimistic this year, Russia's grain export volume was in a year-on-year decline in the same period last year. It is reported that from 2020 to 20021year, Russia's grain export volume was 49 million tons, compared with 3,865,438+10,000 tons in the same period last year.
In addition, Russia's grain and fertilizer export speed is also facing a slowdown. Statistics show that 54 countries bought Russian wheat in 20021year, while only 24 countries bought Russian wheat this year.
Wang Na said that Russia's export of grain depends not only on the relationship between supply and demand in these countries, but also on whether some countries that used to accept Ukrainian exports can accept Russian grain now.
Yu Zhong, a researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said in an interview with the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald that there will be two major risks in grain export to Russia. "First, Russia suffered economic sanctions this year and its use of foreign exchange was limited. Some agricultural products need to be settled in rubles, which will inevitably affect the scope and volume of their grain transactions; Secondly, some countries' sanctions against Russia will have an impact on Russia's grain exports. "
"As long as the external sanctions against the Russian economy are not ended and the difficulties in using foreign exchange are not alleviated, Russia's grain export volume will not be greatly improved." Yu Zhong told reporters that Russia's goal of replacing Ukrainian grain supply in the international market will not be realized.
Compared with Russia, Ukraine's grain trade prospects are more concerned by the outside world. In Wang Na's view, at present, the outside world is concerned about how to digest the food stranded in Ukraine. "This problem first appeared at the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, that is, Ukraine's grain and oil were stranded at sea and there was no way to unload it. Now, this problem may appear again. "
At present, the changes in the pattern of grain purchase and sale will have a longer-term impact.
According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture, due to the conflict, the sown area in Ukraine in winter 2023 may be reduced by 30%-40%. The reduction of planting will affect future exports. On the other hand, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, many countries are currently reducing the amount of food purchased from Ukraine. According to data from the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UNComtrade), from June to July this year, more than 30 countries stopped buying food from Ukraine.
Wang Na believes that "this share of grain needs to be made up by other countries. For example, China has also transferred its import procurement needs to countries such as Russia or Brazil. " The transfer of purchase demand has led to changes in the pattern of international grain trade. Yu Zhong said that the main grain export areas include South America, North America and Australia, and the grain export volume of South America and North America is increasing unexpectedly.
In addition to the transfer of grain purchasing market, the frequent changes of Black Sea grain transportation agreements may also cause changes in regional grain planting types. MichaelMagdovitz, senior analyst of ABN amro in London, said that Ukrainian farmers may refuse to grow crops that may be "unsalable".
Under various factors, the interviewed experts generally believe that international food prices will climb in the future.
Yu Zhong told reporters that the current pattern of grain trade has changed, and it is predicted that the international food price will be at a high level, and the increase will even reach 20%.
Wang Na also believes that international food prices will indeed be at a relatively high level in the future. "On the one hand, due to the dry and hot weather this year, the output of many countries has declined, so the global food supply is still relatively tight; On the other hand, take the United States as an example, that is, a stronger dollar will lead to an increase in its export costs. At the same time, because all countries have the need to reserve more food for their own countries, these factors will push up international food prices. " But at the same time, she said that at present, it is still difficult for international food prices to adjust significantly.