The day after the Fed's decision, the bond market suffered a? A massacre? . On the evening of March 18th, Beijing time, the yield of 1-year US Treasury bonds (which is a global risk asset? Pricing anchor? ) broke through 1.75%, setting a new high since January 22. The yield of 3-year US Treasury bonds has exceeded 2.5% for the first time since August 219.

The yield between 2-year and 1-year US Treasury bonds, which is the most concerned part of the yield curve, once hit 16.15 basis points overnight, the largest since July 215, and reached 155 basis points in the later trading. On Thursday, the yield of two-year US Treasury bonds rose by 2.1 basis points to .1531%. This yield trend is usually in line with interest rate expectations.

in the near future, American bond yields have become the key to market sentiment. With the gradual promotion of the new crown vaccine in the United States, the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus plan has entered the final stage, and the prospect of economic recovery in the United States is more clear. In the near future, before the outbreak of the new crown, the yield of American debt has been rising to a high point. However, the rise in US bond yields has also weakened the attractiveness of other risky assets, leading to a decline in the US stock market in the previous period. Since February, the rapid rise in commodity prices has greatly increased global inflation expectations. With the accelerated recovery of American economy and the sharp rise of inflationary pressure, the yield of American 1-year Treasury bonds has steadily increased from .9% at the beginning of the year. On March 12th, the daily average exceeded 1.6% to 1.69%, the highest since February 22.

qi Xiang, a researcher of western futures stock index, will say:? The recent rapid increase in the yield of American bonds is mainly due to two reasons: first, the accelerated improvement of overseas epidemics and the continuous development of overseas resumption and production have caused the real interest rate to rise again; Secondly, the $1.9 trillion economic rescue plan has contributed to inflation. People's expectations are rising rapidly. In addition, the adjustment of the Fed's policy framework has also systematically raised the average expected long-term inflation level in the United States. ? Since February this year, overseas epidemics have begun to improve rapidly, the recovery of overseas work and production has continued to advance, and the improvement of the real economy has caused the return on capital and the real interest rate to rise slowly. Interest rates have begun to show signs of rising. Subsequently, the US Senate and the House of Representatives passed the coordination procedure, which greatly reduced the difficulty for Biden's team to implement the $1.9 trillion economic rescue plan. The accelerated implementation of the new round of fiscal stimulus plan in the United States has brought about growth and inflation expectations. In this case, the sustained recovery of overseas economy and the expectation of inflation have prompted the yield of 1-year US Treasury bonds to rise rapidly.