First, the supply of corn is relatively reduced.
According to the forecast of the National Grain and Oil Information Center, the corn planting area in China was 30.46 million hectares in 2009, an increase of 600,000 hectares or 2.0% over the previous year's 29.86 million hectares. estimate
In 2009, China's corn output was1630,000 tons, which was 2.92 million tons lower than the previous year's 1659 1 10,000 tons, with a decrease rate of 1.8%. In contrast, although the macro-economy was affected by the global financial crisis last year, the growth rate of consumption slowed down, but due to the large population base in China and the improvement of people's living standards, China's corn consumption should continue to increase. With the decrease of output and the increase of consumption, the situation of oversupply disappears or the degree is reduced, and the increase of corn production has internal motivation.
Second, the government vigorously supports the market, and corn is easy to rise and difficult to fall.
After collecting and storing 36 million tons of corn produced in 2008, the government adopted a more flexible purchase method for corn produced in 2009, which took into account the interests of producers and consumers and was more conducive to the stability and rise of corn prices. The first is clarity and price stability. We can see that the purchasing and storage price of corn in Northeast China in 2009 was 0.75 yuan/kg, which was the same as last year. However, in 2009, the acquisition target was the third-grade corn in the new national standard. In 2008, the second-grade corn in the old national standard could not meet the standard of the third-grade corn in the new national standard. So in 2009, the purchase price of corn actually rose.
0.02 yuan/kg. Secondly, in terms of acquisition methods, last year was an index acquisition, which was acquired by China National Grain Storage Corporation. This year, the southern province 16 local grain reserve companies, feed processing enterprises, grain enterprises directly under the central government and other acquisition entities were introduced, and they were acquired by means of subsidies. This way is more conducive to the entry of corn into the field of circulation and consumption, thus making corn easier to consume, rather than simply becoming inventory, thus reducing the pressure on the market by centralized selling in the later period. In addition, we also see that in order to ensure the smooth development of purchasing and storage work, the government suspended the auction of temporary corn reserves in Northeast China from February 65438+February 1 2009, which shows that it has taken care of the corn market.
Third, farmers are reluctant to sell, the demand side snapped up, and the spot price of corn rose steadily.
The reduction of corn production in 2009 not only brought about the relative reduction of supply, but also farmers' reluctance to sell. Because of the high planting cost and the decrease of unit yield, the unit cost of corn increases, so avoiding losses or gaining more benefits has become the choice of most farmers. Therefore, despite the listing of new corn and the anti-seasonal increase in domestic corn prices, farmers still have a strong reluctance to sell. The demand side of the market, due to the rich processing profits, increased the price of corn, resulting in a steady increase in corn. It is reported that since 5,438+10 in June last year, the operating rate of starch sugar and starch processing in Shandong, Hebei and Northeast China has obviously rebounded, the operating rate of alcohol industry has steadily increased, product prices have reached a high level in recent years, and the demand for corn procurement is also at a high level. The operating rate of some large starch sugar processing enterprises in Shandong increased from about 60% in 5438+ 10 to about 80% in 12 years.
The profit of starch sugar processing reached the best level last year, and the profit per 1 ton of corn reached 200 yuan/ton. Due to the arrival of the holiday consumption peak season, the feed consumption of corn has also improved significantly. According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture, at the end of1/there were 465.9 million live pigs in China, up about 13% year-on-year. The continuous increase in the price of live pigs before the Spring Festival will generate strong feed demand. Due to the promising breeding prospects, the enthusiasm of feed enterprises in the current production and marketing areas for corn procurement has been significantly improved. According to monitoring, at present, the purchase price of corn in Jilin corn deep processing enterprises is mostly in
1570- 1630 yuan/ton, up 60-80 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month. The purchase price of corn in Xinxiang, Henan Province in Huanghuai area 1740 yuan/ton, and the price of corn in Guangdong port 1930 yuan/ton.