However, the reason why urea in China has risen so high is that the export profit is higher. After all, the international urea has risen to 6, yuan/ton, and many fertilizer companies have increased their export volume, which makes the domestic urea supply less. As a result, the demand for urea is tight and the price is rising.
However, with the repeated interviews and even investigation by the National Development and Reform Commission, the price of urea began to fall. In December, the urea market went down one after another. At present, the national average price has dropped to 24-26 yuan/ton.
However, while China's urea is falling, the global urea is rising one after another. What's the matter? Blame China for exporting less?
1. Global urea rises
As we all know, natural gas and coal are the main raw materials for fertilizer production. However, this year, the prices of natural gas and coal all ushered in a sharp rise, which increased the production cost of fertilizer, and many international manufacturers could only reduce the production scale or even stop production, which made the international urea price continue to rise, and many countries were deeply affected.
For example, in Australia, due to the low export of urea from China, many diesel engine vehicles in the country are suspended from the road, and the freight supply chain may be broken in January next year. It is reported that nearly 5% of trucks in Australia are diesel engines, but this kind of trucks need to add urea environmental protection agent, otherwise the cars will be unable to get on the road because of pollution.
However, 8% of the urea in Australia is imported from China. Since China suspended the export of urea phosphate, Australia has been caught in a urea crisis. However, there is only one urea producer in the country, and one of them is about to close. As a result, the Australian government is in a panic and doesn't know what to do.
It is reported that the inventory of urea in Australia can only last for another month. If the urea import problem is not solved during this period, the logistics industry in Australia will be hit hard.
There was a "urea shortage" in South Korea as early as November, and the urea in this country was mainly used for diesel trucks. Due to the shortage of urea, South Korea can only import from Malaysia at a high price of 6,3 yuan/ton.
It is reported that more than 4 million trucks in South Korea need to be added with urea environmental protection agent, so the government is also eager for China to export more urea, otherwise the logistics system in the country will be paralyzed. China is the source of 97.6% of urea imported by South Korea every year, but China restricted its export in October.
The same is true in Japan, where 97% of industrial urea is imported from China. However, due to China's export restrictions, the price of urea in Japan has increased by nearly 1 times. However, domestic urea producers in Japan suffer from the shortage of raw materials and the decline in production scale.
It is reported that nearly 5% of urea raw materials in Japan have to be imported, while the international urea raw materials have soared and it is difficult to import, which makes the supply of urea for vehicles in Japan in short supply. If the problem of urea environmental protection agent cannot be solved, the transportation industry in this country will also be hit hard.
The same is true in the United States, where the price of urea has soared, and now it has risen to $68/ton, up 168.2% compared with the same period last year. The cost of corn planting increased from 85 dollars/acre in previous years to 165 dollars/acre.
In addition, the price of phosphate fertilizer has also increased from 45-5 USD/ton to 83-92 USD/ton; Anhydrous ammonia has risen to $1,3/ton, up 18% from November, and hit a new high for many years.
The same is true in Europe. Because of the crazy rise of natural gas, the production cost of chemical fertilizer has greatly increased, especially nitrogen fertilizer, in which natural gas raw materials account for 75%, so nitrogen fertilizer has increased even more sharply, from 43 euros/ton to more than 1, euros/ton.
2. Urea rises sharply, and food safety is threatened
Due to the sharp rise of raw materials, urea in the world has increased by more than 2%, but this is not a good thing for grain production, farmers' enthusiasm for planting will be hit, and rising grain will also drive food higher, which will increase the pressure on consumers' spending.
Lin Weier, fertilizer director of p>StoneX Group, said that at present, the urea stocks of enterprises have been basically sold, and the global urea crisis will become more intense after New Year's Day, and the urea price will continue to rise in the first quarter.
Kruse, head of the German Farmers' Association, said that due to the rising price of chemical fertilizers, farmers are expected to reduce the use of chemical fertilizers in the new year, and the output of agricultural products is also expected to decrease, which is not conducive to food safety.
Brazil is the largest soybean grower and the third largest corn producer. It is expected that the supply of chemical fertilizers will be tight in the new year, and the planting scale of corn, soybean and cotton may be difficult to grow, which is also not conducive to global food security. In Southeast Asian countries, the supply of chemical fertilizers is in short supply, and it is expected that the output or quality of fruits and vegetables will also decline in 222.
In order to cope with the rising fertilizer, India and Egypt have increased fertilizer subsidies one after another, and India also plans to increase the fertilizer subsidies to US$ 2.64 billion in 222, twice as much as the previous year.
3. How about urea in China in the coming year?
compared with the global urea surge, China's urea has dropped from 3,4 yuan per ton to 2,4 yuan per ton, and the current urea price is generally stable. The decline of urea is mainly due to the official restrictions on the export of urea since October. In addition, China has also introduced a number of policies to ensure the stable output of coal production, ensure the stable supply of fertilizer enterprises' production capacity, and avoid the reduction of production capacity due to "environmental protection".
Even so, China's urea exports from January to November were still 4, tons higher than that of the same period in 22, with an export volume of 5.26 million tons. Therefore, it is nonsense to complain that China's urea exports are decreasing, and we can only say that their demand is too great.
As for the fluctuation of urea in the coming year, I believe that under the control of many national policies, fertilizer enterprises will definitely give priority to domestic use. Coupled with the stable production capacity, it is expected that the price of urea will continue to be stable in the new year, and the price will be stable at 2,3-2,5 yuan per ton. What do you think?