The recent trend of pig prices is also the same. Stimulated by various profit-increasing factors, pig prices have climbed to "new highs", and some self-supporting farmers have successfully realized "turning losses into profits", greatly enhancing the confidence of farmers.
Although today's pig prices are "high and low", and 54% of provinces and cities are falling, we should not be too anxious. We must catch our breath after rising so much continuously.
It is actually reasonable to cause the pig price to rise and fall.
Because with the rising price of pigs, slaughter enterprises have resistance to collecting pigs at high prices, and at the same time, because of the poor consumption level, the motivation for rising pig prices is naturally weaker. With the domestic main futures prices plummeting, the bullish sentiment in the market is relaxed, and the willingness to go out on rallies is enhanced. Staged consumption constraints are still an important factor limiting the continuous rise of pig prices.
Some time ago, with the fluctuation of pig price, the bullish sentiment in the market increased, the feed cost decreased, the phenomenon of slaughtering pigs increased, and the average weight of slaughtering pigs increased to 120 ~ 130 kg, which also meant the improvement of pork supply capacity in the market. Due to the influence of domestic masks, market consumption has been hit hard, and the food in restaurants has been obviously suppressed. The data shows that the income of domestic catering industry in April was only 26,000.
The superimposed phased consumption is still in the off-season, and the phenomenon of "supply exceeds demand" in the market may be highlighted, which will also aggravate the pressure of falling pig prices.
In addition, according to official news, at the end of April, the domestic sow population was 4 1.77 million, a slight decrease of 0.2% from the previous month. At present, it still exceeds the normal stock by 4 1 ten thousand. However, due to the rebound in the price of live pigs, the market sentiment has become stronger, and the phenomenon of "commercial pigs turning into sows" has appeared again in some areas. In some areas, the price of weaned piglets has even reached more than 600 yuan/head, and the market demand is in short supply. As the temperature gradually rises, the risk of pig farm diseases will intensify, and the performance of weak market demand will further intensify. Pig prices will go up and down, but it is difficult to have a big drop.
According to the statistics of Mysteel agricultural products, the number of commercial pigs slaughtered in April was 6,905,600, down 8.83% from the previous month.
On the one hand, some large-scale markets oversold in March, and some of them had plans; On the other hand, the epidemic situation in some areas of COVID-19 is severe, and pig slaughter is blocked. In the second half of the month, the market improved, and some small-scale pigs took the initiative to suppress the slaughter.
At present, the productivity of fertile sows is still above the normal stock, and the share of large-scale pig farms has increased, while the productivity of large-scale sows is limited. The overall production capacity of live pigs is expected to be within the green and safe range of normal stocks. The risk of a substantial "pig shortage" in the supply of live pigs in the future is actually very small and has no major impact. Presumably, the subsequent "pig cycle" will not fluctuate so much.
According to the monitoring of pig price system, among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs rose by 0. 14 and fell by 12, and the falling areas accounted for 54% of all monitored areas. The pig market as a whole is in a situation of "stable and falling more".
Judging from the difficulty of purchasing pigs by slaughter enterprises, it still exists. Although there is a certain phenomenon of price reduction in the northern region, the phenomenon of low-priced transactions is weak, showing a certain phenomenon of price reduction. The phenomenon of price reduction is mainly concentrated in the source of high-priced pigs, and the restraint mood in the wholesale market is still obvious.
The market sentiment is general, and the slaughtering enterprises' price-cutting sentiment has decreased.
The pig price of the breeding group showed a downward trend, while the increase of pig price in pig enterprises was obviously weakened, and the decrease of pig price in the group pig farm was obviously increased. The leading group's pig market has been lowered, and the price of pigs in key areas has dropped to a certain extent, and the goods from high-priced pigs are difficult to move.
The ex-factory price of white pigs in northern slaughter enterprises stabilized, the delivery speed was weak, and the price of pigs in slaughter enterprises dropped significantly.
Early warning of pig price trend tomorrow: Based on the recent analysis of pig market factors, it is expected that the pig price will show a phenomenon of "stable and falling more" tomorrow. I suggest you arrange flexibly according to the actual situation of the pig farm.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome to exchange views on the live pig market, grasp the market dynamics, collect and share. I believe that after all kinds of hardships, you will be thoroughly remoulded.