The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed down 7% at $65,438+04.77 on Friday. This marks the first time that it has closed below 15 since March 9. Considering the volatility index, the market has digested the negative news of the past period, and VIX has dropped from the high of $50 in February to 14 today. Gold futures (/GC) rose slightly this week and closed at 13 16 USD on Friday. Crude oil prices rose nearly 2% on Friday to close at a 52-week high of $69.72. The oil market seems to be worried about ending Iran's nuclear deal and US sanctions on the country's oil. The exchange rate of the US dollar has been rising continuously recently, reaching the highest level since the end of 20 17.
Earnings will slow down from the peak in the past few weeks. Traders will pay close attention to the performance of market leaders Disney (DIS) and NVIDIA (NVDA) in ESPN and graphics chip markets. The PPI report (0.3% forecast) to be released this week will also pay close attention to the signs of how tariffs affect steel prices. Friday's import and export price report should reveal the potential impact of falling dollar and tariffs on inflation.
Over the weekend, all eyes were on Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett. Because this is another big annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway in Omaha, about 50,000 people come from all over the world every year. Buffett began to buy Apple shares on 20 16. Today, Berkshire Hathaway has accumulated 240 million shares of Apple, becoming the fourth largest shareholder of Apple. Companies with a large shareholding in Berkshire Hathaway usually have another wave of growth after the annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway.
Technical quotation
Apple (AAPL) reached a new high, reaching a maximum of 184.25 USD. Apple has taken another step towards its 1 trillion mark, and there is still about 7% space from 1 trillion. Apple is likely to become the first listed company in history to reach 1 trillion. Judging from Apple's technical graphics, there is a great opportunity to continue to rise and break through, and Apple's buying volume in the past week is very large. The turnover these days is about 70% more than usual. Apple's huge trading volume is due to the news that Warren Buffett bought a lot in the past quarter.
Driven by Apple, SMH semiconductor industry has also produced a strong rebound. Next, we should pay attention to whether SMH can successfully cross 100.5 USD. If it successfully crosses 102.5 USD, SMH semiconductor industry will re-enter the technology bull market.
It is also worth noting that oil broke through the two-year high resistance and reached $69.79. The biggest geopolitical reason that may affect oil prices in recent weeks may be Trump's interaction with Iran. As long as the oil price can break through the $70 mark, it may reach the range of $ 72-74. Please continue to pay attention to energy sector.
The XLE energy sector is around $74 and is expected to follow the high oil price and return to the strong resistance of $78.
From the perspective of ES, the price rebounded to the bottom of the triangle, and the time for raising interest rates in June became shorter and shorter. ES is likely to exert its strength before and after raising interest rates. According to the good economic data now, I think ES and the market will make great efforts to rise. After all, the market has fallen from the high point in February, with a correction of about 10% and a sideways adjustment for more than two months. If the market price moves to the triangle low point next week, or near the 200-day moving average price of 2605, this is another recommended buying price. Now the two lines of the triangle will overlap. From a technical point of view, before the intersection of triangles, there is usually a unilateral explosion. If the market situation gets worse, after buying the market at the bottom of the triangle, the atmosphere of the market gets worse and the market continues to fall below ES2520. It's best to stop loss first and reduce the goods in hand, and then enter the market after the market calms down.