The better the performance, the higher the stock price; If the performance is not good, the stock price will go down accordingly. But this is not absolute at all. The operating performance of some stocks is only a few cents per share, but their prices are several times higher than the performance.
Tickets are still high, which is normal in the stock market.
As the stock price is determined by competition, the final transaction price will be decided by the highest bidder as long as the shareholders are willing, have enough funds and abide by the law in the stock trading process.
Theoretically speaking, the influence of operating performance on stock price is usually expressed by two formulas, one is the static calculation formula of stock price, the other is the dynamic calculation formula, and the net calculation formula is as follows:
P=L/i
Where P is the stock price, L is the after-tax profit per share, and I is the average investment profit rate that investors can get when making other investments. Generally, savings rate is used instead, because savings is the most common and convenient investment method that investors can engage in at present.
The significance of this formula is that when investors can get the income I per yuan from other investments, if they want to get the income L from investing in stocks, the amount of funds they need to pay is P, and the income from investing in stocks is equal to other investments.
If the interest rate of one-year time deposit is 10.98% and the after-tax profit of a stock is 0.66 yuan per share, the price of the stock is 6.0 1 yuan according to the above formula. At this time, if you invest 6.0 1 yuan in stocks or deposit it in the bank, the investment income will be the same.
In the above formula, the stock price is directly proportional to the operating performance and inversely proportional to the average profit rate of other investments. If the operating performance of listed companies improves or the savings rate decreases, the stock price will rise. For example, after May 1996, the People's Bank of China lowered the interest rate of residents' savings twice, which led to the stock price in Shanghai stock market more than doubling.
but
It is inaccurate to calculate the stock price with this formula. In fact, the stock price of the stock market is not determined by this, and the factors that affect the stock price change are not only operating performance and average investment profit rate. In addition, listed companies
The company's operating performance will also change with the competition in the operating environment and product market. In the above example, if the operating performance of listed companies drops to 0.55 yuan per share next year, according to this formula, their share prices will fall to 0.
5 yuan is more. If investors predict that the performance of listed companies will decline in the next year, they will not buy shares at the price of 6.0 1 yuan per share, but only at the price of 5 yuan.
The above method for calculating the stock price is the net value method. Assuming that the selected parameters such as after-tax profit and savings interest rate of the stock remain unchanged, the results will definitely have considerable errors.
Although it is difficult to express the stock price with an accurate formula, one thing is that it is always in direct proportion or positive correlation with the performance of listed companies, that is, after-tax profits. The greater the after-tax profit, the higher the investor's investment income, and correspondingly, the higher the stock price.
Third, the average profit rate and stock price.
The average profit rate is an objective law about capital flow, and its functions are as follows:
When there is a difference in the investment profit rate between the two departments, the funds will flow from the department with low profit rate to the department with high profit rate until the investment profit rate of the two departments is basically equal. To express the law of average profit rate in a popular phrase is: water flows downwards and funds go to places with high profit rate.
The stock price is directly affected by the supply of funds. As the capital entering the stock market increases, the stock price will rise. For example, as soon as the bullish news comes out, peripheral funds will enter the stock market one after another, causing the stock price to rise.
1994 The "three major policies" were announced at the end of July, 17,1995 After the announcement of the suspension of treasury bonds futures in May, a large amount of funds were induced to enter the market, which led to the stock market soaring to varying degrees. When the stock market funds are withdrawn, the stock price will fall.
When the investment profit rate in a certain field changes, there will be potential differences between the stock market and the investment profit rate in this field. According to the law of average profit rate, there will be capital flow between the stock market and the investment field, and the result of capital flow will cause the change of stock price.
When investors invest in the stock market, they expect to get excess profits, that is, to get higher than the average social return on investment. And all the operations (buying and selling) of investors in the stock market are the concentrated expression of the law of average profit rate. On the whole, the law of average profit rate has the following four effects on stock price.
1, positioning the stock price
completely
The motivation for most investors to buy stocks is that the stock price will rise, and the increase within one year is definitely higher than the investment field they can set foot in. Otherwise, investors will invest their money in other areas with high profit margins. And investors
Due to the continuous investment in the stock market, the stock price will gradually rise, which will lead to a decline in the stock price yield. When the result of the capital movement makes the stock price return close to the average level in other fields, investors buy.
The returns of stocks and other investments are basically the same. At this time, the flow of funds will tend to be flat, and the stock price will remain at a considerable level, neither rising nor falling. Therefore, the law of average profit rate is determined by the stock price.
The role of bits.
For ordinary citizens, their economic strength is small, and they have to take care of their work. At this stage, their main investment channels are bank savings, bond purchase and stock investment. Because there is almost no bank deposit.
There are risks and it doesn't take much time and energy, so bank savings are the first choice for ordinary citizens to invest. If you want to invest in stocks, you will generally take the bank interest rate as the expected return of stock investment. When investing in stocks
When the income is greater than the bank deposit interest rate, people will choose stocks; On the contrary, when the bank deposit rate is higher than the stock investment rate, people will choose to save. Therefore, when a stock market investor is more rational and mature.
By then, the investment income of the stock market will be basically equal to the one-year savings rate of the place where it is located, so its share price will be stable at a commensurate level.
The investment profit rate of the stock market is usually measured by the reciprocal of the stock price return rate-the average price-earnings ratio of the stock market. Because the relationship between the investment profit rate of the stock market and the average P/E ratio is reciprocal, when the stock price yield is equal to the bank's one-year savings rate, there will be:
Average P/E ratio of stock market × one-year bank deposit rate = 1.
When the deposit interest rate of the bank is determined, the price-earnings ratio of the stock market will stabilize at a corresponding level, and the stock price will be determined accordingly.
Average price-earnings ratio of stock market = 1/ one-year bank deposit rate.
2, causing the stock price to rise and fall.
According to the law of average profit rate, when the investment profit rate around the stock market changes, funds always flow from the department with low profit rate to the department with high profit rate, which leads to the transfer of funds. At present, the main areas that affect the stock market funds are bank savings, bond market, futures market, real estate and so on. In addition, business, industrial investment and collection also have a certain impact on the stock market.
silver
Bank savings and bond market: when the interest rates of savings and bonds are adjusted, the income balance between the stock market and the savings or bond market will be broken, and funds will be transferred to pursue higher profits. Specifically, when the interest rate of savings or bond issuance increases.
At that time, the investment value of the stock market will be correspondingly reduced, and investors will sell stocks and put funds into savings or bonds, which will lead to a decline in stock prices; On the contrary, when the interest rate of savings or bonds falls, people will quit saving.
Or the bond market withdraws funds to invest in the stock market, which eventually leads to a rise in stock prices.
Among the financial assets owned by China residents, savings deposits account for more than 90%, followed by bonds, and these two areas absorb the largest amount of funds. Therefore, the adjustment of bank interest rate or bond issuance rate has the greatest impact on the stock price. For example, 1996, the People's Bank of China lowered the deposit interest rate of residents twice, which led to a sharp rise in the stock prices of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets.
Futures: Because futures have the characteristics of high risk and high return, the futures market in China has also absorbed a lot of hot money, and there are many securities business departments in China to act as agents for futures business, so it is very convenient to transfer funds between the stock market and futures.
while
When the futures market is hot, it will often attract funds from the stock market, leading to a downturn in the stock market and a decline in the stock price; When the futures market is light, the stock market has more funds and more stock prices.
Firm. For example, on May1995 18, when the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that it would suspend all treasury bond futures business, a large amount of funds quickly poured into the stock market, which eventually led to a skyrocketing stock market, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose respectively on this day.
3 1% and 23.5%.
In addition, when the real estate industry, collection industry, commerce and industrial investment around the stock market are relatively prosperous, these areas will also attract some capital to enter the stock market due to the temptation of high profit margins.
Kim. For example, in Wenzhou, China, because local residents are good at business and industrial investment, and they can achieve high profit rate in these industries, even when the market is hot, their securities trading business is relatively cold compared with other cities.
Safe.
Accordingly, the transfer of funds within the stock market will also lead to the rise and fall of stock prices. When investors think that a stock has investment value, considerable funds will flood into the stock, thus prompting its price to rise; When?
When the prospect of a stock is not good, investors will sell the stock and withdraw funds from it, which will lead to the decline of the stock price. For example, when the interim annual report of 1996 was published, the performance of a stock was still 0.70 per share.
Yuan duo. On the day of information disclosure, its price dropped by about 30%.
3, leading to the return of the stock price.
When the share price of a stock market rises too fast, the spread income of the stock will be obvious.
Beyond its territory. Under the temptation of high profits, the influx of peripheral funds will further raise the stock price and push the stock index up. Due to the inertia of capital influx, stock indexes tend to rise to relatively high points.
At this time, the funds entering the stock market have been relatively surplus, and the price-earnings ratio is high. The excessive stock price is no longer attractive to funds. Compared with the surrounding investment markets, the return on investment in the stock market is obviously low. This is the average profit rate indicator.
This law will also be applied to the stock market, which will guide the funds to flow from the stock market to other investment markets. Some more rational investors will take the lead in withdrawing funds, and the stock price will start to fall, which will lead to a joint marketing reaction and eventually lead to a stock market crash.
The decline makes the stock index return to the level suitable for the investment profit rate of the surrounding areas, which is the reason why the stock market will plummet after the skyrocketing. Conversely, when the stock market plummets and the stock price is too low, the stock price yield will be raised.
If the P/E ratio is high, the investment value of stocks will be significantly higher than other investment markets. At this time, under the action of the average profit rate, funds will be transferred from the surrounding markets to the stock market, leading to a rebound in the stock price.
80 years
In the late generation, the Tokyo stock market in Japan rose by more than 30% for several years, and the spread income of the stock market was much higher than that of other industries, so the funds entering the stock market snowballed and the Nikkei index decreased from 1986.
1300
From 0: 00 to the peak of 65438+39000 in 0989, its price-earnings ratio is about 100 times, and the bubble economy is serious. In the following years, the Tokyo stock market collapsed and entered a difficult adjustment stage.
Duan. During the period of 1995, the Nikkei index fell above 14000, only 38% of the highest point, and almost returned to the starting point from the end point. As of now, the Nikkei index is still at 2.
Wandering around eight o'clock Similarly, Hong Kong stocks
The local increase of 1993 exceeded 100%, and 1994 reached 12000 at the beginning of the year.
There are many peaks, but today the Hang Seng Index is still hovering around 12000. The course of China stock market in the past five years is basically the same. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets started in February of 1990 and April of 199 1 respectively.
In a word, due to the effect of getting rich from stock trading, China residents poured a lot of money into the stock market in just two years, which led to a sharp rise in stock prices. As of 1992, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Composite Index have changed from
100 points rose to 780 points and 24 1 point respectively, with an average annual increase of 179% and 68% respectively. 1993 in the first half of the year, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes reached a maximum of 1558 points.
After 368 points, the stock market entered the adjustment stage. Today, four years later, although the Shenzhen Composite Index hit a new high, the Shanghai Composite Index is still hovering below 1558.