1July 2, 997, the Asian financial turmoil swept through Thailand and the Thai baht depreciated. Soon, the storm swept through Malaysia, Singapore, Japan and South Korea. Break the scene of rapid economic development in Asia. The economies of some Asian economic powers began to slump and the political situation in some countries began to be chaotic.
So, what is the cause of the Asian financial turmoil?
After reading a series of reports about the Asian financial turmoil and my own research, I found the following reasons:
1. george soros's individuals and capitalist groups supporting him;
The influence of American economic interests and policies;
3. The economic model of Asian countries leads to.
1. george soros's personal factors and a capitalist group that supports him;
"Financial predator" and "a sleeping old wolf" are the titles for this financial geek. He once said, "As far as financial operation is concerned, it has no morality or immorality, it is just an operation. Financial market does not belong to the category of morality, it is not immoral, and morality does not exist here at all, because it has its own rules of the game. I am a participant in the financial market. I will play this game according to the established rules. I will not violate these rules, so I won't feel guilty or responsible. Judging from the Asian financial turmoil, whether I speculate or not has no effect on the occurrence of financial events. It will still happen without hype. I don't think it's immoral to speculate in foreign currency. On the other hand, I abide by the operating rules. I respect these rules and care about them. As a moral person who cares about them, I want to ensure that these rules are conducive to building a good society, so I advocate changing some rules. I think some rules need to be improved. If improvement and improvement affect my own interests, I will still support it, because the rules that need to be improved may be the cause of the incident. "
As we all know, Soros's hype about Thai baht is the fuse of the Asian financial turmoil. He is an absolutely powerful and capable financier, but it is obviously despicable to achieve his goal of obtaining huge capital by playing with the political power of Asian countries.
Second, the impact of American economic interests and policies:
1949, Oriental Group, the predecessor of New China, was established. As the number one power of capitalism, the United States has a sense of crisis. He established a capitalist United front in the Asia-Pacific region through strong economic backing: South Korea, Japan, Taiwan Province Province and even Southeast Asia all became economic vassals of the United States. This has brought economic support to the rapid development of some Asian countries. In the 1970s, the economies of some countries in Southeast Asia developed rapidly.
But in 199 1, the disintegration of the Soviet Union marked the disintegration of the socialist lineup. Of course, the United States did not allow the Asian economy to continue to develop like this, so it began to recover economic losses. For Soros's behavior, he is conniving.
Third, the economic model of Asian countries leads to:
New Matai, Japan and South Korea are all export-oriented countries. They are highly dependent on the world market. The shake of the Asian economy will inevitably lead to a situation that will affect the whole body. Take Thailand as an example. Whether Thai baht should be bought and sold in the international market is not dominated by the government, nor does it have sufficient foreign exchange reserves. Facing the speculation of financiers, the national economy is vulnerable. The economy determines politics, so the political situation in Thailand is turbulent.
The Asian financial crisis has given me profound enlightenment.
(1) The openness of a country's economy is based on its strong economic strength and stable political power. Only strong economic strength and stable political power can we talk about real economic development.
(2) Only when economists have a correct outlook on life and values can they promote social progress and development, otherwise they will not be real economists and will hinder economic development.
(3) Only by improving the comprehensive national strength can a country be in an invincible position. two
From June 65438 to June 0997, a financial crisis broke out in Asia, and the development process of this crisis was very complicated. By the end of 1998, it can be roughly divided into three stages: June 1997 to February12; 1998 1 month to1998 July; 1998 July to the end of the year.
The first stage: 65438+1July 2, 1997, Thailand announced that it would abandon the fixed exchange rate system and implement a floating exchange rate system, which triggered a financial storm sweeping Southeast Asia. On the same day, the exchange rate of Thai baht against the US dollar fell by 17%, and financial markets such as foreign exchange were in chaos. Under the influence of the fluctuation of Thai baht, Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit have become the targets of international speculators. In August, Malaysia gave up its efforts to defend Ringgit. The Singapore dollar, which has been strong, has also been hit. Although Indonesia is the latest country to be "infected", it is the most seriously affected. 10 year 10 in late October, international speculators moved to Hong Kong, an international financial center, aiming at Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system. Taiwan Province authorities suddenly abandoned the exchange rate of the new Taiwan dollar, depreciating by 3.46% a day, which increased the pressure on the Hong Kong dollar and Hong Kong stock markets. 1October 23rd 10, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1 2 1 1.47 points; On the 28th, it fell 1, 626,5438+0.80 points and fell below the 9000-point mark. Faced with fierce attacks from international financial speculators, the Hong Kong SAR Government reiterated that it would not change the current exchange rate system, and the Hang Seng Index rose to 10000. Then, 1 1 in mid-June, a financial storm broke out in South Korea in East Asia. 17 In June, the exchange rate of the Korean won against the US dollar fell to a record 1 008: 1. 2 1, the South Korean government had to seek help from the International Monetary Fund, which temporarily controlled the crisis. However, on 65438+February 13, the exchange rate of Korean won against the US dollar fell to 1 737.60: 1. The Korean won crisis has also hit the Japanese financial industry, which has invested heavily in South Korea. 1997 a series of Japanese banks and securities companies went bankrupt in the second half of the year. As a result, the Southeast Asian financial crisis evolved into the Asian financial crisis.
The second stage: 1998, Indonesia's financial turmoil resumed. In the face of the worst economic recession in history, the prescription prescribed by the International Monetary Fund for Indonesia failed to achieve the expected results. On February 1 1, the Indonesian government announced the implementation of the linked exchange rate system with a fixed exchange rate between the Indonesian rupiah and the US dollar to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah. This move was unanimously opposed by the International Monetary Fund, the United States and Western Europe. The International Monetary Fund threatened to withdraw its aid to Indonesia. Indonesia is in a political and economic crisis. On February 6/kloc-0, the exchange rate of the Indonesian rupiah against the US dollar fell below 10000: 1. Affected by this, the Southeast Asian currency market once again set off waves, with the Singapore dollar, Malaysian dollar, Thai baht and Philippine peso falling one after another. It was not until April 8 that Indonesia and the International Monetary Fund reached an agreement on a new economic reform plan that Southeast Asian currency markets were temporarily calm. 1997 The financial crisis in Southeast Asia put the Japanese economy, which is closely related to it, into trouble. The exchange rate of Japanese yen dropped from 1 15 at the end of June 1997 to 1 USD at the beginning of April 1998. In May and June, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen fell all the way, once approaching the mark of 150 yen 1 US dollar. With the sharp depreciation of the yen, the international financial situation is more uncertain and the Asian financial crisis continues to deepen.
The third stage: 65438+1At the beginning of August, 1998, international speculators launched a new round of attacks on Hong Kong in the face of the turmoil in the American stock market and the continuous decline of the yen exchange rate. The Hang Seng Index has dropped to over 6 600 points. The Hong Kong SAR Government retaliated, and the HKMA used the Exchange Fund to enter the stock market and futures market, absorbing Hong Kong dollars sold by international speculators and stabilizing the foreign exchange market at the level of 7.75 Hong Kong dollars 1 US dollar. After nearly a month of hard work, international speculators suffered heavy losses and failed to realize their attempt to use Hong Kong as a "super ATM" again. While international speculators lost in Hong Kong, they lost in Russia. 17 On August 7th, the Russian central bank announced that it would expand the floating range of the ruble against the US dollar to 6.0 ~ 9.5: 1 during the year, and postpone the repayment of foreign debts and government bonds. On September 2, the ruble depreciated by 70%. This led to a sharp drop in the Russian stock market and foreign exchange market, which triggered a financial crisis and even an economic and political crisis. The sudden change of Russian policy has greatly hurt international speculators who have invested huge amounts of money in Russian stock market, and has led to the overall violent fluctuations in the foreign exchange markets of American and European stock markets. If the Asian financial crisis was still regional before this, then the outbreak of the Russian financial crisis shows that the Asian financial crisis has gone beyond the regional scope and has global significance. By the end of 1998, the Russian economy was still in trouble. 1999, the financial crisis is over.
There are many reasons for the financial crisis from 65438 to 0997. Chinese scholars generally believe that it can be divided into direct trigger factors, internal basic factors and world economic factors.
The direct trigger factors include: (1) the impact of hot money in the international financial market. At present, there are about $7 trillion of international capital flowing around the world. Once international speculators find out which country or region is profitable, they will immediately attack the currency of that country or region through speculation to make huge profits in the short term. (2) Some Asian countries have improper foreign exchange policies. In order to attract foreign investment, they maintain a fixed exchange rate on the one hand and expand financial liberalization on the other, which provides opportunities for international speculators. For example, Thailand deregulated the capital market at 1992 before the financial system was straightened out, which made the short-term capital flow unimpeded and provided conditions for foreign speculators to speculate on the Thai baht. (3) In order to maintain a fixed exchange rate system, these countries have used foreign exchange reserves for a long time to make up for their deficits, resulting in an increase in foreign debt. (4) The foreign debt structure of these countries is unreasonable. In the case of more short-term and medium-term debts, once the outflow of foreign capital exceeds the inflow of foreign capital, and the domestic foreign exchange reserves are insufficient to make up for it, the devaluation of the country's currency is inevitable.
Internal basic factors include: (1) the high growth rate of overdraft economy and the expansion of non-performing assets. Maintaining a high economic growth rate is the common aspiration of developing countries. When the conditions for rapid growth become insufficient, in order to maintain the speed, these countries turn to foreign debt to maintain economic growth. However, due to the poor economic development, by the mid-1990s, some Asian countries were unable to repay their debts. In southeast Asian countries, the bubble blown by real estate only brought bad debts and bad debts of bank loans; As for South Korea, because it is too easy for large enterprises to obtain funds from banks, once the business conditions of enterprises are not good, the non-performing assets will expand immediately. The existence of a large number of non-performing assets in turn affects the confidence of investors. (2) The market system is immature. First, the government excessively interferes with the allocation of resources, especially the loan investment and projects in the financial system; The other is that the financial system, especially the supervision system, is not perfect. (3) The defect of "export substitution" mode. The "export substitution" model is an important reason for the economic success of many Asian countries. However, this model also has three shortcomings: first, when the economy develops to a certain stage, the production cost will increase and the export will be restrained, resulting in the imbalance of international payments in these countries; Second, when this export-oriented strategy becomes the development strategy of many countries, it will form mutual extrusion; Third, the gradual progress of products is a necessary condition for continuing to implement export substitution, and it is impossible to maintain competitiveness simply by relying on the cheap advantages of resources. These countries in Asia have not solved the above problems after achieving rapid growth.
World economic factors mainly include: (1) the negative impact of economic globalization. Economic globalization makes the economic ties of countries around the world closer and closer, but its negative effects can not be ignored, such as the intensification of interest conflicts between nation-States, the enhancement of capital mobility, and the difficulty in preventing crises. (2) Unreasonable international division of labor, trade and monetary system are unfavorable to third world countries. In the field of production, high-tech products and high-tech itself are still produced by developed countries, and the technical content of products is gradually declining to underdeveloped countries. Least developed countries can only do assembly work and produce primary products. In the field of exchange, developed countries can buy primary products at low prices and monopolize high prices to promote their own products. In the field of international finance and currency, the whole global financial system and system is also beneficial to financial powers.
The financial crisis has a far-reaching impact, exposing some deep-seated problems behind the rapid economic development of some Asian countries. In this sense, it is not only a bad thing, but also a good thing, which provides opportunities for developing countries in Asia to deepen reform, adjust industrial structure and improve macro-management. Because of the arduous task of reform and adjustment, it will take some time for these countries to fully restore their economies. However, the basic factors of economic growth in developing countries in Asia still exist. After overcoming internal and external difficulties, there is great hope for the improvement and further development of the Asian economic situation.
1997 1998, the Asian financial crisis, is another major event that has a far-reaching impact on the world economy after the world economic crisis in the 1930s. This financial crisis reflects that there are serious defects in the financial systems of all countries in the world, including many mature financial systems and economic operation modes that people think are selected through historical development. This financial crisis has exposed many problems, which need to be reflected. This financial crisis has brought us many new topics and raised the issue of establishing new financial laws and organizational forms. This book attempts to do research in this field. The central issue of this book is how to get rid of the century-old economic problems brought about by the money supply system formed by various countries and the debt derivative mechanism formed between enterprises under the new situation, when the paper money standard system has not been realized after the monetary system reform at the beginning of this century, including: (1) corporate debt burden, bank bad debts, frequent financial and debt crises; (2) Excessive social money supply, heavy banking business and increased difficulty in macro-control; (3) The government has difficulty in tax collection, and the financial crisis is intertwined with the financial crisis; (4) Inflation and social economy are intertwined, bubble economy occurs from time to time, economic fluctuations are frequent, and economic growth is often hindered; (5) Lack of enterprise funds brings operational difficulties, increases the bankruptcy rate and frequent enterprise merger activities, reduces the stability of enterprises, increases unemployment, and is not conducive to economic growth and social stability. (6) Unequal international monetary relations have brought a heavy burden to most countries in the world and caused many international economic problems. The deepest reason for the above problems is that the monetary system is not perfect and the new mechanism of inter-enterprise trading activities under the condition of socialized mass production is not fully understood. The idea of this book is to establish the authoritative intermediary system of enterprise transaction settlement-the national enterprise transaction intermediary settlement system, liberate the debt chain between enterprises, eliminate the bad debt base between enterprises and banks, thus avoiding the occurrence of debt and financial crisis, reducing the harm of inflation and bubble economy, and promoting stable economic growth. In this process of innovation, national tax revenue and fiscal expenditure will also be innovated to reduce the occurrence of fiscal deficit. At the same time, it will also produce the innovation of enterprise system, reduce the bankruptcy and merger of enterprises and enhance the stability of enterprises. In addition, it will also innovate international settlement methods and reform the use of international currency. This process is not a simple treatment of economic problems, but a correction of serious defects in the paper money system, an innovation in the money supply and circulation system, and a major change in the financial system. Moreover, this change has brought many adjustments to the economic operation mechanism.
Although the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis has its specific internal factors: sustained overheating of the economy, expansion of the economic bubble, blindness in introducing foreign capital-excessive short-term foreign debts, imperfect banking system, collusion between banks and enterprises, and large debts of enterprises, the crisis also has its external causes: the "bad" behavior of international speculators, but people should further trace back to the source and find out the essential factors of the crisis-modern financial economy and the trend of economic globalization.
Liu believes that the financial crisis is the internal content of the capitalist economic crisis, and the world economic panic of 1929- 1933 is preceded by a serious financial crisis. The Mexican financial crisis of 1994 and the East Asian financial crisis of 1997 first occurred in the capitalist world. It can be seen that the financial crisis has its institutional roots and is a crisis of capitalism. The possibility of financial crisis lies in the inherent spontaneous monetary credit mechanism of market economy. Once financial activities get out of control and the contradiction between money and money lending intensifies, the financial crisis will be manifested. The modern market economy characterized by highly developed financial activities is itself a high-risk economy, which contains the possibility of financial crisis.
Economic globalization and integration is another major feature of the contemporary world economy. Economic globalization is the highest form of market economy development beyond national boundaries. With the further development of commodity relations between countries after World War II, countries are more interdependent economically, and the international flow of goods, services, capital, technology and knowledge is more frequent, and the trend of economic globalization is more distinct. The globalization of financial activities is an important reason for the new allocation of resources in the contemporary world and the leap-forward development of economically backward countries and regions. However, with the explosive development of international credit and investment and the deepening of internal contradictions, the financial crisis will inevitably break out in those weak links with imperfect systems.
To sum up, the modern market economy not only has the crisis caused by overproduction and insufficient demand, but also the financial crisis caused by uncontrolled financial credit behavior, excessive use of new financial instruments and excessive speculation in the capital market. In the capitalist world, the crisis of this market operation mechanism is catalyzed and aggravated by the basic system.
Financial crisis is inevitable not only in capitalist countries, but also in the socialist market economy system. The imperfect financial system and out-of-control financial activities are the endogenous factors of the financial crisis. Because of this, in China's current system transformation, people should attach great importance to and earnestly do a good job in the construction of a market economy system regulated by the government, especially to make great efforts to improve the financial system and greatly enhance their ability to prevent endogenous and exogenous financial crises.
Abstract: After the outbreak of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, people conducted extensive and in-depth discussions on the causes of the crisis, pointing out the internal and external causes of the crisis, while Liu further pointed out the deep-seated reasons, that is, the modern monetary credit mechanism led to the crisis. As long as modern market economy exists, the inherent monetary credit mechanism of market economy may lead to financial crisis. However, it only happens in countries with imperfect systems and the weakest countries.
This is no exception in socialist market economy countries. Even so, we can still prevent the financial crisis by improving the financial system, and Liu pointed out a way to prevent the financial crisis.
An analysis of the causes of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia
First, the economic structure of Southeast Asian countries is unbalanced and the bubble economy collapses. The economies of Asian countries have grown rapidly in the past decade. The newly industrialized countries, which are regarded as "the four little dragons of Asia", have an annual economic growth rate as high as 9%- 10%. However, since 1996, the economy has generally slowed down for a long time, and structural imbalances have appeared to varying degrees, which are specifically manifested as follows:
1. Overinvestment has caused excessive growth of imports and excessive rise of domestic wages, weakened the competitiveness of export commodities, and formed a huge current account deficit and financial deficit. The wage increase in Thailand is much higher than that in neighboring countries, and the export growth rate has dropped sharply from 22.5% in195 to 3%. Therefore, the current account deficit of196 increased to $654.38 billion+$06.2 billion, and the foreign debt increased to $85.7 billion. In addition, due to the decline in international demand for electronic products, the export of East Asian countries declined in196, and the average annual growth rate of labor costs reached about 7%.
2. Overheating of real estate leads to increased financial risks. In recent years, Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia and other countries have a serious problem of oversupply of real estate, and a large number of houses and office buildings are idle. Real estate developers have poor capital turnover, and bad debts of banks have surged. In 1996 alone, foreign direct investment in Thai real estate reached 188 1 100 million baht, accounting for13 of foreign direct investment in Thailand. 1996, the bad debts of Thai banks reached $654.38+05.5 billion, and it is estimated that 1997 will increase to $20 billion. When the real estate bubble burst, foreign investors had doubts about Thailand's financial confidence. People are worried that the Mexican-style crisis will repeat itself in Asia, so they sell a lot of Thai baht and the crisis appears.
Second, the exchange rate mechanism of Southeast Asian countries is inflexible, and it is difficult to meet the needs of economic opening and internationalization. For more than a decade, Thailand and other countries have been implementing a basket of currencies linked to the US dollar. The weight of the US dollar in the setting of the Thai baht exchange rate is 80%, and the Thai baht is basically linked to the US dollar. This exchange rate seriously restricts the adjustment of the exchange rate as an economic lever to the import and export volume and the balance of payments. 1995, the United States and Japan reached an agreement to reduce trade friction, resulting in a strong dollar and a weak yen. Therefore, the Thai baht with a fixed exchange rate system has been continuously liberalized, which has seriously weakened the export competitiveness. The export recession has further increased the current account deficit and aggravated the original economic imbalance.
To sum up, pegging to the rising dollar is actually a detonation system, which makes the above macroeconomic imbalance unbearable on the one hand and the exchange rate too high on the other. From this point of view, this crisis is similar to the European currency crisis of 1992: the sharp adjustment of exchange rate is the last means to end the economic imbalance.
Third, the impact of international hot money led to financial market turmoil. According to the statistics of international organizations, there are at least 7.2 trillion dollars of short-term deposits and other short-term securities circulating around the world. With the popularization of computerization in major markets, transactions can be completed in an instant. When the return on capital in a certain area is considerable, it will flock to it, causing inflation. When there are problems or other economic hotspots in this area, they will disappear like the wind, causing economic recession in this area. Therefore, it is very likely to directly cause financial turmoil in a country or region or even the whole world, endangering economic stability.
The most famous speculator of huge hot money is george soros. Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir accused him of being the chief culprit in destroying the national economy at the ASEAN ministerial meeting at the end of July. Of course, this statement is biased, but it cannot be ruled out that the Thai baht will depreciate by 20% or more. According to the "ups and downs theory", the quantum fund he managed played a leading role in the previous European currency crisis and Mexican financial risks. Faced with the deterioration of Thailand's economy, propagandists have been spying for a long time. In May, they raised US$ 6 billion, went in and out wantonly, gained the price difference and made huge profits. From June to July, the Rayleigh of Quantum Fund rose sharply from 14% to 27. 1%. Relatively speaking, having a strong speculative capital structure is like planting a time bomb on the economy of Southeast Asia. In essence, the profit-seeking nature of international hot money, on the one hand, causes chaos to the affected countries, on the other hand, warns countries with serious economic structures and plays a role in correcting wrong economic policies.
4. Effective financial supervision is weak. From the financial fragility of Southeast Asian countries, we can see that:
1. Third world countries, due to their fragile financial systems and lack of experience in financial supervision, are more prone to systemic risks if they do not know enough about the risks of international financial activities and lack careful preventive measures.
2. With the global economic and financial integration and the wide application of electronic technology, financial risks have become international. With the progress of financial innovation and financial liberalization, huge risks and huge profits coexist in some new financial fields.
3. A recent survey by Bahrel Commission shows that 80% countries have encountered various troubles and difficulties in the global business of the international banking group under their supervision. The abuse of financial derivatives has intensified the turmoil in the financial market. Derivatives have derived futures and options transactions including foreign exchange and securities on the basis of traditional stocks and bonds. At present, there are 1200 kinds of these derivatives. The competition is fierce, and the transaction volume is increasing year by year. On the one hand, it meets the needs of economic development and customer investment, on the other hand, it creates trading means and conditions for excessive speculation and financial turmoil.