Today's view Shanghai Aluminum continued to rebound last week. On Thursday, the important integer mark of 16400 was tested once. Although there is no effective breakthrough, it has injected great confidence into the market. However, in recent days, crude oil has plummeted continuously, and Lun Aluminum is under pressure. Shanghai aluminum was blocked by the surge, and the transaction released a huge amount. The main force may partially reduce its holdings on rallies. The short-term support below temporarily pays attention to the 16200 line. In operation, short-term multiple orders can take profits on rallies and pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips. Support level: 16200, pressure level: 16300. (Liu Wei)
Lead and zinc today's view deviates from European and American economic data, the stock market plummeted, crude oil fell below 100, economic expectations declined in the later period, and commodity performance was weak. Lead and zinc will continue to oscillate around 15500. (Mo Guogang)
Today's Views on Precious Metals The disappointing US non-farm payrolls data last Friday night boosted the safe-haven charm of gold, with investors selling crude oil and stocks to buy gold. Gold ended its three-day decline and closed slightly higher. However, the European election results made the euro weak, and the strong gold price was heavily resisted. Investors are not advised to take risky measures. Silver, which is also a precious metal, follows the trend of gold and it is appropriate to wait and see. (Zhu Wenlong)
Cotton today's view crude oil plummeted, the market focus turned to European debt, and macro factors dominated the market this week. Speculation and wait-and-see, buy far and throw near arbitrage can continue to hold. (Chen Shumin)
Corn today's view CBOT corn closed mixed on Friday. Contracts have been strengthened in recent months, but contracts have declined in recent months. The far-moon contract is under pressure from the negative fundamentals that the planting area has reached a 75-year high. Recently, the corn in North and South Ports is stable, the high-quality corn is stronger, the low-quality corn in North China is weaker, and the market in South China is relatively stable. On the whole, at present, the supply of corn is gradually recovering, and it is unlikely that the price of corn will skyrocket and plummet. It is expected that the fluctuation trend will continue in the later period. In operation, wait and see for the time being. (Don)
Trend of soybean import and export The tariff rate of soybean import is 3%, and the tariff of soybean export is zero. According to the import data released by the General Administration of Customs, 20 10 imported 54.8 million tons of soybeans, up 28.8% year-on-year. In 20 1 1 year, the cumulative import of soybeans was 52.64 million tons, the cumulative quantity decreased by 3.9%, and the cumulative amount increased by 18.9%. 20 1 1, the cumulative import of edible vegetable oil was 6.57 million tons, the cumulative quantity decreased by 4.4%, and the cumulative amount increased by 28.0%. 20110,000 tons of soybeans were imported in June, 3.83 million tons in February and 4.83 million tons in March, and the cumulative import volume in June-March was 1.33 million tons, up 2 1.6% and 65,438. (Yu Ruiguang)
Soybean fundamentals Last Friday, international crude oil prices continued to fall sharply, and the international commodity market was under heavy selling pressure. Boosted by export demand, CBOT soybean futures market got rid of the drag of surrounding markets on Friday, broke away from the intraday low and closed slightly higher, showing the technical characteristics of staged top. Analyst Informa estimated that the soybean planting area in the new season in the United States was 75.822 million acres, which was higher than the 73.9 million acres estimated by the US Department of Agriculture at the end of March. At present, the driving force of American beans is weakening, and the weakness of surrounding markets may lead to systematic panic in the market. Especially after the commodity fund holds a record long position in the United States and soybeans, the possibility of profit-taking by the bulls may be further increased. Affected by the surge in US soybeans and the decrease in supply in South America, the market's expectation for China to release lower-priced reserve soybeans has increased. Domestic spring sowing work has been carried out one after another. According to the preliminary forecast, the soybean area in Jilin Province will decrease by about 30%, and the soybean planting enthusiasm in Heilongjiang Province is insufficient, and it is expected that the area will still be greatly reduced. The domestic soybean spot market has obvious pattern of strong soybean meal and weak oil, and the soybean market is stable as a whole. The decline in the benefit of pig breeding restricts the follow-up replenishment, the demand for long soybean meal may be dragged down, and the price of soybean oil falls weakly under policy pressure. (Yu Ruiguang)
Liandou today suggested that crude oil lead the decline, the selling pressure in the international financial market was heavy, and the risk of a high fall of US soybeans increased. Because of the average performance of its own demand, Liandou has insufficient upward momentum and maintains a weak oscillation trend. Soybean reserves are expected to increase, and the situation of falling or not rising is expected to continue. It is expected that the soybean market will continue its weak trend today, and the futures price will continue to look for support. Investors are advised to take the idea of reducing pounds on rallies and reduce the original multiple orders. It is estimated that the upper resistance level of soybean 130 1 contract today is 46 10, and the lower support level is 4560. (Yu Ruiguang)
Even today's operation of soybean meal suggests that the systemic risk of financial market is coming, and the high level of US soybeans has dropped, and it is expected to continue to adjust downwards in the short term. It is expected that even soybean meal will open lower today, and investors are advised to reduce their previous orders and wait and see. The soybean meal 1209 contract is highly competitive. At present, the position exceeds130,000 lots, and the control of financial factors on the disk surface has exceeded the fundamental factors, and the future upside is limited, so it is not appropriate to chase more. It is estimated that today's soybean meal 130 1 contract has an upper resistance level of 3340 and a lower support level of 3290. (Yu Ruiguang)
Today's oil view, the new employment data in the United States in April was significantly lower than market expectations. Global stock markets and crude oil prices suffered heavy losses. Today, the situation in Europe is once again turbulent, and the dollar jumped. Macro risk is the most important influencing factor of the day. The monthly supply and demand report released on Thursday will predict the output of new works in the United States. Although it is not enough to make up for the previous year's reduction in production, the expected increase in production may still bring staged pressure to the market, and the unilateral risk is greater. Hedging transactions of vegetable oil or soybean meal 1209 and soybean oil 1209 can continue to be held. (Yang Jiuzun)
White sugar today's point of view, the outer raw sugar was supported by oversupply technology this week, and it was upside down in domestic time. The production and sales data in April showed that the carried-over commercial inventory increased by 600,000 tons year-on-year. Macro euro zone worries are heating up, the dollar rebounds, crude oil weakens, and market risk aversion improves. 130 1 contract approaches the support level in the range of 6300-63 10, and the 5-day moving average 1209 continues to take profit. The price difference between September and 65438+ 10 is approaching -200 points again, so we should pay attention to the opportunity of return and rebound. (Angelie Liu)
PTA's view today is that the data shows that economic growth is slowing down, and the Secretary-General of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said that OPEC's increase in production is aimed at curbing high oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures fell sharply, with short-term fluctuations between 8500 and 8700. Operationally, temporarily trade in the range of 8500-8700. If it falls below 8500 points, you can add an empty order. (Li Xiaowei)
The US Department of Labor announced on Friday that the number of non-farm employees increased by115,000 in April, far below market expectations. US crude oil futures fell below the $0/00 mark per barrel on Friday, and all the way to the lowest level in three months. The net long positions of speculative funds in WTI and Brent crude oil have been greatly reduced, and short-term international crude oil may continue to fall. Last week, LLDPE futures continued to fall, and businessmen's mentality was generally pessimistic. Most of them are short-selling offspring and continue to make profits to digest inventory. However, demand is difficult to improve, and there are few company transactions. May is the off-season of LLDPE demand. In the case of weak adjustment of crude oil, LLDPE may continue to weaken, and the market outlook is concerned about the trend of crude oil and the ex-factory price changes of petrochemical manufacturers. (Zhang Weitao)
Today's view of methanol CFR China methanol was still rising last weekend, and the influence of the external market will continue in the near future. In the operation of methanol futures, short-term shock adjustment is the main idea; The medium and long-term lines are still dominated by multiple orders, controlling positions. (Li Dianchun)
Today's view of Coca-Cola is influenced by the slowdown of global economic demand. The situation that the supply of coking coal and coke exceeds demand has not changed. Although it was the peak demand season in previous years, the spot transaction this year is still poor and the price is weak. However, there are favorable expectations on the policy side, and the uncertainty of long and short is increasing. Investors are advised to wait and see (Li Dianchun)
Today, the viewpoint of rubber and PVC is 1. Last Wednesday, the global PMI data was not good, and the US data on Thursday and Friday was not as good as expected. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, and the slow risk sentiment in the previous European market revived. The ineffective market of austerity policy turns to Draghi to establish fiscal union, which will be accompanied by risk repricing. 2. Last Friday, Yunnan 28200, with the passage of time, the supply peak approached, but due to the decline in fixed assets investment, the growth rate of passenger and freight volume has been at a low level. Rubber may be weaker than other industrial products, and the industry uncertainty is the drought situation in Yunnan and northern Thailand. 3. The operation suggestion is that the key price of 26850 has strong support. If it falls below, you can participate in short orders with a stop loss of 27 100, otherwise wait and see, focusing on spot linkage and risk sentiment in the domestic market dominated by the stock market. (Liu Dongfeng)
Tianqi's point of view is for reference only.