According to the monitoring of many live pig data, the average price of ternary live pigs outside China today is 14.35 yuan/kg, which is 0. 17 yuan/kg higher than yesterday. What is rare is that the rising momentum in Northeast China, North China and East China is still rapid. Among them, Liaoning, Hebei, Anhui and other places rose around 0.5 yuan, and more than 70% of the country's pig prices rose above 7 yuan, but fell in the south. # Pig market #
There are several reasons for the increase in pig prices.
1, long-term losses make pig farms more reluctant to sell.
2. The market is generally optimistic about the increase in the number of pigs whose pig prices flow to the second fattening in the second half of the year.
3. Affected by public events, pork consumption will be promoted in a short time.
In the next month or two, the general judgment in the industry is that the weak is dominant.
There are three main bases for judgment: 1. At present, there is still no fundamental support for pork consumption in the off-season, and the motivation for rising pig prices is insufficient. ? 2. Affected by future public events, such as the May Day holiday, the boosting effect is limited. 3. There was sufficient supply of live pigs in the second quarter.
So why is the supply of live pigs sufficient in the second quarter?
Relevant data show that the number of piglets was at a high level in the fourth quarter of 20021year, about10.90 billion, but it dropped to10.69 billion in the first quarter of this year. Reduce by about 20 million heads. It takes about 5-6 months for piglets to be slaughtered, that is to say, if the birth of piglets is delayed by two quarters, the amount of live pigs can be obtained. According to this calculation, the output of live pigs will peak in the second quarter of this year, and the output will be significantly reduced in the third quarter. This is also a strong support for the statement that pig prices turned losses into profits in the third quarter.
Pig farmers who are not optimistic about the pig price in the second quarter are generally optimistic about the pig price after September.
Piglet's fill the column is extremely hot.
Recently, the price of piglets and the price of live pigs have risen continuously at the same frequency. Nowadays, the average price of piglets has approached the 30 yuan/Jin mark. According to this price, outsourcing a 30-kg pig probably needs 450 yuan.
In yesterday's article about the price of piglets, there was a message from a pig friend, 100 piglets weighing 30 kg, with an average 500 yuan per piglet. It is understood that the piglet market is extremely hot at present, and many piglets in sow farms have been scheduled to sell out, which is also the reason why pig farmers are optimistic about the market in the second half of the year. At this point, we can also see the judgment of pig farmers from our questionnaire.
It can also be seen from the questionnaire that nearly half of people think that the price of pigs will be higher after September than in 9 yuan. Then, according to yesterday's cost calculation plan, the cost of filling the column now will be about 7.6 yuan/Jin when it is released in five months. If the pig price can really rise above 9 yuan after September, then a pig will have a profit of more than 300 yuan, which is a high profit margin.
Be alert to the influence of secondary fattening on the third quarter. At present, the market is generally optimistic about the improvement of the enthusiasm for secondary fattening in the second half of the year or the concentration of pressure on pigs in the third quarter, which has an impact on pig prices and requires pig farmers to be vigilant.