Because holding national debt can only get a fixed expected annualized expected return, inflation will erode this part of the expected annualized expected return, which is not good for national debt holders. Under normal circumstances, if inflation occurs, investors will sell bonds, the market demand for bonds will decrease, and the price of bonds will fall. Therefore, the relationship between inflation and the price of national debt should be reversed. In addition, the spot price of national debt is also affected by the prosperity of the world economy, including the world economic cycle and exchange rate fluctuations.

2. Policy factors

China's monetary policy, fiscal policy and macro-control policies adopted by other major economies in the world (such as expected annualized interest rate policy and exchange rate policy) will all affect the spot market of China's national debt.

3. Changes in financial markets

On the one hand, a series of measures and rules promulgated by the government bond market regulators will cause investors to reflect the "bullish" and "bearish" market, and the process of integrating this news into the spot price of government bonds will cause price fluctuations in the government bond market. On the other hand, there is a substitution relationship between national debt and other investment tools such as stocks and real estate. When the expected annualized rate of return of substitute assets changes, the price of national debt will also change.

4. Psychological factors

If investors are optimistic about a bond, even if there are no favorable factors, market participants will buy the bond, which will lead to an increase in the price of the bond; When people lose confidence in a certain national debt, even if there are no negative factors, people will short it, which will lead to the decline of the national debt price.