The industry has issued predictions that the bull market of agricultural products will continue. It is understood that the prices of agricultural products at home and abroad have shown a violent upward trend since last year, and the prices of some products have more than doubled. The data show that in 2007, corn and cotton in the United States increased by 30%, soybean by 83%, and wheat by more than 100%. In June this year, 5438+ 10 and February, CPI hit record highs, among which the price increase of agricultural products represented by grain and meat ranked first. In 2007, the grain production price in China increased by 10.26% year-on-year, up by 9.26 percentage points over the previous year, of which, grain increased by 8.95%, beans by 22.62% and potatoes by 9.04%. Under the constant inflationary pressure, apart from gold, a typical value-preserving commodity, whether this bull market can be used to fight inflation has aroused the unanimous concern of institutions and investors. Is it wise to buy such a hook product? ⊙ Our reporter Tu Yan Intern Liu Yufeng Qin Guoan
Decryption of fund operation
Generally speaking, this kind of linked agricultural products is generally a call or put option purchased by banks from international investment banks, which is not what some investors understand as "directly investing in the securities market or futures market with raised funds". In other words, most of the funds raised by banks are used to protect capital, while the income from investment options is used to obtain floating income. In addition, there is a win-win product in the market at present, that is, the greater the price fluctuation of the linked target, the higher the final rate of return, regardless of price fluctuation. Therefore, although this kind of wealth management products are linked to the futures price of agricultural products or related indexes, the final income is not necessarily positively related to the price trend of agricultural products.
Specifically, such banking products generally involve three parties: investors, banks and investment banks. Due to the restrictions of relevant policies, banks can't directly participate in securities trading, so they can only invest most of their funds in the interbank market to protect their capital, and the other part can buy options from international investment banks to obtain higher returns. When the situation is favorable and banks exercise options, investors can get corresponding returns; If the situation is unfavorable, the bank gives up exercising the option, and the lost option fee is offset by the income generated in the interbank market, realizing capital preservation or partial capital preservation.
Hook objects are different.
According to the reporter's understanding, the wealth management products related to agricultural products launched by banks can be roughly divided into two categories. One is closely related to the international futures market and linked to the agricultural product index or commodity price in the futures market; The other is linked to the stock market, that is, the funds are mainly invested in agricultural stocks in the secondary market. As far as the information held by the reporter is concerned, the former type of wealth management products have great advantages in quantity, and many banks mainly rely on such products. For example, China Merchants Bank (600036 stock market, stock bar) launched a RMB wealth management product with guaranteed floating income linked to Lehman Brothers' agricultural products index as early as June 2006165438+1October, with an expected maximum annual income of 6%. Then, in February 2007, we launched RMB and USD financial products linked to Goldman Sachs Agricultural Products Index. Bank of Communications' "Mi Lan 1-4" series products are also typical representatives in the industry.
For the latter type of wealth management products linked to stocks, the main investment direction is the stocks of agricultural enterprises such as agricultural machinery manufacturing, chemical fertilizers and pesticides, crop production and processing, and agricultural technology research. For example, the structured deposit of "Jindi No.2" issued by the Agricultural Bank of China on June 5438+065438+ 10, 2007, locked the investment object into the shares of large domestic agricultural enterprises listed in Hong Kong.
You need to distinguish between hook patterns.
The above wealth management products are linked to different objects and in different ways. The way of linking largely determines the amount of due income, and even leads to a sharp rise in the price of agricultural products but zero income from wealth management products. Therefore, investors must have a clear understanding of the hook method before buying products.
For example, the yield of "Nongqing No.3" launched by Bank of Communications is linked to the difference between the price index of wheat, corn and soybean of Deutsche Bank and the initial index, and the investment yield depends on the comprehensive performance of three agricultural products with different weights. In this way, investors should pay attention to the difference of the weight ratio of each product besides examining the linked products. For this product, the weight of wheat accounts for 45%, nearly half, and its price trend will largely determine the investment income. The yield of global agricultural stock-linked products launched by Standard Chartered Bank depends on the comprehensive performance of three stocks on the maturity date, and the poor performance of a single stock will also affect investors' income.
Product prospect and market
At present, the global securities market is generally weak due to the subprime mortgage crisis, the QDII products issued in China are almost stranded, and the newly raised QDII and IPO products encounter the cold shoulder of raising failure due to poor market conditions, but the commodity income including agricultural products is unanimously optimistic by the market and becomes a "life-saving straw". However, are bank products linked to agricultural products short-lived or have long-term investment value?
Mr. Liang Zhanlin, Director of Product Department of Citibank (China) Retail Bank, said: "Citi has long been concerned about the commodity market, and many of its products are related to agricultural products. In the near future, a product linked to a basket of stocks will also be listed as a linked object. The reason why this kind of products are not specialized and sold on a large scale like some banks is based on the consideration of diversified investment strategies. Focusing the investment direction on agricultural products is not conducive to diversifying risks, which also requires investors' ability to take risks. "
Wei Wu, vice president and senior product investment manager of consumer finance department of ABN Amro Bank (China), believes that 2008 will be a turbulent year for the global capital market. Globally, the focus of investment this year has gradually shifted from the stock market to the commodity market, especially the agricultural products market.
In addition, now "neutral" products are increasingly sought after, and such products do not need investors to make optimistic or bearish trend judgments:
The range of fluctuation determines the size of income. Citibank has launched several "win-win" structural products with guaranteed capital, and the absolute value of price fluctuation of linked stocks is directly proportional to the product income. Because the market price of agricultural products futures is also in a highly volatile state, there is no small market risk in including the commodity futures price on a certain observation day in the final income calculation formula. Therefore, Chinese and foreign banks, including Citigroup and ABN Amro, have expressed great concern about such products.
In addition, most of the products linked to agricultural products currently on sale are only linked to foreign commodity markets. Insiders explained that because most of the bank's product designs originated from abroad, the marketization of China's agricultural products market is not high, and the agricultural products index is not very referential, which has become an important reason for foreign investment banks to avoid the domestic market. This also reminds investors not to measure the investment value of such products by the domestic inflation situation when buying products.